The best way to see a RETEST (and a picture is worth a 1,000 words) is to pull up a Daily Chart for SRPT. Use "CANDLESTICKS" for the price display mode. Then draw a horizontal line at the $15 price point.
You will SEE (and understand) exactly how a RETEST works.
You will see when SRPT "TESTED" the $15PTR (from above it) between Oct 27th of 2014 through Dec 12th 2014. It "HIT" the PTR LINE at $15 at least 4 times in that period but BOUNCED UP OFF IT every time, untill it finally BROKE UNDER the $15PTR LINE on Dec 11th. It came back up to RETEST the $15 for about 7 trading days from Dec 10th to Jan 9th, when it finally GAVE UP, and began what I think will culminate binn a TEST of the $10PTR LINE.
If that $10PTR "HOLDS", then SRPT will cycle back up to RETEST the $15PTR.
All of technical analysis is VISUAL, so my words are going to fail to really teach you much without you LOOKING at the actual price movements (with an OVERLAY of the technicals like PTR LINES to help).
As I told you previously, SRPT was retesting the low of $12.12 from 2013.
MONTHLY CHART: On the monthly, SRPT had 97 million shares volume at that $12.12 low in 2013. On the retest we just finished, we had only about 18 million shares. That tells us "WE ARE CLOSE TO A BOTTOM"; but...we closed UNDER the previous $12.12 low at $12. That tells us we "CAN GO A BIT LOWER HERE". (If we had closed above $12.12; SRPT would've been a STRONG BUY!)
WEEKLY CHART: The weekly volume back in 2013 at that $12.12 low was 64 million, so we also went below $12.12 on LIGHTER WEEKLY VOLUME. (We are OVERSOLD therefore but again since we closed below $12.12, we can go LOWER STILL.)
DAILY: The volume of Nov 13 2013 was 10.3 million, and we went under that on January 12th when we put in a low of $11.33 on 3.5 million. That gives us the same signal about "BEING CLOSE TO A BOTTOM", but once again the CLOSE at $12 signals we "CAN GO LOWER FIRST BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT"
RIGHT NOW we are sitting right on top of an "OPEN GAP" ($10.78-$11.68) that goes back to 8/27/12. Chances are very high we will CLOSE THAT GAP. Additionally, we are cycling within the $10PTR to $15PTR trading range. We broke below the $15PTR back on Dec 11th, and FAILED the 7-day retest of that $15PTR on
Jan 9th. When you fail a retest like that, you almost ALWAYS CYCLE DOWN TO TEST THE NEXT LOWER PTR (or $10 in our case)
Here is a PLAN you might consider...Watch for SRPT to break UNDER the $11.33 low of Jan 12th on MUCH LESS THAN 3.5 MILLION SHARES! Then buy it at the test of the $10PTR with a stop underneath at $9.
Best of luck...Bud
LOBSTAH! You must be red as a LOBSTAH about now...huh?
Glad you stayed in SRPT and PROVED that all the TA warnings on SRPT were NOT FOR YOU!
YOU were WAY TOO SMART!
(POORER...but MUCH SMARTER! )
-5 points HOMER. for NOT PAYING ATTENTION IN CLASS. I warned of a REPEAT of the 2011 CORRECTION that I projected would OCCUR on or about OCTOBER OF 2014. If you spent more time UNDERSTANDING and less time ATTACKING you would KNOW what I actually said!
To FINISH UP: Can the S&P run to 2350 BEFORE resting the 1550 BREAKOUT AREA? YES...just as the NASDAQ did when it broke out in 1999. BUT...if it does...it will ONLY POSTPONE THAT RETEST! (I think that scenario is less likely BECAUSE of the CHANNEL L:INES on the S&P. We are VERY OVERBOUGHT right now versus the long term CHANNEL LINES, and historically THEY OVERRIDE EVERYTHING ELSE!
Great question Mitch.
Here is how TRADING RANGES really work.
