I have no doubt at all that prices and valuations are "manipulated" by those who have the power, money and influence to do it to their advantage. But you are right, it's overused for sure.
Yes, that's what I've noticed too. They keep saying it's a hedge against armageddon, but in the same breath get flustered by its "manipulation" and price moves (in US$). Aapl was right a few years ago when he said "you can't eat gold". It really is little use to consumers, but a great political bargaining chip for nations, it seems.
I am still thinking of hedging against armageddon, but that will take the form of food and water sources, and local networks of people who will work together if a crisis happens.
What do you think about physical PMs as an inflation hedge? I know there are a lot of gold bugs out there, but not sure if it's just a fad or if they have a good idea there.
If the market is trending down steadily, then you can buy and hold for a while. If it's choppy or trending up or even just stagnant, I would not hold it more than a few days.
I tend to believe you about the market heading higher in the longer run. There is just so much political and economic pressure to keep the market afloat and I don't think governments and CBs are out of bullets yet. I think they will try to keep this dying beast alive for as long as possible, all the while trying to protect their own interests. That is key, because if they were honest about what needed to be done and did it, they would likely not remain in power and we would experience some pain for a period of time as valuations and expectations came back to reality. The sheeple of the world like to be told everything is A-OK and want to believe that 'free' stuff really is free. And politicians like to pander to them. But we know that cannot last.
Possibly so, but I would be cautious if price moves or better yet closes above 1910. I would not rule out a run to 2000 before all is said and done on this rally. I am still bearish overall, but I think it's going to take a lot of shaking to get the bulls discouraged.
Seems like the Dems and Libs don't have much diversity in their choices this election. They're mostly old, rich, white people to choose from. Hillary will see to it that Bernie is emasculated before the nomination though. She'll be the Dem nominee, whatever it takes. It's her last chance at glory.
At some point, the bears will take profits and bulls will jump back in. I don't think the bulls are discouraged yet and are probably waiting to buy the dip again.
Blowing something up in the ME is certainly a possibility. I see the whole 'market' these days as a political tool. Economics and fundamentals are irrelevant (until they're not) lately. Then again, I am usually late or early to the party, so I could be too late in my ideas here. The upside is that I am only playing with about 10% of my portfolio with UCO and/or UVXY and other gambling instruments. The rest is safely in cash and TIPs for the time being -- maybe for the next few years even, if the market does what we think it should do.
Most of my 401k is in cash and TIPs. I plan on buying when we get to a decent valuation on the S&P. That might still be quite a while yet though.
It does seem early for a run. I am just speculating of course, based on past experience... which we know is not a guarantee of future results. :-) We both know that anything can happen. This is a market for day traders with all the volatility.
If this rally takes hold, I would expect price to reach nearest major resistance at 2040. I would short the market at that point. But if this idea becomes too popular, then never mind.
Trump scares both the Dems and the Reps. He's not playing by the political rulebook that they all stick to. He brings up forbidden subjects and points out inefficiencies in the established system. That's why he's appealing to so many people. Kinda the same for Bernie, only on the left side. People are tired of the same old political circus and so Bernie and Trump are getting traction in this cycle.
Yes, it's the 'premium' value that I didn't understand where it comes from. It appeared to be just the different between the cash SPX value and the ES value, but seems a little more complicated than that.