If that is true Mike, which I think about as likely as a snowball's chance in hell, then it will go down in WS lore as absolutely the Best Kept Secret of 2014 - and I will get you a $100 gift card to your favorite eatery.
That's not a lot. Any serious accumulation by a big player could turn the tables. One of our major institutional holders is the one who is suppressing the share price, one or more. Only another big player has the firepower to put the squeeze on, and so far no one is stepping up to the plate. Oh well - take us down Shorty, if you can, plenty of dry powder if you do.
Discussion of partnership/partnerships doesn't mean announcement of partnership. Hope it is announced then, but it just might not be ready yet.
Train hasn't even left the station and you are complaining 'we aren't there yet'? The deal will come, whether on the 11th, or not until Q4, it will come and Afrezza will go on to capture at least 30% of the market, probably upwards of 50% in time. Your patience will be rewarded. If final liftoff takes us to $45 minimum - eventually, what difference does it make whether we start from $8, $7, or even $6? Not a lot really.
Al is playing a positional game, slowly constricting the short side, meticulously laying the groundwork in prep for steamroller launch and unstoppable market capture. If our major institutions holders resume accumulation, short position will be simply untenable. Just be patient and expect the shorts to fight before capitulating.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Indeed - but the recent depression research has me most interested, turns out applicable for chronic refractory pain conditions as well.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Actually working with S-Ketamine - they want Technosphere for even quicker delivery. We are talking some recipients getting phenomenal relief from severe suicidal ideation in a matter of hours vs 6 weeks (4 to 8) for standard depression meds.
Well I jumped back in at $8.09, simply because I am afraid of missing a Monday announcement. If we drop below $8 next week, I am out once again, except for my 2016 calls which I have never sold. I have to agree that there is no reason for more than 2 months to be needed after the FDA's green light. Remember, not long ago we were all expecting a deal announcement to follow within days of approval, at most within 2 weeks. If that CC comes and goes without a deal, then any realistic person has to question how much interest there is. A serious BP contender is going to want to jump on this, not let the other guy get the jump on them. Al learned long ago not to leave money on the table, so it is possible he may be driving such a hard deal that no BP is willing to meet his demands. Maybe he is demanding a $ billion upfront and BP is only willing to pony up say $250 million. Maybe he is demanding $750 million from each of two joint-partners and that is a sticking point. Or maybe BP partners are just dragging there feet as a bargaining ploy, knowing full well that the shorts, with the market downturn assisting, will just bleed Al until he is forced to dilute. No way to know for sure, but I will be patient as I am certain Al will see Afrezza to commercial production, even if he has to go to the Chinese for a deal he may not be totally comfortable with.
Still would appreciate $7.50 next week, but even though any announcement is likely weeks away, even into October possibly, there is no way I am taking the chance of missing out.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think $1700 per patient annually is closer to what we will actually pull down (patient using Afrezza 3 X p/day) - I think the RAA global market is about $9B. No reason, assuming effective marketing campaign, that we don't make serious inroads into those 6 of 15 M poorly controlled on orals; common sense says at least 30%.
Indeed, I certainly had uncertainty, especially when shares were, and presumably are in such scarce supply for borrowing. In retrospect, selling a good bit higher would have been the ticket - thus the reason I am always passed over for the cover of Forbes! ; ) Personally, I have had the hardest time accepting the possibility that a deal wasn't just 'days away', that it might be into Q4, and that it might not be nearly what we have been expecting. Sadly, I have come to the suspicion that the interest by BP wasn't quite what we have been led to believe. If today was the bottom, or it appears that way, and I see evidence our institutional holders have stopped skrewing us - I will be back in force.
Need a break from posting for awhile, so I think I will go into lurking mode for a time, maybe take a vacation from the market all together.
Truly Best of Luck to You as well
I have a big position in AMBS as well, from 7 cents, and I think it goes to 50 cents before long.
Never said I thought it was a lie. I am a trader - so I traded. I am well up on MNKD and until I see major accumulation sufficient to stabilize the share price, I see too many other opportunities which lack this intransigent short opposition. As I said I will be quick to reverse course if I see what I am looking for. Nobody increases a losing short position the way these guys have unless they know something, and it may be as simple as they know there is no deal until October/November. Have a lot of 2016 calls which I am holding. When Matt came out and 'clarified' that '6 to 8' week statement, that led me to believe that it could easily be 12 to 16 weeks, which caused me to strongly suspect there isn't all the aggressive BP interest which we had been led to believe. After a year's worth of work by Greenhill, there should have been no need for more than 2 weeks to put the finishing touches on a deal.
Tripled my money and sold when it couldn't hold $9.70 - except for my 2016 calls. No idea whether shorty can take us lower tomorrow, to $8ish, or eventually to $6ish - they did it before. Will be quick to jump back in when the selling is over. BTW it is our institutional major holders which are behind this, at least a couple of them. Al has had more than enough time to get a deal done, everything, except dotting the 'i's, SHOULD have been done at FDA approval.
I sold yesterday when it couldn't hold $9.70, so I don't care how low they take it. This is dead money until either a partnership is announced, or institutional major holders stop selling/shorting and return to accumulating. As for the shorts, it is hard to argue anything other than they have outplayed the longs in this endgame. No way to know if they are playing for dilution or an unfavorable partnership deal, or even an outright severe market correction. I tripled my money, and will be quick to jump back in when it looks like the selling has subsided. The $1 target is of course absurd, but $6 is not. Personally I hope we drop to $8.25ish tomorrow, if not further.
Not that it doesn't eventually prove out to be accurate, just WS right now isn't buying it apparently. Could even be a setup to a planned bear-raid. A partnership will need some serious upfront cash component or it could turn into another 'sell-the-news' scenario.
By most recent estimates there are ~ 29M diabetics in the US (~9.3% of population) of which ~ 21M are diagnosed. Of those 21M, aprox. 28% to 31% use supplemental insulin (depending on whose figures one uses). This gives us roughly 5.9M to 6.5M US diabetics currently requiring supplemental insulin. We know, from pfg's prior work, that a ballpark annual figure of ~ $1700 per diabetic is likely realistic (this is wholesale with discounts and all - this is from memory but I am certain that was the consensus figure) - so just to be safe, let's say $1600 per diabetic Afrezza user. So,10% of 5.9M is 590,000 diabetics, or using 10% of 6.5M is 650,000 diabetics. Let's take the 590,000 US diabetics currently utilizing insulin figure and multiply by the (apparently conservative) $1600, and you get $944M annual revenue. Now you will have to apply some metric of your choice to extrapolate a likely share price - some posters have done this using a P/S ratio of approx.13 similar that of REGN, others argue that considering the accumulated tax loss carryforward plus the already expensed insulin in storage, that the resulting margins will justify a P/S multiple of closer to 17/18 similar to PCYC's.
Personally, I expect at least 10% of the target population will be lining up to try Afrezza within first 3 months of availability - so I think roughly $940M in revenue should be achieved at least by Q3 of 2015. I can easily see an eventual 40% market capture, and since the US insulin volume, by $ amount, is approximately 1/2 of the Global $ amount - we should be safe in roughly doubling the revenue projections for ROW Afrezza sales.
*Note - by 2015 there will likely be 22M diag. US diabetics, and the above projections don't include the ~ 15M diabetics who are currently poorly controlling their BG swings utilizing only oral meds/exercise/diet regimen.
*US prediabetic population is ~86M. *RAA insulin use is increasing at ~ 12.4% annually. *Adjustments must be made for a partner.
Sentiment: Strong Buy