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Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

bucketlist88 314 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 4, 2013 7:21 AM Member since: Apr 23, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Subway is pushing their $4 cheese pizza....

    by denn56k Sep 30, 2013 4:18 PM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Oct 4, 2013 7:21 AM Flag


    You stated you sell t-shirts to bikers. So does Walmart, does their quality hurt your business? We want subway selling pizza, because it will remind the customers they could have had a good quality one, ours. You get what you pay for, just like a Walmart biker t-shirt. You only buy one. Just like you will only buy one pie from subway.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    PZZI Short Slaughter 2013 is Here

    by oookkkkaaaayyyyy Sep 27, 2013 9:53 AM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Sep 27, 2013 9:59 AM Flag

    den56k losing his t-shirt business today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by bucketlist88 Sep 25, 2013 6:09 PM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Sep 25, 2013 6:56 PM Flag

    Good point on 14 weeks. My best guess this added about $128K to the numbers on the revenues. remember they also have expenses of 14 weeks to measure against.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by bucketlist88 Sep 25, 2013 6:09 PM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Sep 25, 2013 6:51 PM Flag

    You sell T-shirts 4 for $20. Your opinion is worthless denn56k. This was a very good quarter and they grew sales by $1.3M. Looks like you need to spin it. You did post that a store would close and move, so I will give you that point. I also notice that they didn't include any franchise fees in the earnings, smart, hold them to where next quarter looks great. I will call the company to explain why G&A rose. The big ticket Cost of goods was in line with historical numbers of 84% compared to 86.5% last quarter. They have turned a corner and any analyst would look past the impairment charge. One time events are ignored. Given that they would have had a $60K profit. Much better than the last quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Sep 25, 2013 6:19 PM Flag


    I understand your narrow thinking on pumping this daily. We are confident that we don't need to do that. This is not like selling T-shirts and having to post signs 4 for $20.

    When you have a winner, you let it do it's thing and just have to report anything new. The share price will go up and down, till one day it just goes UP. I live 15 minutes from the Florida P5, will give updates as I see progress. My wife teaches about a half mile away and I can assure you this location is a winner. They have several hotels just small walk away to drive late sales. Port Orange is a GREAT location. Exactly what I hoped for. Great exposure and with so many schools in the area, this will be a perfect fit, for the parent on the run. Next quarter I expect over $12M in sales and a profit of $500K. They are well on their way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bucketlist88 by bucketlist88 Sep 25, 2013 6:09 PM Flag

    They had a loss of 700K, but that was do to a one time impairment charge. They would have had a profit this quarter without this charge. Sales broke above $11M and cost associated with this were right inline with historical averages of 84%. The G&A increased to $1.1m compared to last quarter of $840K. Increase of $260K. Could this be the cost of opening three P5's? Best part sales increased to $11M compared to last quarters $9.7M. Looks like a great quarter and shows signs that they have and will increase sales.

    News that Florida is underway, is the best news today. Bad debts expenses increase some, don't like that. Anyone see something I missed, please post.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • bucketlist88 by bucketlist88 Aug 30, 2013 8:27 AM Flag

    States that ASTX wanted or needed a pop to the stock. I believe with the $14M payment fast approaching and the dacogen generic impact, Dr. Manuso was desperate to not see this fall back to the $3's. The hype here has been more than over the top. Why so much hype?

    Could we see another $300M in market cap vanish into thin air. Best part, why no data on survival? Maybe Dr. M wants to go, what better way then exaggerate and get your walking papers with a nice severance package, while they still have $135M. He missed completely on CLIMB technology and in two plus years of taking over ASTEX, they haven't found one new single fragment. Not one compound in two+ years.

    This stinks worse than pumpettees at 3am flooding message boards the stock was headed to $15. Last question, trial of sgi-110 has been going on some two years, they can only enroll 17 pts up to now for data? The forth quarter is going to look bad, but first quarter numbers are going to be real shocker when they lose more than $30M.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Little ditti.....

    by denn56k Aug 29, 2013 3:40 PM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Aug 29, 2013 3:48 PM Flag

    So when that manager threw you out of the SLC P5 you did land on your head.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by batzem Aug 28, 2013 2:16 PM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Aug 29, 2013 8:49 AM Flag

    Not my ID. I suspect that you posted under Roosevelt ID and then, make this claim in hopes I will not remind newbies of the serious losses that are projected over the next three years.

