Based on last Q conference call I sense they might be acquiring another company, perhaps more than one, before YE14 Anyone else think that's reality?
The delay may have been a small blessing in disguise. If I take management at their work, they are FOCUSING on executing a successful rollout, which admittedly is no always an easy task. They said last year that the U.S. market can be easily penetrated by a small sales force. This will help keep expenses reasonable and manageable. I believe they are doing all they can to ensure the payers see the benefits to patients and profits... same for prescribers/doctors.
I believe they will set reasonable expectations and then over deliver early on. In any event, I believe its increasingly likely that more than one company has already vetted them. Part of this process can be very conservative, medium and high end sales projections until the funnels solidify. Depending on where these regional sales managers came from... they probably are already building that pipeline and have some easy layups or would not have been hired. Bumps or no bumps in the road ahead for rest of year and early 2015, I believe KERX is a company that will do wonders for its patients, doctors, and payers and for us investors who are not shaken loose from any of our shares until the end game is achieved and I believe that is having the company acquired. As I have repeated, part of me wants then to grow this longterm; however I'm all for a one-in-the-hand BO sooner than later.
Keep in mind that the CEO said in late 2012 that... If successful, he wants to sell all or part of the company. And about a year ago also stated.... this may be industry game changer in $1.5B market to double 10 years. “IF we’re ones that end up launching.”
If some company offered $8 today I'd be relieved and OK with moving on. And if we were lucky enough for a BO at $10 or more this year, then hooray. Just dreaming over coffee and admittedly I should go back and read the recent news and updates on what's happening... I've been trying to detach a bit from AVNR and other stock news in recent months to enjoy the summer as life is too short.
Added 15% to my KERX holding today. Doesn't matter where we are today, but where we are 1) 1 1/2 months 2) 6 -12 months from today if we are still an independent company.
Just me for my situation, but I not have a sell order in for $24 or any price. s Ron said while we are not over the finish-line...
I believe we are over many major hurdles and the future looks bright BO or no BO. Patience....
Agreed. Relax accumulate. Last I checked U.S. will need what they are producing for decades to come!
Intel's stock hasn't done that well in a ling time. Good for them to be able to profit. In this case, it doesn't mean this is a peak and that it won't go 5-15 points higher. MU executives sold much more at teens and 20s... now stocks at 33 ad many think 40-50-60 are ahead.
Somewhere out there is reality and today the market says that's in the $5s.
Hopefully, sales do NOT decline for any unexpected reasons and any increases in sales are not overshadowed by excessively high sales and marketing expenses.
Hopefully we squeak by this Q and have proof of a solid ramp up following Q.
A Sept - Dec surprise or two would sure be welcome... SOMEHOW get the PPS to form a new base solidly $6-7 would be a relief.
Sell off was overreaction to worldwide events and a lack of duck tape available to seal Yellen's yap...
In the meantime, NOTHING has changed with KERX other than they are a few days closer to approvals and BO.
Disclosure, I borrow this from a poster on another board:
CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report (7/18/14): Dr. Schoenebaum Challenges Yellen Remarks About Small Cap Biotech Overevaluation
ISI Grp Bio: "MARK SCHOENEBAUM is a Senior Managing Director, heads ISI’s Health Care Research Team, and is ISI’s Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals-Major Analyst. He has been ranked Institutional Investor #1 Biotechnology analyst for the past 9 years. In 2013, his second year competing in the category, Mark was also ranked by Institutional Investor as the #1 Pharmaceuticals/Major analyst. In 2013, Mark was inducted into Institutional Investor’s All-America Research Team Hall of Fame, an award given to analysts who have earned at least ten #1 rankings."
During the CNBC segment, Dr. Schoenebaum, MD provided data and opinion questioning what Fed Chair Yellen (or her staff) was talking about regarding small cap biotech overvaluations. He stated that small cap valuations are in line with historical mediums and supported it with presentation of historical data.
