Hopefully this is correct and we have seen the worst of the share price suppression, but I think MaxPain was way way higher than $7 (like $9), so it seems it would have been more realistic for TPTB to have taken the s/p way up going into Friday's close, even if for a brief period. I actually bought in expecting such a rise to at least above $7.50, but no such luck - I have always found MaxPain to be very unreliable though, so no great shock when my little strategy failed.
Agreed that we need some clarification by Matt on this - exactly what has been the R&D expense to develop Afrezza and will that all be rolled into the cost of Afrezza to SNY, and over what time period? Hopefully Matt will be back in on Monday.
Weird about Yahoo -
While I agree that Technosphere has been validated by Afrezza's approval, and BP is likely considering it as a means to protect the soon to expire franchise of certain drugs, important to keep in mind that any new application will require years of trials - the FDA just isn't likely to allow other drugs to be delivered into the lungs before they are convinced each drug will not be harmful to the lungs, even already approved drugs - I mean insulin was approved and is even a natural substance created by our own bodies, and look at the time it has taken, even after Exubera paved the way; there are cheaper ways to protect one's patents, like reformulation, or combining a couple of already approved drugs, or going the time-release route. Just want to keep it realistic here.
How does a country of 200M, any country, qualify as small? Brazil has about 200 million, but hardly qualifies as small.
Come on Mike - Israel's population is only about 8 million if I remember correctly - or were you posting in jest?
You know yankee, that sounds good and all, but it just seems the shorts have dominated here for the most part - maybe they did try and break the 200 dma dramatically on Friday, and maybe they were thwarted by some inst. buying, but by and large they have dominated, and that is not to take anything away from Al. For whatever reason, there isn't sufficient accumulation taking place to overcome the short campaign - maybe that will radically change come next week, or maybe we will be at a stalemate for who knows how long. That is another short tactic, they understand that retail needs their money to make money, and so they often will just fight to maintain their gains for an extended period of time. We really could use a seriously positive catalyst before sales figures come rolling in by March (I hope by March we at least have some idea of sales, otherwise it may not be until June/July - this may be solely up to SNY and they may be unwilling to release partial quarter sales figures for Afrezza).
You will get lots of negative responses for this post. Nothing but foolish deluded pumpers here, for the most part.
I exited on the deal's pre-market spike, specifically due to the cash upfront component. I reentered too soon, but determined that if $8 broke I would sell. I posted it in a discussion at the time. I have kept my existing 2016 calls, foolishly it turns out, but I didn't have that many, and I was back in adding 2016 calls when we held the 200-dma on Friday. I also will sell once again if that line doesn't hold; but possibly everything this time. If the shorts are that powerful, then I have no idea how low they may be able to take us in the next few months, and there is no way I am willing to ride this down to what ever point that is. Agree wholeheartedly btw, about the equity stake. I can't believe after Greenhill worked for a year on this, that Al finally had to settle for this deal. I suspect Al has simply underestimated the market's reaction to the deal and maybe didn't really appreciate the dead-money aspect and what it would mean for the share price. What will be really sad (not that we will ever know) is if Al didn't even push for an equity stake, cause he didn't realize how important it would be to countering the short's ability to continuing their attack. The shorts must be grinning at their good fortune. SNY would have made money on an equity stake, but now they are free to accumulate an equity stake much much cheap; they may be scratching their heads at their good fortune and wondering why Greenhill didn't make it an upfront requirement. Of course it is possible that an equity stake was requested, but they refused and Al had no choice.
Looks like your common sense response wasn't appreciated. LOL
Obviously the shorts are holding because they expect dilution, and/or another drop of gold towards the $1250 mark. For what ever reason, gold just can't seem to reach escape velocity, and as you said there is just no pressure upon them at this point. ANV needs to address their financial position, and until they do, one way or another, they will be plagued with the short anchor keeping them a perpetual underperformer.
Agreed - that is where the shorts and the masses they influence have it all wrong, actually even trying to compare Exubera's failure with Afrezza is absurd. 3-bagger in 12 to 14 months.
You have nice fantasies - not that it wouldn't be welcome. I've been going out to the 2016 calls, never ever buy those near-term capital destroyers.
No - it isn't, expound? If there is something as obvious as you intimate, usually fast money starts pouring in not out.
Sounds Cool Enough - but they all gotta go thru the long arduous FDA obstacle course.
Yeah, that would mean there are leaks for this sort of information, by banker types and the like! If that isn't the height of absurdity(?) - leaks from WS types. You tell em mnholdem!! You da Man!!! LOL
Bet that is the best they have. I was feasting on those 2016 Calls, as no doubt others were as well. Though I was holding out for an dive to $6 support - maybe the sissies can take us there next week.
I think his point was there is a good chance of dilution "before" we get to those 'sales figures', which btw won't be in 'next quarter'.