    We still have to see how investors hang on when they see $15M per quarter loses and higher. Yesterday was full of hype and news was only equal to what is already being shown in other drugs. If someone wants to pay over $7 for this stock, they will soon find themselves regretting it.

    Answer this one simple question. Why no data on MDS? That's where the $1B market is. You still have another three years of waiting. BTW add that to your claim of being here since 1999. Are you even at breakeven yet?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • bucketlist88 by bucketlist88 Aug 28, 2013 10:59 AM Flag

    Will you be smart enough to take profits this time. The last time it traded at $6.75 range they watched $300M in market cap disappear.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    26% showed similar results

    by bucketlist88 Aug 28, 2013 10:00 AM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Aug 28, 2013 10:17 AM Flag

    I'd be careful. After rereading the PR they did show CR in the 17 pt cohort. But this still only matches what has already been show in other drug studies. Best time to short this is when the numbers start adding up. Dacogen their only source of revenue just went generic. Cutting off more than 50% of revenues. They have a payment of $14M to the former owners of astex in January.

    The day traders should exit by 3PM. Very few investor understand this is still 3-4 years down the road. This will trade back down, once they see burn of $15M-$17M per quarter.

    You have to laugh at that they couldn't get near the $6.90 range and most of the pumpettees were thing it was headed to $9 back then. News out, a non event will be the final true picture.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • bucketlist88 by bucketlist88 Aug 28, 2013 10:04 AM Flag

    Crafty how this company made it sound like they attained CR, but in reality they only call it response in this PR. Big difference. They measured for CR, but could not make the actual claim.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • bucketlist88 by bucketlist88 Aug 28, 2013 10:00 AM Flag

    In fact they called it CRc study and with sgi-110 they simply call it response. Carefully they only say they measured for CR. They do not state that they actually seen a CR do they? Is ASTEX pulling the wool over everyone's eyes. Would not be the first time that this CEO has made statements that were contradiction in terms.

    Before everyone gets too excited here look at 26% claim and CR rates. Plus they are many years out front of sgi-110. Plus this therapy will be generic relatively soon. Here is the article.

    According to the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, approximately 12,300 adults in the United States will be diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in 2010. Of patients who are fit enough to receive standard induction therapy, accumulated data demonstrate that about 60—80% of younger adults and 40—50% of older adults achieve a complete remission, leaving a substantial population of surviving patients who are refractory to initial induction therapy. Patients whose disease does not respond to the first cycle of induction chemotherapy are sometimes placed in the refractory category. However a retrospective analysis of six Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) studies that included both younger and older adults demonstrated that 26% of patients achieving complete remission (CR) following anthracycline and cytarabine-based induction therapy required a second cycle of identical induction therapy to do so [Rowe et al. 2010]. For our purposes, we will consider refractory disease to be disease that did not respond to up to two cycles of first-line induction therapy.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • bucketlist88 by bucketlist88 Aug 28, 2013 8:33 AM Flag

    We all knew already that aml got some benefit. Still not the same market as MDS and aml much shorter benefit window. Maybe they can find someone to partner this with. Meaning they only get 20% of a small population that benefits.

    You never see any real results in MDS? Still will be three years at best before approval. Let's see how this plays out all day.

  • Reply to

    Bucket, if SGI-110 is good then $7 is possible.

    by weightbayou Aug 27, 2013 11:38 AM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Aug 27, 2013 1:08 PM Flag

    Interesting that ECCO is what you are posting about. However they are not on the exhibitor list: Maybe just an over site. They also missed ASCO after telling investors they would be presenting. Well if earnings are really bad then $2 is possible. I didn't alter or post any half truths on this vendor list.

