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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

bubblerforever 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 16, 2014 4:22 AM Member since: Nov 12, 2002
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  • Reply to

    To buy or not to buy.

    by bigbear.2010 Jun 25, 2014 12:10 PM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Jun 25, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    I almost never do this, but today seemed appropriate due to the price action in last two days. Doubled my position today at $14.76. Probably wrong but I am willing to risk it.

  • Reply to

    Well, I'll admit ...

    by ray858945 Jul 8, 2014 12:04 PM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Jul 9, 2014 7:46 AM Flag

    I'd say the drop in PSEC yesterday was in response to the 10 year treasury drop in yield. PSEC has stated in their presentations that if interest rates go up, they make more money. 10 year Treasuriies are somewhat range bound now. Yesterday drop in PSEC was just a market reaction. Earnings will be key to PPS.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Today's Fed notes good news for MREITs

    by jackhiller Jul 9, 2014 2:52 PM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Jul 9, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    A year ago, who was predicting that the 10 year T rate would gradually decline into 2014? Who would have predicted the PIGS's sovereign 10 year debt would drop at an even more dramatic fashion? Spanish 10 year yield is almost the same as US Ten Year yield currently.. Now should anyone be confident that US Ten Year treasuries interest rates will gradually go up next year? Remember when Japan first hit 1% rates on their ten year note more than 10 years ago? Where are they now? US and other sovereign debt rates impact each other as money gets moved around the world looking for the be return. When rates continue to decline, it costs money to hedge and that money is lost. I think there is a strong possibility we will hit 2% ten year rate. So what would that mean to Mreits? They need to be prepared for both scenerios.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Today's Fed notes good news for MREITs

    by jackhiller Jul 9, 2014 2:52 PM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Jul 9, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    Then earnings should be pretty good this quarter, based on that., enough to cover the dividend?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bubblerforever bubblerforever Jul 13, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    June 30th 15 and 30 year MBS values were almost identical to May 31st values. So my thinking is 2nd quarter BV will be the same $15.44 unless the Company messed up with hedges or MBS sales etc.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Only need 7 more days like today

    by bigbear.2010 Jul 14, 2014 4:35 PM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Jul 14, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    It must have been Cramer's "The Street" recommendation today recommending you sell WMC that did it :-)
    geesh, what losers read that stuff.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bubblerforever bubblerforever Jul 23, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    Just watch book values per share. These will reflect what's going on regarding capital losses or gains for the average investor.
    Book values of holdings increase when the assets (which are generally a combination of mortgages held and hedges) are valued higher at the end of a quarter.
    The Mreit company could incur an actual loss when they purchase an asset and sell it at a lower price, or when a mortgage is paid off early by the mortgagee and the amount received is less than what that asset was on the book for. Or they could incur a loss when a hedge expires that is worthless or less than it is on the books for. Or they could incur an unrealized loss of mortgages or hedges. Either way, these will be reflected in book value per share (this is assuming shares outstanding have not increased during the quarter) Fixed rate Mortgages can lose value if interest rates climb. CYS primarily holds fixed rate mortgages. Adjustable rate mortgages can increase in value if interest rates climb over the length of time the company holds it. HTS holds primarily adjustable rate mortgages.
    However, both fixed rate and adjustable Mreits can do very well during long periods of low volitility in interest rates. Unexpected sharp increases or decreases in interest rates and MBS prices cause giant problems for both types of Mreits usually resulting in a loss of book values.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    2nd Quarter Results?

    by bigbear.2010 Aug 3, 2014 4:20 PM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Aug 4, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    It was an embarrassingly bad conference call. I hope they practice before they do this one.

  • bubblerforever bubblerforever Aug 5, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    NYMT is my largest stock holding. I own 6 other Mreits. I think it will be more expensive tommorrow but still worth purchasing if you don't already have some..
    I like the earnings report and expect the dividend to be increased somewhat when it is announced later.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bubblerforever by bubblerforever Aug 12, 2014 7:21 AM Flag

    Boring earnings but they "cover the dividend and then some". 13% yield, okay. Book value up 3%, okay, prepayments not too bad 4%, primarily Agency MBS safe but boring, interest rate spread basically the same, so just stick with the plan and troddingly earn the dividends and a year end bonus hopefully. It's a hold for me.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Say goodbye

    by petarbuku Aug 18, 2014 2:39 PM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Aug 19, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    It's a shelf registration. This is done to allow companies to do an offering whenever they like. If they do an offering, it will still need to be announced and that can be done anytime. So this stock sells for more than book value. An offering at a price above book value will be accretive which is nice. NYMT knows this and may do it. Book value is $6.83 as of June 30th. Today's price is more than a dollar above that. I am ready to buy more if they actually announce an SPO. Just makes sense.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Consider that the earnings just reported

    by jackhilr Aug 29, 2014 2:35 PM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Sep 1, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    I think US mortgage rates have another leg down to go in 3rd quarter and will result in pushing up WMC BV as MBS/CMBS values increase. Global demand for safe and sovereign yield is accellerating wouldn't you say?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bubblerforever by bubblerforever Sep 2, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    It's been a while but I just bought 500 more today. Now my average weighted cost is $15.45 on my entire 5,000+ shares. I'm still holding some shares purchased last year. I do not see the downside in wmc dividends for next two quarters. I guess I have to rate it a buy, huh?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bubblerforever by bubblerforever Sep 5, 2014 7:56 AM Flag

    Looking at Nasdaq website, why did 78,000 shares of WMC trade at $15.11 in after hours trading 5:10PM on 9/4? That's 6 cents above closing price. Just curious. It looks like unusually high volume among Mriets.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bubblerforever bubblerforever Sep 6, 2014 8:09 AM Flag

    REIT sector is prone to major swings in valuation but on a different cycle than most equites. I'd be interested in your thoughts regarding the even more unstable and highly levered mortgage reit sector as compared to the equity reits. Keep in mind the global economy perspective versus the US centered perspective. The investments you make can be placed in the ecomonies and sectors that will benefit most from changing directions/trends.

  • Reply to

    #$%$

    by dwoodsfl Sep 13, 2014 6:47 PM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Sep 15, 2014 7:44 AM Flag

    I hate to contradict your harping fear but it was clearly stated by the fed chair Bernaki that the excess trillions would be held until it matures. Currently the Fed is replacing maturing debt with similar debt. There is an incredible amount of income being "booked" by those debt instruments held by the Treasury in the meantime.
    This is one issue not to worry about.

  • Reply to

    Undeniable Positives To Impact Economy

    by casadipace777 Sep 14, 2014 1:49 AM
    bubblerforever bubblerforever Sep 15, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    I am thoroughly enjoying the back and forth commentary. Thank you. I find myself more often than not agreeing with the analysis by casadipace77. However jackhilr is definitely on top of the latest news and that is appreciated as well. Growth is inevitable as long as their is population growth. US population will continue to grow for the foreseeable decades ahead. It may only be 1 or 2%, but the US will attract more immigration looking for opportunity to replace our future dying baby boomers. Debt burdens on the US government is at a historical low level and so are the PIGS that we worried about last year. Treasuries around the world have "remortgaged" their debt at much lower interest levels. Question is why bullish on WMC? Rather than an other Mreit? What are the inherent advantages to WMC?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • bubblerforever bubblerforever Sep 16, 2014 4:22 AM Flag

    "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" by Piketty chapter 2 - Growth: and Output: Illusions and Realities is a good read.

    Sentiment: Buy

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