Much like the PTRs that I talk about all the time, when any stock or market index establishes a TRADING RANGE. it is both PERMANENT and CONSISTENT. I mean by that that you can take that specific trading range and PROJECT IT vertically (both up[ and down), and it will be a MAJOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE mechanism.
If you attempt to BREAK OUT higher over a trading range, you TYPICALLY HAVE TO RETEST THE BREAKOUT first before confirming the breakout. If the RETEST holds, then you can count on a move equal to at least the trading range itself. If you FAIL on a breakout retest, you will cycle ALL THE WAY TO THE LOWER EDGE OF THAT RANGE!
If you "SKIP" a retest, then you are "DOOMED" to come back and do that retest LATER ON!
CASE IN POINT: The NASDAQ MONTHLY CHART shows a 1400 point trading range. The NASDAQ broke out above 2800 back in Oct '99 but "SKIPPED" the retest. As a result, it came all the way back to do that retest LATER ( Nov 2000). It failed to HOLD on the retest of 2800, and sank ALL THE WAY TO 1400.
Short term: SRPT is currently trading between the $10 and $15 Primary Trading Range Levels (or PTRs for short) Think of PTRs like you would "floors on a building" SRPT has been busting through these PTR Levels (which on SRPT's Daily Chart) are every $5) ever since April of 2014. Just draw horizontal lines on a daily SRPT chart at $40, $35, $30, $25, $20, 15, and $10 and you will see how this fall has been SLOWED by these PTR support levels. A "rule of thumb on PTRs is that if you BREAK THROUGH ONE (either going UP or DOWN) you have to RETEST that PTR (Almost to CONFIRM the breakthrough).
SRPT looked like it was bottoming out in the $20-$25 PTR Range when it cycled in that range for about 4 months from July 10th to October 27th. It takes POWER (volume in the case of stocks) to "BREAK THROUGH THE FLOOR OF A BUILDING" and SRPT got that volume back on October 27th when it "gapped down" on 15.7 million shares on bad news". the $15PTR Level held until December 11th when SRPT closed under $15 on about 1.8 million shares). It retested the $15 from December 30th to January 8th, but FAILED to climb back above it. When you FAIL a retest of a PTR like that, odds go WAY UP that must test the NEXT LOWER PTR (which in SRPT's current case is $10.
Now if you scan back in time on SRPT you will see a LONG TERM HISTORY of STRENGTH at that PTR so we have a decent shot it will hold.
It BETTER though because if you go all the way back to July 24th of 2012, SRPT has a HUGE OPEN GAP from that date (when it just JUMPED up at the open from $3.46 to $7.36. The sad truth on Open Gaps is that MOST OF THEM eventually GET FILLED. (Proof of that is evident from the closing of the even BIGGER Open Gap on SRPT (from $14.99 to $31.73 on October 3rd 2012.)It was THAT OPEN GAP that finally got slammed closed on November 12th of 2013!
What that all means to your trading? Buying right now is LIKELY premature in the short term, because of the odds of SRPT testing that $10PTR.
You are very welcome rollapair.
Just thought I owed this board a final thought on the SRPT technicals, as well as the market CORRECTION input!
I have done my bit.
I can only SPEAK.
I cannot MAKE PEOPLE LISTEN.
I will now just follow my old classmate's sage advice, and just "fade away"!
Yes Harry. But be sure to read what I posted closely, because there is a BIG DIFFERENCE on how to BUY SRPT at this point based on the actual MONTHLY CLOSE!
I NEVER predicted"ANYTHING".
I just told people that "TECHNICALLY", SRPT had a very high "PROBABILITY" of retesting the HIGH VOLUME NOVEMBER 2013 low; so they needed to PROTECT AGAINST THAT PROBABILITY by hedging their positions. Obviously, my advice was NOT WORTH PAYING ANY ATTENTION TO!
Just ignore that probabilty idea though "outinfront," so you can always remain financially "STUCK IN THE OUTHOUSE"!
