BEXP memories... one of the best stocks I ever owned in small energy!
I and underwater in OAS and WLL but added some and will add more if prices decline. Both will do great as we will always need oil and nat gas in our lifetime. The Mideast and rest of world could have an event any time and its increasing likely the Mideast will implode/explode in a major way within 12-36 months. Straits could be shuttered for a while and old 140s.
In any event, old will be back to 100-110-120 even if it touches 70-65 first.
I owned KOG some time ago. Own OAS and WLL higher but added a little to both. At these levels I like adding to WLL before OAS... just me.
I'm not expecting NCE and I don't believe management is by the tone of Ron on a recent Q call. That being said, it could happen and would be a nice+ to have for sure. If the PPS did drop on that news, IMO, it would only be taking from weak hands and would bounce back quickly as institutions and longs add.
Don't know how the odds of a BO by YE14, but think its at least 1:5 or 1:4.
Although a broken clock is right once in a while.... Sierra is a self-serving dirty rag that has no history of any value. I'm long KERX and believe a BO is possible and very likely... could be this year or before this time 2015 and if not I'm confident KERX will do very well standalone. Sierra is the last place that you should reply on for quality information.
Thank you to everyone who has helped educate me about AVNR over the years, especially during the most difficult times. Although stumbling and slow getting out of the gate, AVNR's PPS has done very well since I purchased and added. I continue to remain long, holding a majority of my original purchases and additions.
I have growing confidence that new indications will show great promise and are what's needed to make this company successful as standalone or as an acquisition. I'll check in on official AVNR news and update my alerts, but so many distractions concerning this trade/congo person take away from this board being all that it could be. (I realize, its like this on many boards.) While I agree with you good longs who counter his recent months of verbal pollution... I can't help but be reminded of what a much more enjoyable board this was in his absence - if only for a while.
Best wishes for a peaceful, happy, and healthy holidays and 2015 to all of you and your families!
I owned PCYC that I discover in 5s and was convinced in a weak moment to sell 2500 shares at 11s. The same financial advisor told me to sell MU at 10-11s and intel at 17, Advised me not to buy Netflix at 70 and add to Apple at 280... I could go on and on. I later fired this person for so much bad advice it can still upset me a little today. .. bad advice and fees. This person and firm is gone and I've been on my own.
Although I did not purchase Netflix (on that advice)....
Years later I added to to Apple.
Added to intel at 19, 22 and 25.
Added to MU at 12,14 and 18. Never selling a share until I trimmed a little recently.
What will KERX do - I don't know. I sold a very small percentage of my shares once and bought back twice. Surprise news could cause me to bail on KERX... I cannot predict the future, but for now I and long KERX. I certainly feel better owning now than years ago. Much of that old risk has been vetted. I truly believe there is chance the company is sold before they launch and very likely they are sold before YE15. And if not, they will be very successful... good for patients, their families and KERX shareholders for many years to come.
Greatly appreciated. Any time I get a little impatient or concerned you come up with some gems of hope.
Owned KERX since low single digits, adding on the way up, selling a few times up 3-5X. Kept core that's ~78% of my original holdings. All "free" shares. FDA approved drug to launch end of Dec. BO speculation anytime through MID15. In any event, they have an opportunity to grow, do well and be very profitable from YE15 on... they are in a dialysis market that is growing and expected to grow for a long time. and can be easily penetrated with small focused sales force.
KERX and AVNR are my only small, speculative bio pharma. Disclosure, I own much more KERX than AVNR. As we know, there is risk with any small company. KERX is no exception and as with AVNR, the shorts are nasty... although far less so the past several months. And they have a good amount of cash in the bank and excellent patent protection that has a chance to get even stronger. Check out their top 2-3 holders... this should give you confidence!!!
Happy for you paying yourself and locking in profits. Yo can never be faulted for that, especially when no one knowns your personal situation better than you do.
Happy holiday season to you.
