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Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. Message Board

btdarb 98 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Dec 19, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Short sighted

    by lionelman17 Sep 19, 2014 10:12 AM

    I do indeed own a few thousand shares of PWE, at an overall cost basis just above where the stock is currently trading. I've bought puts against my positions (I own the stock in more than one account) from time to time, the most profitable time being last November, right before they announced they weren't putting themselves up for sale.

    As for how I'm "playing this" now, I'm not in any hurry to add to my position. I've seen attempts by companies to "re-create" themselves before, and even the most successful attempts have involved a lot of pain up front. Just my opinion, but PWE is still a couple of years away from the "sustainable" business model they're trying to build. Most of the progress they've shown so far against their long range plan has been the low hanging fruit of reducing their costs. That's good to see, but there's no growth here yet, and from their numbers I don't see growth materializing for a while yet.

    In the meantime, I'll hold for a while longer and see how things progress. Next positive step to look for: the major asset sale they've promised by the end of this year....

  • Reply to

    Short sighted

    by lionelman17 Sep 19, 2014 10:12 AM

    Thanks for the information!

  • Reply to

    Short sighted

    by lionelman17 Sep 19, 2014 10:12 AM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 19, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    Wrong, genius; I'll be collecting it....

  • Reply to

    Short sighted

    by lionelman17 Sep 19, 2014 10:12 AM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 19, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    Greetings, lionelman17. Question for you: have you seen a transcript of yesterday's conference call out there yet? If you see one, please let me know. I'm curious to know if any of the so-called "analysts" that follow the company went ahead and asked about the "Goodwill" issue we were kicking around; I see PWE is still carrying it on its Balance Sheet at nearly $1.9 Billion.

    The numbers reported for Q2 were decent across the board, but from my perspective, those numbers are a little deceiving. Look at the reasons given for the increase in Funds Flow and Net Income: slightly higher commodity prices, a strengthening Canadian dollar, continued cost cutting. With more and more oil and natural gas supply coming online, I don't see commodity prices moving much higher, absent a geopolitical game changing event. With quantitative easing winding down, and interest rates eventually rising, I see the U.S. dollar strengthening vs. other currencies. As for cost cutting, that's great at the beginning, but how much further can their costs really be cut?

    Meanwhile, PWE's production continues to fall quarter-over quarter, or at best flat line, and they've already indicated that Q3 production will again decrease versus Q2's.

    The "bottom line" for me: there's still MUCH work to be done here, starting with a previously-promised major asset sale before the end of this year. Such a sale would be a positive step in the process of "actively re-creating our company".

    Let's see what Q3's results show, but I'm afraid the much-hoped-for quick return to pre-accounting-review PPS levels isn't going to be in the cards. In the meantime, hey, at least we get our Q3 dividend!

  • Reply to

    Took Profits at $7.80

    by twoblackcats88 Sep 18, 2014 10:44 AM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 18, 2014 7:47 PM Flag

    Greetings, lionelman17! Do yourself (and the rest of the Board) a favor and IMMEDIATELY slap too_bloated_with_caca on your "Ignore User" list. You'll be glad you did!

    I'm still sifting through all the PWE releases from today, and will likely add my two cents on today's announcements tomorrow. It's good to now have everything out in the open!

  • btdarb btdarb Sep 16, 2014 6:23 PM Flag

    We've actually created our own Message Board, and we're NOT giving you its URL...

  • Reply to

    It's pretty simple

    by value_detective Sep 12, 2014 12:32 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 12, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Sounds like a decent strategy to me. I think it's going to be a while longer than most of the usual posters here for PWE to get back to the $10 range, even if the accounting issues they're investigating turn out to be relatively minor. It only saw a $10 price tag a couple months back because of the initial uncertainty around the Russia/Ukraine situation, but energy prices have declined substantially since then. Look at the recent performance of some of its Canadian peers, who don't have questions about their financials; they're all down substantially over the last two months.

    You've got yourself covered either way, so good luck!

  • btdarb btdarb Sep 12, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    What he's "doing here" mostly is being "Ignored".....

  • Reply to

    Interesting take on Goodwill by this poster...

    by ador Sep 6, 2014 5:53 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 8, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    Yep....I just threw out my last "pocket protector" and green visor last week! Again, best of luck here; let's hope we get some good news over the next few weeks!!!

  • Reply to

    Interesting take on Goodwill by this poster...

    by ador Sep 6, 2014 5:53 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 8, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    I graduated from LaSalle University (then LaSalle College, so I'm showing my age a little) with a degree in Accounting, before formerly working (now retired) for the Vanguard Group as a Financials Analyst, but perhaps you're right....maybe I need a refresher course....sort of doubt it though....

    Best of Luck here; we'll all know soon enough.....

  • Reply to

    Interesting take on Goodwill by this poster...

    by ador Sep 6, 2014 5:53 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 8, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Come on, lionelman, I thought you were smarter than that. Of course they have a DIRECT bearing on each other, and here's how:

    " we know that the cash-flow data that supported that goodwill was overstated."

