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Permian Basin Royalty Trust Message Board

bull_or_bear_no_pigs 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 4, 2015 4:34 PM Member since: Oct 14, 2009
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  • bull_or_bear_no_pigs by bull_or_bear_no_pigs Mar 4, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    Does anybody have any analysis of hit to earnings the strong USD will have. The EURO is down 10-15% and sales will be down proportionately, but are the European operations at a loss? The loss will be prop reduced making EPS better. has anybody found any articles that went thru the currency data in the 10K?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Dead Money?

    by rhomolka10 Feb 26, 2015 12:09 PM
    bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 26, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    more like stalled. as long as the general market holds up, a few more taps on the 25 door and we should get thru.

  • Reply to

    Corning Opening

    by hobomtsz Feb 25, 2015 10:00 AM
    bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 25, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    GLW went ex-dividend today for a 12 cent payout. If you owned the stock yesterday you will be paid the dividend. Todays buyers won't be paid the dividend. The opening price of the stock is adjusted for the dividend that was in the value yesterday, but is gone as of this morning.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 25, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    Looks like yieldco gets the lions share of the operating cash and profits. I sure wish they were explaining better how yieldco will impact existing fslr holders. Leap of faith on Needham's part to trust that all will be just fine and adds value of $5 to their target price presumably form lower cost of capital.
    If fslr management already has revised forward guidance assuming the yieldco, then they must have details on how they expect it to work.

  • bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 24, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    atco - sure hope that you're correct and they can explain over the 2015 guidance reduction in the CC. The YieldCo seems to give with one hand and take away with the other.

  • Reply to

    Will FSLR holders get shares of yieldco?

    by lizs_icss Feb 24, 2015 10:26 AM
    bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 24, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    from the earnings press release - what the heck does this mean? is guidance significantly lower for 2015 now or is this mainly a Q1 trashing?

    " the first quarter is lower relative to results in prior periods primarily due to the completion of the Desert Sunlight and Topaz projects and the retention of projects on balance sheet in relation to the announced plan to pursue a joint YieldCo vehicle with SunPower. This is also expected to weigh on financial results in future quarters over the near-term."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 24, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    don't understand your point. FSLR short interest was down to 11% of the float as reported on Jan 30th. That's nearly a full month ago. The current run up from the YIELDCO announcement has nothing to do with short interest going from 14% to 11%.
    There may be a "short squeeze" as part of today's run up, but the data your citing has nothing to do with today's move.
    Sorry this is overly critical. Did I miss your point?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Insiders Selling

    by parentbirmschool Feb 22, 2015 8:46 PM
    bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 24, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    it is likely options that are expiring.
    options are granted at fair value otherwise tax is immediately due on the discount from market. since glw stock has gone up over the years, the options to management have gone up. when the options are exercised, income taxes are due on the gain (ordinary tax not capital gain rates). So if someone wanted to exercise and hold they would need to come up with cash out-of-pocket to cover the original strike price plus withholding taxes due on their gain. There is no advantage to the individual to do it this way. Same result if they exercise their options/sell the stock and then buy shares in the open market.

  • Reply to

    Will FSLR holders get shares of yieldco?

    by lizs_icss Feb 24, 2015 10:26 AM
    bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 24, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Don't know exactly. What I think happens is:
    Yield co is formed and sells shares (IPO) to the public to get initial funding for operations.
    FSLR sells completed projects with defined cash flows to yieldco.
    -benefit to FSLR is immediate sales recognition (not sure?), but regardless cash is upfront to help fund the next project.
    - yieldco is like a bond company. as the revenue comes in from "selling" electricity, regular dividends are paid to its shareholders.

    Anyone involved with other yieldco's know details?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 24, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    Bump this thread! Nice call whether it was the technical set up or the Yieldco. First hour traded over 7m shares and almost covers the short interest. Let's hope that's not all the buyers out there! LOL.
    Other risk to get past is todays earnings and CC. Good news should continue, but you never quite know with this management group.
    sr.cosa - got an upside target?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 21, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    Bill - of course shorts aren't always right, but at 11% of the float they will influence the market to the downside. Unless droves of new buyers show up they will likely keep the price suppressed in the near term.
    Did you give me a thumbs down for posting a fact (it was contrary to the bull side)?
    BOL

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 20, 2015 10:15 PM Flag

    "no stock to short."
    as of Jan 30th, 11% of the float disagrees with you.

  • Reply to

    Haven't seen a GLW day like this in a long time.

    by fatamalle Feb 10, 2015 4:11 PM
    bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 12, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    If the afternoon holds up, we're having another one of those days. That would be 2 out of three and yesterday's off day was quite low volume. For want of a catalyst, we could be seeing 30 sometime soon! Maybe the street has forgiven management for their screw-up surprises over the last couple of years.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bull_or_bear_no_pigs by bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 11, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    So $850m for 25 years of power. Construction to start this year and be complete next year. Wonder how they'll book the revenue and profit. This could be a YieldCo all by itself!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Don't get too excited

    by hon_su Feb 10, 2015 7:26 PM
    bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Feb 10, 2015 11:30 PM Flag

    GTAT - really!! Sapphire crystal has never been made in production as a cell phone screen. FSLR is a bit beyond the prototype stage.

  • bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Jan 2, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    cardboy has it correct.
    Technically this was a sell recommendation, but it was in fact presented as a short. The short implies take a risk over the possibility of a market reaction but keep your stop loss close. Not quite the same as saying get out of a stock because the prospects are bad.
    fwiw, the short and the long term holders could both be right - it has happened in other conference calls where the initial reaction tanks the stock, but it recovers and starts a move back up within a few days.

  • Reply to

    First Solar Charging Higher In 2015?

    by renaldo1952 Jan 1, 2015 1:11 PM
    bull_or_bear_no_pigs bull_or_bear_no_pigs Jan 2, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    WOW! some kind of misleading, create your own facts post here, END_REVER. FSLR net income was a loss in 2011 and 2012. It returned to profitability in 2013 with $4.35EPS, 2014 is expected to be $2.35 (project slip, hence the YIELDCO discussions) and 2015 estimates are back to $4.53. Cash flows have shown a similar positive trend pattern.
    Price risk in how they handle the 1st qtr guidance update and how they present the current declining price of other energy commodities - gas primarily, but oil will also need to be addressed. Risk is there, but there is also significant upside.
    Running out of cash or mis-managing the cost structure shouldn't even be on the radar for an investor looking at this stock.

    Sentiment: Hold

PBT
8.09Mar 31 4:02 PMEDT