I agree that free advice is worth what you paid for it, nothing. And sometimes advice you pay for is no good either.
Taking any advice without thinking for oneself is usually more costly than ignoring it.
Falling in love with a stock can be more costly. Taking bad advice only gets you into a bad trade. Staying in the trade is an ongoing decision, that one keeps making every day.
Acting only on advice or views one agrees with is more costly than doing nothing.
I think he got this idea from Jeff Bezos. It's what Bezos did with Amazon shares when he was trying to hold it up after it fell hard from it's big high. It worked for a pop each time, but each announcement became more ridiculous and had less effect then the one before. And the stock drifted down. What got the shares back up, was not Bezos' hype, but a positive Christmas quarter that beat expectations.
But if you do, then the buyer will be in your winning position, and you will miss all the upside we "DIP ISHTS " are so totally wrong about.
Didn't they already announce the home battery? If that's all it is, a ceremonial rollout of something the market already knows about, you can expect a big sell off on the news.
I think you have a good point there. The truck culture clearly likes turbo diesels, and big gas V-8s. The only thing a Tesla truck would offer a buyer in that crowd would be bragging rights about drag races. Anyway, I'm not a bull here. But i won't be surprised if Tesla tries a truck. A scooter or motorcycle would have problems with the weight of the battery pack. But a big one could fit under a truck bed.
How far a tweet moves the stock demonstrates how disconnected the price is from any solid fundamentals.
That's just a wild guess, but it's not a car, and it's something that could use their current systems. Guys buy a lot of trucks to use for general transportation rather than for hauling, and they spend a silly amount on them. It's a big market. I'm not predicting anything. it's just a shot in the dark that it's a truck.
Those things are good and have value. But when you buy them in a popular stock that went up 1000% because everybody wanted it at the same time, then you lose most of your money. That's if the innovation and genius are the real deal with good execution, marketing, timing, luck, and no competition. Otherwise, you lose it all.
Amazon was a great short sale. I got 100 points out of it. Its up again because they posted a tiny profit for the December quarter. Now AMZN has a problem. If they show earnings over a few more quarters, they are at risk for being valued on their earnings, like everybody else. At twice a normal PE, they would be under 50. But their growth is based on giving stuff away at cost or less, so they may return to losing, while dazzling investors with revenue growth and promises of eventual earnings.
If TSLA had posted some earnings, it's price could have rebounded too. But TSLA's customers go on vacation skiing in the December quarter, and Christmas didn't get them out of the red like AMZN.
The new paradigm (AMZN) business model, where sales growth without earnings drives up the stock, only works in an intoxicated market. But it's looking doubtful that TSLA can keep growing sales, even at a loss. Anyway, even if it could, in a bear market such stocks fall to single digits. Any company that won't make money, but has a high stock price, is just a tulip bulb.
In my experience technical analysis is usually not reliable because people expect a clear signal from it at every bar. I think it is good at showing what the market mood was or is when the mood was/is strongly focused. Most of the time the mood is mixed and confused, so the patterns are weak and don't predict future moves well. But on rare occasions the pattern may be very well formed because the crowd is highly agitated and emotional. Those are the times when a technical pattern can be a tell. I don't think it can predict timing close to the mark. But it can identify what's likely to happen. T/A is like reading the market's "body language". And like people interacting normally there usually isn't a lot of critical information in it. But observing hotheads in an argument, you might see a body language signal clear enough to get away from there before the violence starts. Behavior patterns are slightly predictable when known buttons are obviously getting pushed. Breaking this support level at the base of Rat's triangle will be seen by many market watchers as a tell, so it can be somewhat self fulfilling.
Because T/A is so limited, there remains much uncertainty. An alternate outcome would be a huge green bounce on Monday on some good news with a short squeeze. In that case, the story about the base of the triangle will be all about how the price refused to stay below it, so then it's bullish.
That's how technical analysis is practiced. Whatever the price just did, T/A can explain it. But even with its deep flaws, I think Rat has a better chance of being right Monday with his use of its concepts, than anybody making the same prediction for some Monday at random.
Why would I want my car driving around my property with nobody in it?
I agree with you to the extent that what the price will actually do Monday morning is uncertain, and all sorts of things could happen over the weekend to affect the open. But Rat made a good call on the breakdown. That was a big descending triangle. This hammers home the reality that the stock is going down, not up. Before this, it was easier to rationalize hope. A lot of people are going to worry all weekend. A big wild card will be how many margin calls have been triggered. The stops below the triangle are mostly taken out now, so at least you don't have that selling to worry about. But margin selling could make Rat right on Monday, especially if many people on Sunday evening send sell orders to be executed at market in the morning.
Maybe Musk will have a desk on the Gigafactory floor too. When it comes to batteries, I guess he can "roll his own".