IMO: Like I said before, Chairwoman Yellen overstepped her expertise and authority with her inappropriate and inaccurate remarks. It should be noted that Yellen was at the helm as CEO & President of the Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco at the time of the 2008 Economic Crisis. The biggest catalysts, Countrywide Financial and IndyMac, fell within her regulatory jurisdiction and responsibility yet she failed to regulate the disastrous so-called housing bubble, subprime loans and credit default swaps that precipitated this crisis. She failed to recognize and regulate the early crisis symptoms then and now she is mistaken with her inappropriate and inaccurate remarks singling-out a specific segment of our economy.
Good points; however there's a reality check to be considered:
1) Most direct sales people do not hit the ground running; it can often take 1-2 quarters (sometimes longer)
2) Sales funnels left for the new guys/gals by sales reps before them who were fired or quit often contain lots of worthless fluff (true for any company)
3) Direct sales reps come with a base salary, benefits, and other expenses (they do not work for free)
Its great they are replacing those lost and hopefully its also good that they are increasing headcount if they have confidence in existing built up demand, incoming leads, and upcoming near-term good news this fall that open more market opportunities. Perhaps even potential acquires are also sniffing around and vetting them partnerships or something better.
Still holding my seat on a rollercoaster that never seems to have a dull moment.
Dec 2011, I believe, was when Gary said they were positioning for a BO in 2-3 years, so your original timeline, like mine was correct. At that time I felt BO would higher and that we'd be trading above $10 by now and into teens. Pipeline is a good Ace Card to hold no matter if they sell it, spin-off or hold it. I'd be fine with $12-14 and believe that's a minimum Gary sells for. Although, I believe we still have potential to have BO higher than that someday... all depends of execution to their plan, which we likely don't have it its entirety (and shouldn't; especially any 1 - 2 exit strategies).
• Basic Materials & Energy / #2 largest Copper and major Molybdenum WW.
• Some Gold. Little Silver. Mines Indonesia, N. and S. AM and Africa.
• Small diversify into Oil and Gas in U.S. 6/2013.
• All good long-term retirement hold. Excellent Dividend. HQ AZ. MC $40B
Open Issues being addressed:
• Must improve cash flow.
• Must address 25% Indonesia tax. Once done, a big catalyst up.
• Must reduce $20.9B debt to $12B by ’16 / Good news they are quickly executing their plan to sell $4B energy assets to reduce debt and focus Gulf-MEX growth.
TBD, if success in the Gulf a catalyst up. Sold Eagle Ford $3.1B Q2.
May sell its 80% interest in Chili Copper mine.
• Some feel FCX not so good now, but even those say dramatic improvements 2015 and 2016 coming.
In the meantime, buy any dips or buy now.... sleep well with great dividend!
IMO FCX owns things the WORLD WILL NEED for many decades to come... long into retirement
Best to all longs and their families.
Corruption everywhere and so little integrity. if you want to take profits by all means do if its good or your short-term situation; however nothing has changed with KERX and I honestly believe with 99.999% certainty that KERX will be approved Aug or Sept. And they will be acquired within 3-9 months from now. If you are not a trader I think we will both be rewarded - BO of no BO.
Above is (not mine)... rather from... Today's The Street top-three breakout stocks under $10
Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR_), together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in acquiring, developing and commercializing novel therapeutic products for the treatment of central nervous system disorders primarily in the U.S. This stock closed up 1.2% to $5.62 in Thursday's trading session.
Thursday's Range: $5.38-$5.72
52-Week Range: $2.62-$6.00
Thursday's Volume: 2.01 million
Three-Month Average Volume: 2.93 million
From a technical perspective, AVNR jumped modestly higher here right above some near-term support at $5.32 and above its 50-day moving average of $5.20 with decent upside volume. This modest relative strength on Thursday is now starting to push shares of AVNR within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if AVNR manages to take out Thursday's intraday high of $5.72 to $5.83 and then above its 52-week high at $6 with high volume.
Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AVNR as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $5.20 or above more near-term support at $5 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 2.93 million shares. If that breakout gets set off soon, then AVNR will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $6.50 to $7, or even $7.50.