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Multiband Corporation Message Board

buckeye8810 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 4:09 PM Member since: Aug 29, 2011
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  • buckeye8810 by buckeye8810 Sep 17, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    $255m processed. Guiding for record revenue in Q3 and for profits to be the highest of the year so far. All in all a nice setup for their seasonally strongest Q4. Picked up another 100k today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Steel Partners Holdings L.P. has been accumulating

    by cherk_on Sep 11, 2014 5:47 PM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Sep 16, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    Hard to say. Steel Partners is a $4b hedge fund so I'm kind of surprised they would even be buying a stock like this...not really sure what their track record is on activism or acquisitions. They probably just think it's undervalued.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • buckeye8810 by buckeye8810 Sep 11, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    Huge defense company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Not very good,

    by cohsgrad Sep 2, 2014 4:34 PM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Sep 3, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    On the cc, management said they expected sequential revenue growth every quarter in 2015. So say $87m in Q1, it's pretty likely they'll be doing mid to high 90's by Q4. Not to mention there are 2 very large US projects they're currently bidding and they haven't forecasted any revenue from those. Additionally, Africa looks like it could start growing considerably again and it looks like they're only conservatively estimating that increase. This company just needs $90m in revenue to breakeven with their historical margins. So I could definitely see them being profitable by the end of fiscal 2015. And when Africa finally does turn (and I think you're already starting to see it) it will be growing faster than anywhere else in the world, and Aviat is in the front seat. So the upgrade makes sense here based on value alone. CRNT is already trading for 5x the enterprise value of this.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • buckeye8810 by buckeye8810 Sep 2, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    Numbers were pretty uninspiring, but the cc was super bullish. Couple key points they made:
    -Backlog is the strongest it has been in a long time
    -Expecting sequential revenue growth every quarter in fiscal 2015
    -Expecting margin improvements starting in Q1
    -Cash break even in 1st half of year, then cash generation in second half
    -Some curious comments by Chuck on "consolidation" in the industry. Could mean the company is for sale or they're looking to merge.
    -One of the analysts on the call said MTN (AVNW's largest customer in Africa) is going to be increasing cap-ex by 50% in the second half of the year.

    Could be a good buying opportunity tomorrow if this sells off. Sounds like the trough in the cycle has bottomed and is getting ready to turn back up

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Temporary new floor price?

    by brodheadite Aug 29, 2014 12:23 PM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 31, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    I suppose there is always the possibility they lose a customer and revenue contracts- that's a possibility with any business. Based on current trends and management comments, I don't think there is any reason to bet on revenue contraction anytime soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Temporary new floor price?

    by brodheadite Aug 29, 2014 12:23 PM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 30, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    It's obvious the revenue increase is coming from new customers and "existing customers processing higher volumes." Hard to say why it happened now and not a few years ago. Obviously, management thinks the trend is going to continue and their cash balance continues to grow which means they are picking up even more clients. Naturally, the company is not going to grow at 100%+ every year, but they don't need to. My models have 2014 revenue in the $13m range, and processors tend to sell for about 4x revenue with just low double digit growth. You can do the math.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is just silly

    by liarspoker500 Aug 29, 2014 4:35 PM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 29, 2014 8:21 PM Flag

    The share price always adjusts down by the price of the dividend. Doesn't matter if it's a quarterly dividend paid by Johnson&Johnson or a one-time special dividend. The reason the share price went up in this case is because it appears management is finally "getting it." The stock is still trading below cash (around $60m) and has a profitable core business, and would be exponentially more profitable if they would shut down manufacturing and become strictly an IP licensing company. By my estimates, this company could earn $0.19 a share with their current licensing arrangements. Put that at a 20 p/e and you're looking at a $3.80 share price. Throw in cash and you're in the $6 range. So yeah, the share price will be reduced by $0.70 when it goes ex-div, but there was no explainable reason for this stock to be trading south of $2 in the first place.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Temporary new floor price?

    by brodheadite Aug 29, 2014 12:23 PM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 29, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    Actually, on second look he only has about 40,000 more shares than Long.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Temporary new floor price?

