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Qihoo 360 Technology Co. Ltd. Message Board

bstee 380 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 5, 2015 4:57 PM Member since: May 2, 1998
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  • Reply to

    shorted 10K @ 104 just now

    by jonzumnkbagholderzkellyzzz Jun 5, 2015 3:07 PM
    bstee bstee Jun 5, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    Let me see if I understand correctly, you borrowed just over $1 million dollars worth of AMBA and bet against and somehow you shorted 10,000 shares at $104 even though only 6,400 shares actually crossed the wire at that price? That is an amazing trade. I am wondering what broker gave you those 10,000 shares (considering the beta I am assuming this has a healthy interest rate for that million dollar stake you just took. I have to also say, anyone who would place a million dollar short on a rising stock on a Friday afternoon...pretty ballsey...Not the trade...the idea that anyone would believe you.

  • Reply to

    I'm out, just missed a 10 bagger

    by bstee Jun 1, 2015 10:27 AM
    bstee bstee Jun 4, 2015 7:27 PM Flag

    Congrats on thee strong hand. Clearly I sold too soon. No regrets, it was a great ride. I actually got very lucky today as I had that money burning a hole and bought 10 call options in JUNO. I am not a biotech invester but the chart looked incredible and the news looked really solid. But I'll be darned if it didn't turn into a day trade. I was up 55% and sold out. Sure enough it kept going up. One day I will learn to buy it and put it away like you guys. Anyway, great trade all of you, congrats I am happy you are all still long and strong.

  • bstee bstee Jun 3, 2015 12:42 AM Flag

    Ha, good one. Since I was in for AMBA at $9.98 and you bought in at what was it $62? If I was concerned about boobs I could buy them with my returns. But thanks.

  • bstee bstee Jun 2, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    While you have done alright the "no matter what" comment means you don't know how stops work. Best of luck.

  • Reply to

    What are people's actions today

    by lapraf Jun 2, 2015 8:35 AM
    bstee bstee Jun 2, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    That is almost exactly how I played it. The premium on the 95's was pretty nice and I was considering selling at 92 meaning anything under 98 was a good trade. But because of the run up this stock suddenly represented over 1/4 of my entire holding (1500 shares only cost me $15,000 back in 2012). I got cold feet worried that the market could push it back 12 points if they don't beat enough. For me 12 points is $18,000 and that is not a risk I could take. I really hope I can get back in, this has juiced my holdings for the last year and selling out of the money calls has been good for an added $3,000 once every six weeks or so. Good luck to you. I hope it does not get called away, instead I am hoping it does drop to 88 AH and I can get back in. If not, it was a great ride.

  • Reply to

    I'm out, just missed a 10 bagger

    by bstee Jun 1, 2015 10:27 AM
    bstee bstee Jun 1, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    I am not forgetting. I am seriously considering biting the bullet and buying 10 calls so I can get back in if we see a huge jump but the calls are jumping with the price right now. Looking like a bad call on my part as I could have held on and sold the calls and collected almost $5,000 in premium even if the stock got called away. But....never regret selling for a profit. I am hoping at some point to get back in sub-90. If not, man it was a great ride!

  • Reply to

    I'm out, just missed a 10 bagger

    by bstee Jun 1, 2015 10:27 AM
    bstee bstee Jun 1, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    Great question Kevin. In this account, it went from a tiny portion to (you pretty much nailed it) very close to 25% of the entire portfolio. That means those up days were really good and showed awesome returns, but also part of the reason for the cold feet, a correction of sorts would erase some pretty good gains. In all honesty, not only have the gains in this stock been spectacular, the fact is that they have covered for less than stellar decisions like the fact that I have quite a bit in REITs and similar stocks that pay healthy dividends but are taking a beating due to the pending interest rate hike. The good thing is I now have a portfolio with a very healthy steady income, the bad is those prices may not have bottomed.

    I do have the entire $137k+ to invest right now as this is in a tax deferred account, so no 15% tax. It is starting to look like chip equipment is ripe for serious consolidation. Some of these companies are in strong cash positions making them prime candidates on either side of the equation.

  • I have been holding since $9.98 for 1500 shares. But just as things look brightest, I start getting nervous. Twice now I bought put protection and wasted the cash (not a lot considering the gains, but still total evaporated funds). This morning I really considered again just adding $88 put protection just in case the street gets crazy. One thing to think about it, unlike it appears many of us here, a lot of holders now are pure momentum players who are in in the mid-80's. They are looking for the quick gap up to triple digits (and no reason why they should not see it), but Wallstreet is fickle and momentum players more so. The slightest little footnote in the earnings report like a delayed order or a shift towards lower end chipsets (not expected) could cause an easy 20 pt. tumble. So I am out today, in at $9.98 and out at $91.41. For your sake I hope we hit triple digits and never look back...for mine, I hope for a nice little 5-7 point pull back before going there. Good luck all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought puts

    by bstee May 18, 2015 10:12 AM
    bstee bstee May 29, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Well I will admit I made a mistake, those puts are clearly worthless now. But I will say this, much happier to have ridden 1500 shares up from 78 to 90 than to have saved $3800 on worthless puts. Also glad I didn't sell calls on this one. I have been selling out of the money calls on nearly everything lately but wouldn't do it here as thought we might punch through. Now my last big hope is for the first big ten bagger in my nearly 20 years of investing. If we hit $100 I am there. It would make up for selling NFLX some 400 points ago.