No, Dan, THAT was not the major problem! The biggest 2 problems that I faced on this board was that:
A. I was giving people the TRUTH (in my technical analysis) rather than worshipping the CULT MONSTER that some tried to create here. (No one wants to ever hear their baby has a few warts!)
B. I was fighting a PARADIGM. (In that a lot of people who know NOTHING ELSE AT ALL about technical Analysis..."KNOW WITH CERTAINTY THAT IT DOES NOT AND CANNOT HELP THEM"! (And in a strange and ironic way...because they are so close minded about it...they are proved RIGHT!) This mentality (though just built on opinion NOT data) will NEVER ever even entertain the possibility that it might be wrong.
I find that the idiots who know the LEAST about ANY SUBJECT are always it's biggest critics.
What are your thoughts on "A ROUND EARTH"?
How about "MANNED FLIGHT"?
And of course..."A TRIP TO THE MOON"?
No need to hang your head Copp. You were always one of the more open minded on this CULT STOCK board.
Anyone who has an OPEN MIND at least HAS a mind; and anyone with HALF A MIND can see that all SRPT is doing TECHNICALLY HERE is retesting the November HIGH VOLUME MONTHLY LOW at $12.12.
The way RETESTS like this work is as follows:
A. If we CLOSE BELOW that previous low of $12.12 on MORE THAN 97 million shares MONTHLY VOLUME, then SRPT is "TECHNICALLY BROKEN", and can go to $zero.
B. If we CLOSE BELOW $12.12 ON MUCH LIGHTER MONTHLY VOLUME (than 97 million shares); then SRPT BECOMES A "TECHNICAL MUST BUY"!
C. If we CLOSE BELOW $12.12 on LIGHTER VOLUME (than 97 million) then we are IN THE PROCESS OF PUTTING IN A BOTTOM, BUT CAN GO A BIT LOWER FIRST! (So, buy in "PRE-PLANNED $ AMOUNTS at EACH WHOLE DOLLAR AMOUNT".
BEST OF LUCK to all (whether you HEED or DISREGARD the TECHNICAL ADVICE!)
Please be aware that the 25%+ MAJOR MARKET CORRECTION that was set up "TECHNICALLY" to occur back in October (Gee, with the election imminent...I wonder WHY it didn't CORRECT then!) IS STILL AN OVERHANG TO THIS CURRENT MARKET!
I Know that most of you do NOT get my market technical updates (much less SRPT updates); but I STILL DO WISH YOU ALL WELL. (Even the arrogant pompous "Faux Wizards" on this board like Red Lobster, who struts around acting indignant and snarky all the time on this tiny forum while "making himself a "SMALL FORTUNE". (Unfortunately, he started out with a "LARGE FORTUNE!")
(He isn't ACTUALLY A TECHIE who knows something that you lay folks don't know, but he plays one on TV.)
Best Regards, Bud Rolfs
MY has now finished RETESTING the upper trend line of the SUB-CHANNEL that guided it to the "FULL CHANNEL CORRECTION".
As I told you above back on April 30th; once this retest finished MY would then begin the "COMPLETE RUN TO THE UPPER TREND LINE OF THE UPPER TREND LINE OF THE OVERALL UPTREND CHANNEL"; and it now HAS BEGUN THAT MOVE.
For those of you who get my charts;
A. NQ hit the lower dashed trend line of the BLUE DASHED SUB-CHANNEL and reversed upwards ar the $11 MID-PTR ICE AREA yesterday.
B. It is now heading up to the upper trend line of that same BLUE DASHED SUB-CHANNEL (which will take it about half way into CONFLUENCE OVERHEAD RESISTANCE at the $15 MID-PTR ICE AREA)
C. Once it hits that upper BLUE DASHED TREND LINE; it is likely to pull back short term; and then the NEXT RUN UP WILL BE CRITICAL BECAUSE THAT WILL BE THE RETEST OF THE LOWER LONG TERM OVERALL CHANNEL LINE (at about the $16-$16.50 area)