    by brodheadite Aug 29, 2014 12:23 PM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 29, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    I already have a big positive here, but I'll be looking to add anytime there is a sizable ask below $0.13. I was able to take out the majority of the 1m share block at $0.12 by myself, and that was before they reported earnings that surpassed my expectations. I still maintain this stock would be at least 2x higher if not for Hoch's 10b plan. I know he's only selling a small percentage of his holdings, but I think it's killing investor confidence. Will be interesting to see if his program allows him to go below Long in terms of ownership. Right now he only has about 100,000 more shares than Long.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hold until earnings or quit before Friday?

    by gigastar74 Aug 26, 2014 11:57 AM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 26, 2014 9:41 PM Flag

    I'm going to hold. When they put out the PR of Chuck being appointed executive chairman, he was quoted as saying, "Recent improvement in Aviat's business has created broader opportunities in our previously announced evaluation of our strategic direction. Having worked more closely with the management team over the past few months, I am encouraged by the Company's near term business outlook and product roadmap. I look forward to working with Mike and his team to leverage our recent progress."

    That to me sounds like guidance is going to be good. And considering how cheap this stock currently is, it's not going to take a lot of good news to move sharply higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Taxable

    by allrighthiyall Aug 26, 2014 3:35 PM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 26, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    I'd guess the majority of it will be a "return of capital" in which there is no tax due, but it reduces your costs basis by the amount of the distribution.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yes, the company is profitable as it sits, but the true value here lies in their licensing agreements that generate over $5m a year. Realistically, all this company needs is a CEO and a lawyer. Take the $5m a year at 95% margins and call it a day. Even it was still public at that point, it would be generating $0.19 a share in earnings with $60m net cash in the bank. The way it currently operates by trying to manufacture some of their own products- is losing money. Why they continue to try to manufacture on their own is beyond me, but if a potential buyer could strike a deal with Ho and get around his controlling interest; there is some serious money to be made here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Okay, real question

    by rkramden1960 Aug 24, 2014 9:23 AM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 24, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    I stand corrected. In the case of dividends over 25% of the market value, there is a different set of rules. Pretty obscure since dividends like this don't happen too often. The ex-date is the first business day following the payable date

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Okay, real question

    by rkramden1960 Aug 24, 2014 9:23 AM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 24, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    You have to be a "shareholder of record" on Sept 12th. That means Sept 9th is the last day to buy if you want the dividend because it takes trades 3 days to settle. The stock will go ex-dividend on September 10th and be reduced by $0.70

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • buckeye8810 by buckeye8810 Aug 21, 2014 11:37 PM Flag

    Seems to me like they should be making a lot more money on the money they're holding for their customers. Last quarter they only reported $22k in interest income, yet the cash balances should have been between $55-60m those months. Even if you're only getting 1% a year that should still equate to around $45,000 a month in interest (0.01/12)x55m. I would think they could at least invest that money in some risk-free investments like short term notes or commercial paper and really get some nice returns. Even if it's just in a plain savings account it should be making more money than it currently is.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earnings Jitters

    by toad_koppel Aug 20, 2014 1:15 PM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 21, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    I agree it's strange that cash increased too because on the last call they said they expected to use another $4-5m on the restructuring. They were appealing that $12m tax ruling they had to pay a while ago so I wonder if they got some money back from that. Good news is the restructuring should be finished by now and their new breakeven level going forward should be about $90m in revenue. Additionally, I think the near term outlook is improving based on some of the things management has said recently. Last quarter they were guiding for cash flow positive by the first two quarters of 2015 (already started July 1st).

    My guy feeling is that investments in Africa are going to get hot like China, Brazil, India, etc were a few years ago. When that happens, investors are going to flood into AVNW because it offers the most exposure to that region. And the way this stock is currently priced, it doesn't need to do anything fancy. If they can just turn a small profit it will double quickly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Will ASTC get the quorem of votes needed

    by pa1702 Aug 19, 2014 10:20 AM
    buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 20, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    mi2, you don't have any room to accuse anyone of reporting falsifications. Who knows how much money you cost investors here by saying ASTC's "sheds" were worthless. You were bashing this stock at $0.60. Just an epically bad call. Of course, I really can't get mad at you since I still haven't finished counting the money this stock made me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 20, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Not having enough votes would constitute "material" news and they would halt the stock and disseminate a PR ...especially since there would be people who had early access to the info since the meeting was open to the public.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • buckeye8810 buckeye8810 Aug 20, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    Can almost guarantee you it passed. If it didn't, stock would have been halted by now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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