    Think about that: if the acquired assets, on which the amount of "goodwill" being carried is based, were not actually generating the amount of cash flow that was being reported because of inaccurate accounting, then by definition PWE has likely been misreporting (overstating) the "goodwill" those assets are supposedly creating. The bottom line: PWE's management had better be prepared to address ALL the issues raised as a result of their questionable accounting practices. Let's hope for their sake, and for ours as shareholders, they will do exactly that!

  • Reply to

    Interesting take on Goodwill by this poster...

    by ador Sep 6, 2014 5:53 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 8, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    And you've got to be amused by the fact that some moron gave a "thumbs down" to wanting to know what PWE is really worth....not the sharpest knife in the drawer, I'll bet.....

  • Reply to

    Interesting take on Goodwill by this poster...

    by ador Sep 6, 2014 5:53 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 8, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    Thank you. I just want to finally know the truth about what PWE as a company is really worth, as should everyone here.....

  • Reply to

    Goodwill

    by akhpatel Sep 8, 2014 10:44 AM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 8, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    Read their balance sheet and find out.....

  • Reply to

    Interesting take on Goodwill by this poster...

    by ador Sep 6, 2014 5:53 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 8, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    Greetings, lionelman17. I can see that, as usual, ador completely missed the point of the Milstead article, and I fear you may be missing its point as well. Here is THE most important issue being raised in the article:

    "Goodwill does not sit on a balance sheet indefinitely. If the cash-generating power of the acquired businesses cannot support the amount of goodwill, companies are supposed to determine that it’s “impaired,” write it down, and take that writedown as a charge against earnings. (Many dismiss these charges as “non-cash,” but they represent failed acquisitions paid for with the valuable currencies of cash or company stock.)"

    Contrary to ador's PWE cheerleader-like interpretation, Mr Milstead's article does NOT, in any way, show that "he just does not understand the issues". Based on his excellent description of what "goodwill" is and how it's created, I'd say he knows exactly what he's talking about, and his article is raising a VERY important question: is PWE carrying an "asset" on its balance sheet that has a highly-overinflated valuation?

    PWE must come out of this with NO additional questions about their numbers, so IF they need to take a hit to the value of their "goodwill", now's the time to do it....

    Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    Sorry, here's the rest and most important piece.

    by ador Sep 6, 2014 12:16 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 6, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    Greetings, ador. The information you posted is good, but doesn't really address the question of what the "goodwill" PWE is carrying on its Balance Sheet is actually worth. That's the REAL question brought up in the Globe and Mail article a few days ago. I don't particularly care whether or not they are "required" to disclose its value only under certain circumstances. If they are carrying an "asset" with an overstated value, well, that's something I certainly do care about. The "management" of this company needs to come COMPLETELY clean when they announce the results of their review, so as not to leave any doubt in anyone's mind that ALL the numbers they're reporting can be trusted. If nothing else, PWE owes its investors at least that much....

  • Reply to

    good article in Globe and Mail about.,....

    by mdb4403 Sep 3, 2014 9:55 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 4, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Greetings, ed. Agreed, their physical assets do have value attached to them, but you've got to admit it's a little hard to believe that after all these years there's that much value left in the assets they acquired as part of their Canetic Energy Trust purchase. I just want them to come clean on ALL their numbers when they announce the results of their review, so we're not left with any more questions about what's worth what......

  • Reply to

    good article in Globe and Mail about.,....

    by mdb4403 Sep 3, 2014 9:55 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 4, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    OK, you raise some fair points. From an operational and debt standpoint, PWE has made some improvements (remember that Q1 production actually DECREASED on a quarter-over-quarter basis, however) recently. But the article raises what I think is a very legitimate question: IF that "goodwill" figure is highly overstated, then PWE's book value IS overstated. (Now you know why I was so disappointed that they didn't put up the "For Sale" sign) We'll know soon enough.

    I don't always agree with what our friend mdb4403 has to say, but he did the Board a favor by bringing the article to our attention, so thanks to him. I value other opinions, as opposed to just taking on faith what the company has to say, especially now.....

  • Reply to

    good article in Globe and Mail about.,....

    by mdb4403 Sep 3, 2014 9:55 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 4, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    Greetings, gsi. So, please give us your opinion as to "what PWE is really worth". The article's author draws one conclusion, and because you disagree you label it "wildass speculation". Mr. Milstead could label your claim "that PWE assets are probably worth in far excess to its book value" as pure speculation on your part as well. The big problem this accounting mess has brought into the light of day is that NOBODY knows "what PWE is really worth" right now, so his "idle speculation" is every bit as valid as yours until we get concrete numbers to the contrary.....

  • Reply to

    good article in Globe and Mail about.,....

    by mdb4403 Sep 3, 2014 9:55 PM
    btdarb btdarb Sep 4, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    It is indeed an interesting article, and it gives an outstanding explanation of the concept of "goodwill". I'd strongly suggest all the regular posters here, both the believers and non-believers in the PWE story, give it a look. It also suggests to me a possible reason why according to the CEO they "considered a sale" last November, but decided against it: perhaps any potential acquirers out there aren't able to get an accurate read on how much PWE is actually worth? Food for thought.....

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