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Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Cla Message Board

bryangoldsmith 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 25, 2014 12:37 AM Member since: Feb 13, 1999
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  • There are certainly people on both side of this stock. Some love it, others hate it. One thing seems to always ring clear though. It's not a matter of if with this stock, it's when. When will it take off? You can pick good companies, you can't pick when they will be successful. I feel this is a good company, and it's only a matter of when with ARCO.

    My question is, what are the long-term downside arguments? Tell me why this stock will not succeed. Kirchner? She'll be out very soon. Currency? At some point it will level off and regroup. Growth? ARCO knocks it out of the park quarter after quarter, same store sales and new stores, and without CapEx we'd be sitting on bigger profits. Economy? The middle class is quickly growing in Latin/South America. Balance sheet? They own something like 90% of their stores which carries heavy assets to balance the long term (very manageable) debt.

    So what is it? I don't get it. I am a young guy. I have a lot of working years ahead of me. But I am piling money into this company as fast as I can. Because I don't see a single scenario in which ARCO fails. Which scares me, because I realize it is certainly possible, but I don't see the downside play. So tell me - what is the long-term downside to ARCO?

    Oh yeah, and it pays a ~2.5% dividend. I honestly do not see a better buy and hold forever stock to maximize risk vs. reward. Someone educate me and tell me why investors will not be sitting in a pot of gold in 10 years with this stock.

  • Reply to

    back to 8,6o??????????

    by estudiobtl Jul 15, 2014 4:14 PM
    bryangoldsmith bryangoldsmith Jul 21, 2014 8:01 PM Flag

    You really love to hate this stock, don't you?

  • Reply to

    back to 8,6o??????????

    by estudiobtl Jul 15, 2014 4:14 PM
    bryangoldsmith bryangoldsmith Jul 20, 2014 10:18 PM Flag

    I hope we do go back to 8.60 --- I will buy even more --- this is a buy and forget. Hold it 20 years, you won't regret it.

  • Reply to

    Only a idiot would own this trash

    by tomdavis415 Jun 3, 2014 1:44 AM
    bryangoldsmith bryangoldsmith Jul 4, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    June 3 - $8.99. One month later - $11.11 plus a $.06 dividend. A nice 24.3% return over the last month. Sure wish I was an idiot for every stock I own.

  • Reply to

    Only a idiot would own this trash

    by tomdavis415 Jun 3, 2014 1:44 AM
    bryangoldsmith bryangoldsmith Jun 10, 2014 12:05 AM Flag

    June 3 close: $8.99 Today: $10.37 That's $1,038 per 1000 shares for those of you scoring at home and roughly 934% annual gain. Huh. Sure, I'll take my 1000 shares at $83.95/share. Here's your 53.60/month. I'll even forget the dividend!

  • Reply to

    Only a idiot would own this trash

    by tomdavis415 Jun 3, 2014 1:44 AM
    bryangoldsmith bryangoldsmith Jun 10, 2014 12:01 AM Flag

    Way underwater on his $53.60/month. Hate to say it but, as my three year old daughter loves to say, "See, I told ya!"

  • Reply to

    Only a idiot would own this trash

    by tomdavis415 Jun 3, 2014 1:44 AM
    bryangoldsmith bryangoldsmith Jun 3, 2014 2:09 AM Flag

    Wow. Insightful. You obviously understand this company very well. I'll buy your shares. In fact, how about this. I'll buy your shares on a 30 year loan at 6% interest (the dividend will cover half that). What do you own? 1000 shares? 2000? Per 1000 shares I will pay you 53.60 monthly for 30 years. Total repayment of 19,296 over the life of the loan. So if you own 2000 shares, in 30 years you will have almost $40,000 (roughly $20.00 per share). What will I have?

  • Reply to

    Good Value

    by cm199178 May 27, 2014 3:47 PM
    bryangoldsmith bryangoldsmith May 27, 2014 7:16 PM Flag

    It's not for the faint of heart but in the end I believe it is a gold mine, long term.

  • Reply to

    am i the only ARCO supporter left?!

    by kazeh123 May 13, 2014 5:11 PM
    bryangoldsmith bryangoldsmith May 18, 2014 10:55 PM Flag

    Understand completely. It's not for everyone. It's been an ugly ride since the IPO. I think that's virtually 100% a result of the horrible currency/economic issues which, at some point, will correct. It could be 6 months or 6 years, but when it does correct I don't think there's any stock with better potential considering the risk/reward.

  • Reply to

    am i the only ARCO supporter left?!

    by kazeh123 May 13, 2014 5:11 PM
    bryangoldsmith bryangoldsmith May 14, 2014 12:34 AM Flag

    Not the only supporter. Accumulate here. Hold forever. This is not a $1.8B company. Not to mention the almost 3% yield. Am I dreaming? Will be a 20-bagger in the next 20 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ARCO
10.38+0.45(+4.53%)Jul 29 4:00 PMEDT

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