The market knows well ahead of time. The trend reversed and there has been follow through. Some are saying La Nina for the Summer. Don't place your bets based on weather. The dollar will weaken at some point and oil is bound to strengthen or we'll be in a war or recession.
I'm sure the earnings report is already priced in. If its better than anticipated, it'll pop. Otherwise, we'll be like most commodity based stocks this earnings season. Nearly all refiners are close to 52wk lows along with all other energy names. There are a few bright spots though. VTTI is a bargain, as are other refining logistic LPs such as WNRL (getting some nice NTI assets).
Who listens to CNBC? Neg rates are a disaster for any economy and do not work. Low rates and easy money policies create deflation which slows investment. We are witnessing alot of unproductive investment as a result of easy money policies; hence too much everything. We need a strong currency and normal rates.
Yep, CLMT shouldnt be spending any money right now. Given 4qtr margins are usually poor, I doubt earnings will be rosey but I hope I'm wrong. Optimism isn't priced in thats for sure.
A project producing negative leveraged returns when it was projected at 20% isn't too bad eh? I dont see CLMT selling DP this early..but CLMT would probably buy out MDU's stake. I would if they were selling. Everything is cyclical and I'm hopeful the new CEO can figure out how to maximize this companies assets. Management is evaluated on long term results when things aren't going their way. This commodity cycle is a good measuring stick.
Analyst: That's helpful and I guess it would also be helpful to get your current thoughts kind of longer term strategically thinking about how the refinery fits in with your longer term plans?
Martin A. Fritz - President & Chief Executive Officer, WBI Holdings, Inc., MDU Resources Group, Inc.
"Yeah, obviously longer term – short-term, we are working on optimizing where the plant is at. Longer-term, you know this is a business you have to get in on scale, not just one refinery, you have to have several or else you would exit. Obviously, we may not be the right long-term owner but at this point that decision hasn't been made."
"Earnings were impacted by unplanned outages in October and November due to equipment problems that have since been repaired."
"The Dakota Prairie Refinery, in which the company has a 50 percent ownership interest, began commercial operations in May. The company's share of 2015 refining results is an adjusted loss of $20.5 million, and a GAAP loss of $22.5 million, as a result of dramatic changes in the oil commodity market. The Bakken basis differential from West Texas Intermediate pricing has narrowed, which has increased the refinery's cost for its oil feedstock. At the same time, reduced oilfield activity has decreased the demand for diesel fuel and a slowdown in Canadian tar sands development has reduced the demand for naphtha. The company continues to focus on operational improvements to the plant that could increase its daily processing capacity and profitability."
The same author was promoting CLMT on SA about a year ago and disappeared without responding to alot of comments. While one can flip their opinion at will, it'll likely go back to bullish and than bearish when its obvious. You buy when there is a margin of safety, not when things are going extremely well.
I like NTI but it'll be WNR soon. I'd rather own WNRL for income. Strong GP and growing distributions. I've bought a few others but not adding to my CLMT position. No reason to yield chase when there are strong LP's with 7-8% or less yields.
Agreed..no cut because the deal won't go through otherwise. Or, they'd have to modify the terms. ETE worth well over 8 in 2018.
That is, if you want to own oil/energy. I've bought shares of a few names and still hold my small CLMT position. I haven't been happy with the fundamentals of the company over the last 2 years though. Mainly, capital allocation and strategy. Overpromising and un-delivering. I question their hedging practices too. They should spin off their logistics at some point too.
Funds have skated from energy..CLMT needs to keep reducing leverage...Dakota Refinery and Oilfield Services/Anchor have produced negative returns on capital thus far...capital allocation is #1 and they're not batting a very high percentage lately. However, the market is irrational and there are opportunities. CAPL for instance raised its distribution and continues to sell off. ETE trading at $8 (probably a double or more at some point in the future), and plenty of others with growing distributions and low debt.
No way. Not enough money on hand to do a meaningful buyback. The GP would have to do it. CLMT needs to focus on only one thing right now, leverage. Get that debt/ebitda down to below 3 asap. Lower their cost of capital and get the share price up.
I recently bought shares in ETE and it'll likely be range bound and pegged right around this level until he merger goes through. Its not responding to oil or ng moves and is in no way correlated with the broad MLP/GP names.