Not a chance in HHelll, but you are absolutely correct. Maybe, just the slightest maybe, 'IF' Rand Paul gets elected.
We are all being quiet, afraid to say anything that might jinx the downward momentum and mess up our dreams of one last chance to load the boat with MNKD shares at $4 BEFORE Liftoff! Oh, and Shorts are a bunch of Pathetic Girly Men who can't possibly force MNKD below $5! ; )
If it ever closes below $5, I will abstain from this board for 30 minutes, and stop speeding above 80mph for 1/2 day, and stop swearing at slow lethargic drivers for 2 hours - wife will be happy anyway!
Considering the tax-loss carryforward, and the fact that your scenario would indicate at least 600K Afrezza adopters in the first year, I would expect a 20X rev. multiple, possibly up to 25X
We don't get 35% of sales, we get 35% of profit, or supposedly roughly 25% of revenue. So it would equate to around 250M. A 12X P/S as Kevin is conjecturing would result in $3B to be divided by 400M (?), and thus yield a s/p in the vicinity of $7.50.
I prefer a 20X revenue metric, which would yield about $5B, but I would utilize 500M shares to be safe, thus yielding a s/p of approx. $10 just on the straight revenue - of course their are other intangibles which I suspect might easily provide an upward bias resulting in a s/p of $14 to $16
WS's biggest players are in the thick of this, not to mention genuine organized crime elements - about a snowball's chance in Hadeees that Washington will turn on their masters; but nothing ventured nothing gained I guess.
Lower the better for now - hope shorty can get enough shares to drop the price to under $5 - what a gift! Shorts only have to worry possibly about insiders purchasing large amount of shares - imagine Al wants the shares as low as possible before he pulls the trigger though, so likely no worries for months, especially if the market rolls over.
That works. Excellent post btw., thanks. I will bookmark it.
Brilliant tactical post FITM - you just kicked out one of the last short arguments! What fool wouldn't rush in here for a minimum 3-fold gain in under a year? The shorts have nothing. I still hope they can knock the price down to at least $5.50 before liftoff though.
Keep up the good work mate. We all know that once sales come in as expected, the revenue value will be much closer to 20 than 10, and it might easily exceed 20 for the first couple of years once the first market capture rates are established. And of course by 2020, MNKD likely will have leveraged Technosphere into multiple other income streams.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Understandable - my concern however is just that, the potential for a rapid market correction, a 'rout' if you will. With pretty much all the market gains over the last few years being attributable to the Fed's interjections and share buybacks due again to the Fed's cheap money - such events tend to take almost everything down hard, and of course MNKD has an entrenched short group with a vested interest to capitalize on market weakness, not to mention biotech usually is especially vulnerable. Will be interesting to see if we regain $7 today or if the recent low is retested.
Anyway - best of luck.
Interesting, but I can't see Al selling MNKD, even if it just Afrezza alone, for $13
Of course if this market were to enter a genuine serious correction, even enter a prolonged bear market cycle, and MNKD shares dropped to say $4, well then that is a different story.