I cannot help but wonder that the Optinose approval was expected and when that didn't happen... it weakened AVNR's hand a bit sort-term. Approval might make it easier to "sell" the acquistion within the acquiring company, it's board and to shareholders taking more risk off the table. Perhaps I'm way over thinking this and for a very large pharma this wouldn't matter too much or affect the PPS offered dramatically like it would for a smaller acquirer.
I think it would be a serious mistake for AVNR to go alone in the EU based on what they have approved today. I trimmed some AVNR 12-13s. a while ago and most of those were "free" shares. Plenty left that if a BO happens this year or 1H15 that I'll be a very happy camper or happy if the grow on their own with new approved indications...
Happy holidays to all
Thanks for the details. Perhaps they have another surprise or two up their sleeves. Management appears confident... and with majority of regions director and distys increasing sales we might be fine.
This company could be acquired any day! Maybe this year maybe next year and if they have a successful launch and are not acquired by this time 2015, they will be rocking as a independent success story!
Some analysts have said if this breaks low $13s on higher volume we could break out to 16-16.50. Would be nice heading into the holiday season and if others are vetting the company for M&A
Can never count our chickens.... however this story from a credible source is interesting detailed speculation combined with facts...
Good luck longs and AVNR Management team.
I like the PICO news the best and that all sales territories are performing better again and acquisition jitters made channels slow down as their was uncertainty about some of their futures... this cloud appears to have lifted quickly. Kudos to their sales management and teams.
hird-Quarter 2014 Highlights
Revenue up 18% year-over-year to $71.5 million
Non-GAAP net income of $5.5 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, excluding amortization expenses, acquisition costs and unrealized foreign exchange loss
GAAP net income of $3.1 million, or $0.14 per diluted share, including amortization expenses, acquisition costs and unrealized foreign exchange loss
$113 million in cash and investments at September 30, 2014
Repurchased $6.6 million of common stock under share repurchase program
Acquired assets of RF medical device manufacturer Ellman International, Inc.
"Cynosure delivered record third-quarter revenue of $71.5 million, up 18 percent year-over-year as revenue in each of our direct sales channels improved from the same period in 2013," said Cynosure Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Michael Davin. "North American laser revenue increased 17 percent, revenue from our Asia Pacific subsidiaries rose 46 percent, while our European direct sales channel was up 7 percent. Product and technology innovation, expanded indications and new international marketing clearances continue to drive favorable results for the Company."
"Demand for our flagship PicoSure® Picosecond Laser Workstation continues to exceed our expectations," Davin continued. "Based on enthusiastic customer feedback and patient and physician satisfaction, we believe this technology is becoming the gold standard for the removal of tattoos and benign pigmented lesions. New FDA marketing clearances, combined with recent international regulatory approvals in Korea, Taiwan and Australia, demonstrate the successful execution of our strategy to drive growth for PicoSure worldwide."
I honestly do believe you'll be fine if you hold a few years. I plan to trim near 30, more at 34 between this time next year and YE16. Staying optimistic.
Pharmacoeconomic Abstract Selected for Oral Presentation
Results from a Long-Term Safety Extension Study in Chronic Kidney Disease
Selected as a Late-Breaking Poster Presentation
NEW YORK, Oct. 23, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (KERX) today announced that two Ferric Citrate-related abstracts have been accepted for presentation at the upcoming American Society of Nephrology (ASN) Kidney Week 2014 annual meeting in Philadelphia, PA from November 11-16, 2014. An abstract regarding the pharmacoeconomic impact of Ferric Citrate has been selected for oral presentation and an abstract with results from the long-term open label extension ("OLE") study of Ferric Citrate in dialysis dependent chronic kidney disease ("CKD") patients with elevated serum phosphorus has been selected as a late-breaking poster presentation. These abstracts are now available on the ASN website.
From what CEO said in the past two years, that 10 companies cover 80% of the patients, so a small sales force can cover them easily. Nothing has changed on this.
Last month he stressed stressed that Insurance company relationships key and are going great. I believe he said they had already hired 6 regional sales managers for the U.S. and planned to hire 59 sales people.