I sincerely doubt that the rate increase (if it happens) will be big. We are headed toward rough waters so money printing is the most likely outcome ahead of us in the near term not rate hikes. The FED is bsing itself with any moves. The economy is too weak.
If all is good and happy, why is gold and silver rising. Supposedly there is low inflation, the economy is gaining steam and there are no worries out there in the world. With that scenario, gold and silver should be sitting around doing nothing. Yet, it has been a hockey stick rise since January. Anybody want to explain that?
There is not sheriff, but the ability to suppress pricing is being degraded. Ie Deutche Bank admitting the issue etc. Once somebody asks for delivery and its denied, the game will begin.
Deutche Bank??? You mean the one on a cusp of its own huge solvency issues...you mean the one that that admitted to gold and silver rigging. Good source.
Ed- Nobody is wishing for a dollar collapse. However, I think many have to face the facts that the world wide economy is in shambles...lots of issues beyond other times in history. If 2007 never happened, then maybe I would be skeptical. However, it did and the government kicked the can down the road so now whatever is headed our way is going to be multiples worse. So, I don't believe this is just a slow increase due to inflation. Many of the big western nations are bankrupt. China/Russia are coming on strong. The dollar has a lot more competition. We've had zero interest rates for years. Nothing like this has ever happened. Nothing is normal right now regardless of what others have said. Therefore, I expect a very different reaction in the gold/silver markets than what is expected. The demand for physical is very high and the supplies are limited. What happens when people start demanding delivery of physical? Ed- you have made some amazing comments on this board. Your analysis of CDE is not be missed. Don't underestimate what is happening in the markets today.
I think we are in the early innings of a large metals movement. Eventually (and maybe quickly), people will realize that they need physical gold/silver. The prices could be limit up and get to some fantastic levels which means these mining stocks will be selling at multiples of these prices. I have quite a few shares myself. I am planning on selling when it looks like there is gold and silver mania going on. Look at some of the respected analysts..they think gold could be anywhere between $2000 and $10000. Silver will be in the 100s. If the dollar suddenly collapses..watch out. Who knows the timing, but it appears to be in favor of those who are long. I think shorts might catch a pullback as nothing goes straight up, but it will be short lived. Just my two cents. When I mentioned $20+ I think it could easily be this year.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You have some interesting points, but I think inspire of that and future possibilities, the gold/silver price increases will dramatically outweigh any minor fooling with shares. I truly believe that this is a $20+ stock or greater with huge metals price increases.
By the way, I have a lot of experience in markets like this. Aside from gold/silver, I used to buy the boom/bust cycles of the semi conductor equipment stocks. The key is earnings. If the earnings are explosive and huge, then stocks can exceed past prices even with more shares outstanding. Where do you have the chance to see every $1 of increase in a commodity, dramatically increase prices. This is the perfect storm in reverse for gold/silver investors. Only amateurs wouldn't see this. :)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't think you are understanding my argument. The mining stocks are still cheap relative to the expectation of the gold price. They have gone through a nuclear winter in the last 5 years. They are very lean right now. Many mines were shutdown and supply is tight. Add to this that those manipulating the price are losing ground. 2% short is fine, but I hope you stay long because mining stocks are a once in a lifetime buy right now even after coming off extreme lows in January. If silver is $30 plus, what do you think that they stocks will be trading for??? A lot higher than how. Most investors make the mistake of selling after a short term gain before the stocks really make big returns. It's all about earnings not past pe ratios. The earnings potential is HUGE if the price of gold and silver goes up as many expect. Doesn't guarantee it, but the circumstances favor it. This is my point. I wouldn't short these things. How many times have you see a group of stocks go straight up for months??? Doesn't have much. What is that telling you??? This is the beginning of a massive move. The time to consider selling the miners is when we have a pronounced mania which is going to happen. Good luck to you.
Let's not forget a way overvalued stock market that is ripe for a big downturn. People will flock to gold and silver if that happens.
Tomorrow-- I guess you don't get the mining sector. This area just came out of one of the work downturns in history. They were at historic lows and have just return to reasonable prices. The fundamentals are fast improving. Gold and Silver are most likely going to go up. If it does, you are talking about very cheap mining stocks. Go ahead and short. I think you are missing the big picture--so we have a deeply lagging economy..a contentious election...a potential default on Deutche Bank with would be a massive hit to our system...21 trillion in debt...Brexit...Italian banks on the cusp...Deutche bank just admitting they rigged gold and silver, strong gold and silver demand, China and Russia constantly flying into our space, history interest rates (0) percent..the talk about bail ins, many pundits seeing this year and next as big up years for gold and silver, silver being completely out of whack to gold ratio wise, Drunkenmiller and Goldman both thinking gold is a good buy and no more bullets by the FED...and you want to short gold and silver stocks. LOL. I guess you are right. Not much to be concerned with. I can guarantee you that if you maintain your short, you might make 10% or 20% if you hit it right, but you most likely you will lose 100's of percent's.
One last note- if you listened to the company's conference call, they were very bullish about the next few quarters with a silver price of $17ish. They are significantly reduced costs during this vicious down term. All increases in gold silver go right to bottom line. What do you think the price is going to be when silver passes $20? $5 a share??? Try $12 to $14 or share and you'll be down $6 on your short.
Not a good idea. You might get a point or two, but gold and silver are going to be much higher in the near term. There is going to be a huge flight to safety as things get worse. You want to short this stock against that? I think you are looking at a $20 to $40 stock in the next year or two. Look at the history when silver was in the $20s. Silver could easily go past $50 this year with the right "black swan" events. I think you are taking a huge risk for marginal gain.
Sentiment: Strong Buy