You don't have to be a market genius to know that with a major and expected approval approaching in about six months, BDSI is not headed for $5. BDSI has already had a 50% correction from its high. The approval of Belbuca triggers a significant payment of $50 million from Endo. I have some doubts about the company myself, but I think it's a good trade through October.
I generally agree but doubt that Teva will divest generic Epi unless absolutely forced to. And no matter what the marketing power of whoever owns it, if AB rated it can be substituted for a branded product. You don't need marketing for that.
I don't think there is any serious doubt that the only AB approved generic Epi-Pen--assuming of course that such approval is forthcoming--has more potential market value than a branded pen.
If it happens, the most likely outcome is that they will divest the Mylan Epi-Pen and retain the generic. And we'll have a larger company selling the generic. How is that bad?
I exited at $15 with a small profit and am now back in with a larger position and a 9.70 basis. I tend to avoid binary situations unless I am really confident. I do intend to hold through Belbuca approval. In the case of the gel, I couldn't help recalling BPAX's failed Libigel, touted as the "female Viagra," which had a spectacularly successful small P2 but was done in by unexpected high placebo results in a larger P3.
Around 2000, stocks like SQNM were trading in the hundreds because of catchwords like "individualized medicine." I believe HGSI traded over $200--eventually it crashed under a buck. This is not like that at all. After all these years I think SQNM is finally close to a profit.
Actually the vascular 510 (k) could be a pretty big deal. I'm picking up a few shares on any additional weakness, and I emphasize a few.
The way this company took to get where it is now was pretty awful, but they have a real chance given the safety record of the new filter. The market opportunity given in the presentation for OM, HCC, and ICC combined is a range from over $600 million to about $1.3 billion, and if you add liver metastasis from colorectal it's $2-$4 billion.
Cramer is on board again. A month ago he said avoid the turmoil. Now "it's a good spec."
Another thing which could move the stock is any kind of reimbursement breakthrough. They said UK block grants were pending.
They also have a major catalyst ahead this year in the interim look at the HCC and ICC trials. You certainly know that a stock may appreciate before a major event. The key for the trade, and for the company which would like a higher stock price in order to raise funds on better terms, is to have analysts generating interest in the stock. With all of the emphasis now on highly effective new drugs, Wall Street seems to have written CHEMOSAT off as an outdated technology. 10% institutional ownership is pathetic. It's up to them to make the case that it can still play a useful role.
I've been following the stock since well before Elvis, the then board guru on Delcath, migrated to Investor Village. I'm frankly only looking for a trade, not a long-term investment. I've held long enough so as not to create a wash sale if I decide to sell for a loss, which I may well do, not because I don't think Delcath has a chance, but because short term I see several better opportunities elsewhere, which I only became aware of after my Delcath purchase. I don't have a huge number of shares, and my basis is around 1.20. Any decent rally and I'm gone. I've learned not to linger with a loser.
And I say again that it is silly to talk about "dilution" when there are so few shares outstanding. Your pessimism is a crashing bore. The stock is invisible to retail buyers until coverage is initiated by somebody. And with numerous potential catalysts approaching, I believe there will be coverage soon, and that the pps will appreciate considerably. The beauty of it is that the pps could appreciate a lot, and the market cap would still be tiny!
Suppose a brokerage started DCTH with a $5-$10 price target. That's not out of the question. It's cancer, next quarter there will be two late stage trials, including a registration trial, and the current market cap is extremely low. This could be $3 in a heartbeat.