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Simon Property Group Inc. Message Board

bullishstkpkr 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 4, 2016 2:02 PM Member since: May 7, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Simons have $22 BILLION in DEBT

    by boiler_room_bermuda Feb 4, 2016 12:52 PM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Feb 4, 2016 2:02 PM Flag

    Oh my, a REIT with a lot of debt - shocking! Come on Bolier - you have been shouting about debt for years and no one cares - debt is part of the business model. And over the last three years SPG refinanced most of it's long term debt to lock in low rates (which is one of the reasons it has been able to increase its dividend). Most of the debt is non-recourse. And, looking ahead, does not look like your pal Janet is going to increase rates all that much any time soon. Bear case comes up short again.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    What happened today????

    by kevinjbatten Jan 29, 2016 6:22 PM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Feb 2, 2016 10:03 AM Flag

    Not talking about all mall companies here - just SPG. Occupancy came down a bit this quarter, but average rents are up, SPG's balance sheet is strong with lots of cash and the company's pipeline is packed with new projects that suggest continued growth. It has pruned lower quality properties from the portfolio over the past several years. Shorting real estate may not be a bad strategy - but you need to pick the right company to bet against. SPG is the best in breed and you are going to get hurt (some more). Do yourself a favor and pick another company if you want to play the don't pass line.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    What happened today????

    by kevinjbatten Jan 29, 2016 6:22 PM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 31, 2016 5:23 PM Flag

    Here you go - it's a giant conspiracy to drive the SPG shorts to financial ruin. Just when they think there is an opportunity to make some money on share price decline, SPG recovers and wipes out those who put on a short position.

    The truth is, the internet isn't going to ruin malls, certainly not overnight. Shopping center fundamentals are generally good - people still enjoy shopping at stores rather than in front of a computer. Bricks and mortar and internet shopping will converge and find a balance that allows both to exist. SPG shares recovered after the earnings call. Much of the recent weakness tracks the market.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Boiler knows best?

    by bullishstkpkr Jan 22, 2016 9:15 AM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 29, 2016 1:54 PM Flag

    yep - now down $.28 - likely to finish on the upside.

  • Reply to

    Boiler knows best?

    by bullishstkpkr Jan 22, 2016 9:15 AM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 29, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    Typical Wall Street over-reaction - now down just a buck. I'm guessing most shorts got burned again - they were wary of going short because SPG was so strong over the past week, got in late today as the stock tanked and now it's just about back to par. (Curses, foiled again).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Beef Jerky outlets

    by boiler_room_bermuda Jan 27, 2016 9:46 AM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 28, 2016 12:51 PM Flag

    Pretty sure this makes no sense whatsoever - what were you smoking this morning?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Shorted $184 covered $179

    by edaldworth Jan 22, 2016 11:40 AM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 26, 2016 6:38 PM Flag

    Hmm - +$4.99 - bet you didn't see that coming. Of course, people who post positions that they have taken as a rule are excellent market timers and generally are able to sell for a substantial profit just before it hits the fan (and we believe you, we really, really do).

    More short pain at the end of the week when SPG announces earnings.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Shorted $184 covered $179

    by edaldworth Jan 22, 2016 11:40 AM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 22, 2016 12:01 PM Flag

    Be ready to post add'l equity for your short position when SPG announces strong earnings and increased dividend on the earnings call at the end of the month. Some good news may be baked into the price - but if the company exceeds expectations (as they have pretty much every quarter for the past few years) shares will spike up (and shorts are toast - again).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bullishstkpkr by bullishstkpkr Jan 22, 2016 9:15 AM Flag

    Dopey analysts - apparently they didn't take the time to read Boiler's thoughtful analysis about the demise of the shopping center industry.

    Simon Property Is Poised for a Strong 4Q15 Release
    "Of the 25 analysts following the stock, 20 have assigned it a “buy” rating. Simon Property received no “sell” ratings and five “hold” ratings. Presently, Simon Property has a consensus “buy” rating with a price target of $226.10 over the next 12 months. The price target represents a return of 16.3% in 2015. We’ve noticed that analysts’ estimates and recommendations have a large impact on a company’s stock price."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    What a Bubble

    by edaldworth Jan 15, 2016 3:55 PM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 19, 2016 2:39 PM Flag

    He he he - really frosts your cojones that this stock won't collapse. Spoiler Alert - it's not going to. Maybe you should find a nice oil stock to watch - if you are looking for a train wreck that should do the trick.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    May 31, 1999

    by boiler_room_bermuda Jan 12, 2016 2:11 PM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 13, 2016 2:10 PM Flag

    Boiler - that is not even close to right. Retailers come and go all the time. Gap's problems are much more a function of fashion and logistics. Gap is a look - it was hot for a long time, and now it's not. That is a risk retailers contend with all the time. Gap also sources things the old fashioned way- it orders goods months in advance. The new elite retailers (Forever 21, H & M, UniQlo, etc, etc turn goods around in weeks. Gap has been dying a slow death for years - maybe mgmt can right the ship or maybe Gap goes away and some new up and coming retailer fills the space (gap?).

  • bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 7, 2016 10:02 AM Flag

    Macy's cleaning up its portfolio is a good thing - the retailer has almost 800 stores - getting rid of the bottom 5%, presumably the worst producers, should strengthen the company. Here is a fact you should know - as a rule, department stores pay little or no rent for mall locations - typically they own their stores in shopping centers. In the rare cases that they don't rents are extremely modest. (Hence the push by activist investors to have retailer chains separate their real estate and retail operations to create value.) Bottom line, department store rents aren't going to fall and even if they did it wouldnt affect SPG's earnings in a material way. Have not reviewed the Macy's list, but would bet no stores are closing in SPG properties. And here's a last tidbit that is a sign of the times - convergence of e-tail and Bricks: Hudson Bay is buying Gilt. The Hudson Bay CEO appeared on CNBC - find the interview. He agues strongly that consumers want it all - bricks and mortar and internet channels - successful retailers need to offer both.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 5, 2016 2:27 PM Flag

    Bolier - A little early to say I told you so (by about 2 hours) - but should have bot Simon at the close yesterday like I suggested and picked up $4/shr for your efforts. If you then could have hung in there for another few weeks, you would collect a dividend as well. On the other hand, as a perma-SPG-short, I'm thinking that if (when?) you actually flip and go long it would be a massive capitulation and a huge sell signal (so please let us know).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 4, 2016 10:51 PM Flag

    Boiler - you have been singing the same song for several YEARS now and SPG continues to defy your predictions. I can hear the pitch you make to your wife - "Baby, this time SPG is headed south, really, I'm sure! Bricks are getting crushed by the internet. We just need to short another $50K and we can make everything back and I'll take you away for the weekend - good times at Motel 6 and a big dinner at Olive Garden. Come honey, it's going to be different this time - you'll see."

    Shudda gone long and collected the dividend: Simon is solid, tenants may change, but malls aren't going anywhere. Shorting leads only to sadness and ruin. Come back to the long side - the force is strong!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Jan 4, 2016 2:43 PM Flag

    Money - you're not meykan any sense here. The dividend is the 90% distribution. There is a carve out for REITs in the tax code - they pay no corporate income taxe provided 90% of net income is distributed to shareholders (who pay taxes). There is no such tax provision for MSFT or AAPL - although interestly Microsoft does pay a dividend which at the moment yields close to 3%. But the comparision is silly (apples and malls, er, oranges?) - different sectors, different risks, different everything. Simon's average portfolio rents continue to increase as does occupancy. This does not suggest that tenants are failing. Today is probably a good entry point - the stock is off sharply with the market. REIT's have traditionally been a safe refuge for equity owners when the markets fall apart.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bullishstkpkr by bullishstkpkr Dec 31, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    Strong finish on the last trading day of 2015 and for the year as a whole. Not quite back to $200, but beat the major indexes over a tough 12-mth period and raised dividend every quarter along the way. Sorry Spoiler - another disappointing year for the shorts - maybe next year (but I would bet on it).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bullishstkpkr by bullishstkpkr Dec 17, 2015 12:00 AM Flag

    Weak Men's Wearhouse numbers apparently not a major SPG market market mover. Interest rate concerns more significant, but seem to be comfortably baked into the share price. Two days of strong moves to the upside push Simon back to the $190's - next stop $200. (Simon breaks the shorts' hearts once again.)

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    $22 BILLION in debt

    by boiler_room_bermuda Dec 4, 2015 9:45 AM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Dec 7, 2015 8:28 PM Flag

    Simon has created enormous value for shareholders - if someone conspires to push him out he deserves every penney. Not exactly sure what that has to do with leverage - perhaps guess you are trying to say that the value has been created by financial gymnastics, so it isn't deserved? I disagree with the premise, but even if you assume it is true - the stock has run from the $50's to $200 (and retraced a bit lately) and shareholders have been enriched, the assets are fully leased, rents are rising and the company is positioned for future growth. I am pretty sure this is what a CEO is supposed to do.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    $22 BILLION in debt

    by boiler_room_bermuda Dec 4, 2015 9:45 AM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Dec 4, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    First of all, all real estate companies are built on debt - historically, that's the nature of this beast. Kind of like how internet companies (with a very few exceptions) are built on volume and hope, but not much profit. And after all the press and hoopla - on-line sales represent just over 10% of total retail sales. Think about the infrastructure that would need to be put in place if this moves to 30%, let alone 100%, which seems to be working assumption of the un-informed. Think massive UPS/FedX truck grid lock and skys thick with Amazon drones. But it isn't going to happen because people still want get out of their homes and shop. Developers like Simon get that the old style malls with cookie cutter stores aren't getting it done. So they are incorporating much more food and entertainment into new projects and redevelopments. Malls aren't going away, they are adapting as they have for the past 50 years.. Boiler - you should buy some SPG shares - stock is cheap. It will be back over $200 within 12-mths.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    $22 BILLION in debt

    by boiler_room_bermuda Dec 4, 2015 9:45 AM
    bullishstkpkr bullishstkpkr Dec 4, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    Not so fast - up $3.00 today. It's all about interest rates. So after a tough week, those who didn't sell at $200 a couple of weeks ago are only up 225% instead of 250% (not including the dividends). Shorts on the other hand have nada - burned their investment years ago and have nothing left. And if one did - do they really trust the market after being fooled so many times? Suspect there isn't the conviction to put anything at risk. Far cheaper to hang around the boards and offer dooms-day advice.

    Sentiment: Hold

SPG
180.81-1.67(-0.92%)9:37 AMEST