Quite a few large bio's were up 3-6% while Nektar eeked out 2% after getting a Movantik approval last week. Sad!
Any owners of Egalet should be crying today. It's down 27% after the FDA required additional trials for their ER oral morphine. One of Nektar's competitors. CARA has got knocked down and now EGLT. HRob needs to get things right. AZN and Baxter can do it but can Nektar?
Fortunately AZN was willing to do the Movantik filing and got FDA approval. AZN must think the product is worth selling. I doubt Nektar mgmt could have pulled it off. Visit the Nektar's website. They now have a "Media Site" and HRob is doing some snipits. Small biotechs are getting hit the last few days. CARA, which was talked about last week, is getting a bigger hit.
Nektar retains the $70 mil and gets an additional $35mil. They get $100mil on the U.S. launch and $40mil on the Euro launch. Also get signficant and escalating double digit royalties plus potential $375mil in milestones. As far as near term news Baxter has the Bax855 filing which will provides milestones. Will also see approval for Movantik in Euro and Canada this year. . Q1 brings NKTR-102 ph3 data and shortly after that Movantik launch. It's a matter of time and but currently Nektar gets no respect.
"price depression in many small phamas"
Biotech down in general and the hedge funds just sell everything and probably are oblivious to Movantik pdufa date tomorrow. It's a buying opportunity if you feel good things are going to happen.
DC - The BofA report from last spring has the 2018 royalty rev of $152mil. Brean has $331mil, Jefferies has $93 mil and Piper has about $84mil. All of these are for Movantik in 2018. The estimates are all over the place and they are probably guessing like the rest of us. AZN once had a Klausian sales number.
September is time for the director's options to awarded. In 2012 the date was 9/14 and in 2013 it was 9/19. It'll be interesting to see if they make it before the PDUDA date of the 16th.
or they were blindsided by the Baxter release and had not yet prepared their own. Then again I always felt that HRob has no interest in the price going up until he accumulates more options.
Strange going into the Q release yet up 2.7mil and the share price falls over $1.00 in the period. The only negative we heard in the call was a slight delay in the ph3 NKTR-181. Maybe they expected more but they should be in a covering mode right now.
Let me explain what I mean by that. 30 days after we stopped dosing, matured mice will re-challenge with the same tumor cells and the tumors were unable to grow in 70% of those mice without any further drug treatment. In other words, their immune systems retained memory of the tumor being formed.
These tumor re-challenge experiments truly exemplify the potential of NKTR-214 combination regimens to mobilize the immune system to recognize and eradicate tumors.
Actually in the Q1 call Doberstein mentioned 214 into the clinic late 2015 but probably early 2016. It looks as though HRob moved it up in today's call. Too bad that the scientists can get their work done but the next step (clinicals) seems to lack expertise. HRob needs to be responsible for the turnover of CMO's which probably delayed the 181 ph3. Time is on his side with all the options he is accumulating. One would also think that with AZN's big push in oncology they would be interested in nktr-214. Right now we need Movantik, BAX855, and NKTR-102. Will they move the share price is the big question..
I still look for a 181 partnership for the EU portion before the ph3 trial. HRob said the partnership would happen and to me it makes sense that Nektar doesn't want to pay the full bill for the trial. So my guess is AZN next week.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
So what is Nektar plan on doing with this? Who knows! HRob puts on a great show during his Q conference calls but nothing makes the press because he is not interested in an increased share price. I wonder how he will downplay the expected news this quarter. He can't shutup Baxter. He can't shutup AZN.
HRob has no incentive to move the share price as long he is piling up the options. He limits his press releases to keep the share price low. As I said in the past, unless you listen to the conference calls, you don't get all the details. Ph1 completion of NKTR-171 was only announced in the Q1 call, no press release. We were kept in the dark about the NKTR-181 ph2 (25) patient subset where there was an observed separation between NKTR-181 and the placebo. After a failure of the primary endpoint ,when the stock tanked $3.31, wouldn't it make sense to tell shareholders when they found out the subset info. HRob acts like he owns the company and cares less about the current share price.