    AAAS/Science 3807
    Agendia 1810
    Altos Solutions, Inc. 3555
    American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) 3702
    American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) 3475
    Amgen 2300
    Apocell 2612
    ARIAD Pharmaceuticals 4302
    Association of European Cancer Leagues (ECL) 4200
    Astellas Pharma Europe Ltd. 3650
    AstraZeneca 4400
    Azanta 1775
    Bavarian Nordic Immuno Therapeutics 2450
    Baxter 1205

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Normally I ignore the really stupid posters. But when pumpettees make huge claims that they can now buy a new car and go on vacations, you just have to laugh. They always seem to leave uncle Sam out of the mix. I also notice a term used on this board. Half Truths, I search this term on other boards and it seems to resonate with this board. Since 2002. Now, is half truths the part that pumpettees want to ignore or the part that they accept as valid?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Next three years earnings

    by bucketlist88 Aug 26, 2013 9:49 AM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Aug 26, 2013 4:17 PM Flag


    You have it all figured out in your head. See you can claim $9 coming and that's truthful statements. I break down the current financial situation and point out what the picture may look like and that's half truths. If generic takes a 70% bite out of USA sales, then I was very generous with my post on revenues. I gave you 50% of the current yearly sales. Recall that you are losing the revenues that pay 30%,27.5% and most likely the 25%. This is a big difference.

    The last statement is really questionable. You won't even be in ph3 for another 9 months. Complete reversal is your opinion. You will be lucky if any decision comes before 2Q17. If they go after MDS or AML expect 2018. I left expenses pretty much untouched, but that was the only untruth, I didn't factor in that expenses could run 50% higher than they are currently. Dr. M may have to scrap the options or non cash charges, so he can show the bleeding isn't as bad as it could be.

    It seems that I go very conservative on the numbers, so not to hype up the pumpettees and they still find fault. Well I hope you get lucky and unload some of the drain. So far, I don't know any company who welcome a second line drug. Maybe Dr. Reddy' will take it off your hands. But when the numbers start rolling in, pumpettees will blame everyone but themselves. Do your own DD, pumpettees pull events out of their hat as if they already happen.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Next three years earnings

    by bucketlist88 Aug 26, 2013 9:49 AM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Aug 26, 2013 11:18 AM Flag

    Well batzem, raising $84M will only pay for the bills they owe, what about going forward. Your CEO enjoys the $2.5M he gets paid, they like to fork out $4M in options every so often. Simple math is all you can do, it's the complexities that get you. Thanks Jeffro for that lesson in deciphering.

    The new pumpettee slogan is" how can we believe anything you say". I notice this same theme in every thread.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • bucketlist88 by bucketlist88 Aug 26, 2013 9:49 AM Flag

    Thought I would take a look at what the next Three years looks like:

    Revenues: Losing only 50% of Dacogen royalties, very conservative estimate:

    $105M Revenues
    $20M Milestone Maybe they get lucky

    $125M Total revenues

    Expenses (Currently $100M a year, bump it up for ph3 modest 10%)

    $14M payment to former astex insiders


    Losses of $219M (Cash on hand only $135M) How do they make up $84M? Diluted shareholders 50M shares? If expenses dramatically go up, theses losses will be wishful thinking. But don't you fret, secondline on the way in 4 years. That's if they can get past the low response rates and competitors making moves to the hoop. Do your own DD.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Bucket should have bought above the 50 MA like me!

    by ejohns21 Aug 23, 2013 6:13 PM
    bucketlist88 bucketlist88 Aug 26, 2013 9:31 AM Flag

    I believe over confidence cost investors a healthy trading opportunity a few times here. Granted I missed most of this rebound. But pumpettees seem to always get their facts wrong. I 'm already in the bank with all this run, the pumpettees are the ones that need another $1 appreciation to catch up to me. This doesn't take into account that I made some money on the way down and some on the way up.

    We seen how fast $300M in valuation can disappear and we've seen $200M come back. The tug of war is not over to EJ goes on a diet. I love how pumpettees have to inject material items into their posts, I can buy a car, go on vacations. Anyone that sold at $6.75 can do all those things also. Maybe pumpettees need a proof reader before they hit to "Post".

    Sentiment: Sell

8.495Oct 10 4:00 PMEDT

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