  • Reply to

    Bought puts

    by bstee May 18, 2015 10:12 AM
    bstee bstee May 20, 2015 11:48 PM Flag

    Thanks. Clearly what I should have done was just not watch for the last week and I could have saved myself about $3,200 in what looks to worthless protection. However, I am glad I did that rather than sell a few days ago. I do believe this company is solid I just think the market is fickle. I am having a hard time understanding investor sentiment currently. - put it this way I sold Netflix about $400 ago so clearly my timing can be pretty bad.

  • Reply to

    Bought puts

    by bstee May 18, 2015 10:12 AM
    bstee bstee May 19, 2015 12:32 AM Flag

    I likely would if it was my cash account. Not sure whether it is better or worse but these shares are in my IRA. So I have a pretty long timeframe on them, that is why I have had them for something like two and half years already. Only regret is this is my regular IRA man I wish it was my Roth.

  • Reply to

    Bought puts

    by bstee May 18, 2015 10:12 AM
    bstee bstee May 18, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    That's a good point. In some of my other stocks I sell slightly out of the money calls to juice my returns and could do that to pay for puts here (the calls pay a really nice premium) but the odds lately are really good of getting called away so I won't risk it. If I had more to play with I would sell say the 90's (ten bucks out of the money) down the road as even those pay a premium but if GoPro and the Chinese now both start really gobbling up the higher end we could see it jump 90 and hit triple digits in a blink.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Ok don't jump on me and assume I am short, I am not. I have 1,500 shares (and for me that makes it a large holding) that I have held all the way since $9.98. I just don't want to sell and have seen too many great companies hit target and exceed yet get slammed in earnings so I bought 15 contracts to "lock in" - the after earnings premium on the puts is pretty cheap because the beta is not too bad on this, but considering the beta of the market I think the market is undervaluing (even a temporary) adjustment following even good earnings. Go ahead and tell me that is a horrible idea but for $2.15 to lock in incredible gains and not get stopped out it is worth it to me.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    If 38% of the US uses Netflix...

    by bstee Sep 19, 2013 2:37 PM
    bstee bstee Sep 19, 2013 4:26 PM Flag

    I appreciate the reply, but if they are counting on doubling their subscriber base the amount of time it would take to do so would take at least the length of their current contracts. Recall the renegotiations last time, I believe it was far more than a double and others like Starz simply were no longer interested. They may have a few interesting titles but what about those titles that are exclusive to HBO and Showtime (Game of Thrones, Boardwalk Empire, Nurse Jackie, Homeland). its not like they will always be able to get all programming from Netflix. What I still don't understand is the huge multiple applied to this stock on the potential of growth in the future and original programming like House of Cards, but HBO and cash flow from operations at Time Warner garners perhaps 1/15th the multiple. Netflix cannot seemingly grow large and profitable enough ever to justify the price.

  • And that results in a 370 PE suppose they penetrated close to 100% of those with TV and internet so basically they doubled revenue - it should mean the cost of content (other than original content) would also double. But suppose 100% of the homes in the US had Netflix doesn't this still equate to more than a 100 PE before content providers raise costs? What am I missing?

  • On April 23, 2013, the aggregate principal amount of Notes that were mandatorily converted was $200 million and such Notes converted into approximately 2.3 million shares of Netflix's common stock.

    So let's see...they added 2.3 million shares of stock ($609 million in market cap) in order to retire $200 million in bonds...wow, that is really a great move. Time for a buy back?

  • bstee bstee Sep 18, 2013 2:57 PM Flag

    If you have $1.5 million to spend on one stock and really believe the Netflix story, why didn't you buy 5,000 shares a year ago and save yourself a million bucks?

  • Does possible sale of Cosmopolitan for $3 billion help MGM - looks like it?

  • bstee bstee Mar 14, 2013 9:29 AM Flag

    The primary driver is clearly the technology which gives it stable pricing and increasing revenues regardless of fluctuations in commodity prices. Obviously higher prices in oil and gas will help, but the FlexRig is needed to access in areas where we could not reach or it was not economically viable to keep wells in years past. The primary driver will continue to simply be utilization rates and unlike other suppliers they have a unique product so they have pricing power.

  • Looking at the numbers I see a huge boost in impairment and depreciation and both can easily be used to hit numbers when needed. I am not suggesting that is the case as there is growth here, I have been long but have no position currently. I just see no actual gain in cash flows they are effectively the same as last quarter and margins are decreasing.

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