With approx. 6M US diabetics, out of approx. 29M, currently needing insulin supplementation, and factoring in say a 7% annual increase in that population (likely a low estimate), by 2023 there will be approx. 9.65M US diabetics requiring insulin supplementation - seems Afrezza should reasonably be able to capture at least 1/2 that 9.65M population by 2013, or roughly 4.8M diabetics.
So, 2M Afrezza users by 2023 is likely low by over 50% - I actually suspect Afrezza can capture at least 65% of the 2023 insulin supplementing US population by 2023, but who knows for certain.
Extrapolating - fitm's $8.96 NPV figure could be more than doubled.
Obviously though, Sanofi, or some other BP entity will need to begin promoting Afrezza with a reasonable DTC TV campaign.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
So with approx. 6M currently requiring insulin supplementation, at only a 7% annual increase in that population, roughly 9.5M US diabetics will require insulin come 2023 (considering the rapidly aging US population,that figure is likely low). Seems Afrezza could easily capture at least 1/2 of that ~ 9.5M population by 2023.
Would be interesting if 'the country' wasn't so small - like maybe China's absence from the original partnership is one of those things redacted.
Agreed - it appears it never really crossed Al's mind that Sanofi might not genuinely be on board. In Al's defense though, the old CEO may have genuinely been intent on a full-blown aggressive promotion, but the new guy torpedoed those plans; guess we will likely never know for sure.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Appears the market still has yet to grasp the potential which AVXL represents.
I guess one man's 'skyrocket' is another man's 'bottlerocket'.
Personally I think Al could get $3B right now from a number of BP entities, but I doubt he will even consider an offer under $5B.
One never knows for sure though, at his age and as stressful as this must all be, maybe he would be willing to just get his money out of it. Me, I would be happy to close this painful chapter at $8
Left Scottrade years ago exactly for this reason - they can't provide a stable reliable platform, not to mention they are way to expensive.
He has numerous IDs, usually some variation of richardoopriceer. He usually bashes, but lately not so much.