Pickens and others feel putting many of nations truck fleet on NatGas would go a long way to giving U.S. an energy policy and more independence.
In response to your, "if you want to be a success.investor"...
Sadly, you coming across like an old snooty guy who's been hanging around dirty old energy all your life, but really never made it financially in that space. Someone who likes to say they short stocks and maybe you do. But also, someone who finds sick pleasure when others lose money. A bit of a narcissist, trying to project an image of being an oil guru who sprinkles crumbs of advice on us poor minions. - A legend in your own mind. Perhaps even an angry retired teacher the union protected because he was ineffective in his role.
I am taking a paper-only bath on several energy plays I purchased a few years ago. I admit that. I am fortunate to be using a small percentage of the money I made getting into Brigham Exploration near their all time lows and believing in Bud who sold the company at a price that I thought much too low at the time. In hindsight, he was smart taking his profits given where oil is today (in this battle). My other two oil/NG plays like this are even riskier. Hopefully, these don't go to zero like my Enron did (again being honest). And that's ok, because I've never sold a share of SLB I bought years ago.
I'm not the brightest bulb and probably don't know history like you, yet knew enough about tech in early 1990s and lucky enough to go through one high tech IPO and one BO. Somewhere along the way a dear friend worked tirelessly to introduce me to Apple Computer and twisted my arm to add over five years when most wouldn't touch it. That was a true life changing financial experience for me and my extended family that I'm forever grateful to him for...and take NO credit for... other than holding a very long time only trimming a few times to diversify.
To anyone holding WLL and similar energy plays, I wish you well with your investment and hope oil prices settle and rise slowly to more reasonable levels without causing further damage to jobs and national security.
I would never want war. I'm simply trying to make a point that I wish U.S. had a strong energy policy that protected our homeland jobs, etc. And made it easier to do business with friendly and neutral countries rather than letting our enemies try to sett back small and medium US drillers and producers while our fed gov says and does nothing. BTW, I did not give you the thumbs down. And again, war is not something I wish for to partially deal with this problem.
Normally I dislike mixing politics and markets, however cannot help but think that TRUMP would not stand by and let Saudi Arabia and rest of mideast win an oil war to destroy U.S. oil and nat gas. While Obama appears to be liking this.
I need to remind myself of some things that give me hope... GE's experience successfully navigating very difficult markets four times in his career. His banking/investment banking experience. Great acreage they have in the heart of highest concentration of nat gas users in U.S.. Especially his transition of MHR from OIL to 85-90% nat gas.. if he had not do so, MHR might very well have gone away long ago. Frustrated - yes, worried - yes BUT LONG - yes.
I've held a long time and added, each time saying I already have enough and then saying I have too much. Still I may do it one last time (again) if all markets dive as shorts make final push... no matter I have plenty ; - )
Shorts and articles pointing to MHR shortcomings have increased dramatically the past several days. Some are balanced, but many have agendas to drive price to .60 if they can and at least keep it under a dollar. The longer they are successful, the tight the spring will become and if Gary delivers the pipeline sale and more clarity on the first JV between now and Labor Day (no later than end of Sept) we could see a big relief and a few monkeys off our back.
Any other good news such as announcing a second JV by YE15 or oil land sale (long shot, so Gary says) and 10-20% rise in price of nat gas would be additional great news. We NEED ONE IN A ROW, beginning with the pipeline sale agreement announcement Aug/Sept (minimum $525M... ideally $550K+). Next any better good news clarity on first JV.
Not giving this a thumbs up or a thumbs down. So there's a new hired out there somewhere that will join to focus on U.S. Sales... pretty difficult for this person to make things worse and this now explains why CEO said we shouldn't be focusing on weekly scripts, but the next few quarterly trends.
Its becoming clear to me (anyone else?), that the former CEO was clueless about building a sales strategy and sales force.
And what about the VP of Sales & Marketing they've had since 2014. Is he incompetent, too?
Or spread too thin and will now focus on WHAT exactly?
As the analysts would say to management, shareholders would appreciate "more color."
My patience is wearing thin and times like these make me regret not sell all near highs. I understand KERX has accomplished a lot over the years and have overcome long hard odds before, but I did not expect they'd be in this position now and I feel shareholders were lied to by the last CEO about how easy it would be for them to penetrate their target markets with only a small focused sales force.
Long and unhappy camper at the moment.
Company needs GOOD NEWS in Europe Sept-Nov. And any better signs of script life that shoe we are turing the corner in a good and meaningful way.
Perhaps Ron was never qualified and the new guys couldn't get enough control in time. Still, no excuses. This is the big leagues. They have one drug and as Ron kept stressing over and over... a market easily penetrated by a small focused salesforce... certainly not the way you want to set the bar low enough to make folks happy, but then manage and exceeded expectations for the first few Qs of sale onward. No matter. Now its all about flogging the sales force and getting all management hands on deck executing their roles... some of which better be execs meeting with key treatment facilities face to face and determine what they need to do to become a must have strategic partner, rather another, me too drug supplier. Create some exciting BUZZ and sell, sell, sell. - Billions in market cap are in play. Let the floggings begin ; - )
Perhaps a combination of poor sales execution out of the gate, much shorting and much manipulation and pressure behind the scenes and in the trenches from competitors... however, despite all this everything you say makes sense, especially the fishing and gathering of longs somewhere when the PPS is 4-6 X where it is today.
You must remember that all thee 100's millionares and billionaires have agendas. No one knows if ild will be 35-45-6o by YE never mind 70-80
BTW I'm long MDR. In when everyone aid avoid added some on way up and will add more if we get dragged to 2s-3s with all other ships. - Just hold or buy and you'll be fine if you have at least five years.... very happy you did i hope.
Gary on pipe: "due with our Eureka Hunter holdings divestiture. We were originally approached by one MLP, were kind of given a price range. They did a fair amount of work. We kind of gave them an opportunity to get to the number. We weren't satisfied with the number, so we went out to a broader group. It's a small though; it's less than seven. We presented to almost all of these parties. We've gotten three more bids now – or three total bids. We're expecting more over the weekend and this week. And so we will pick a horse probably by the end of the next week or at the latest the beginning of the following. All the parties are the parties that I think our shareholders will be happy that we would sell to. We believe that this is a tremendous asset. There's a lot of interest. We've been very, very selective on who we would show this to. We have chosen not to show it to our competitors, only entities that we believe can add value and can enhance the true asset that we've worked so hard to build over the last five years."
I don't believe Gary is doing any of this for a short-term BO. He has stated they are re-builidg MHR into a NatGas leader in the two shales where they have prime real-estate. Then reduce debt, clean up the books and more cost-effectively maximize their acreage and perhaps add a some land. Eventually, add a second JV (my guess, 50% shot by YE15) and sell balance of oil (my guess YE15-YE16).
This you might be blending and confusing what Gary said about JV and pipeline. I tried to post his quote on pipeline but Yahoo keeps deleting (ugh)
What Gary actually said, per transcripts about JV: (His Pipeline and Bank/Finacial comments to follow)
"So the Utica JV, we went through a long, prolonged process with a number of parties. We decided to choose one party predominantly based on economics related to their proposal, and those negotiations have been going on since March and here we are August. And I think it's important for you to understand that they have been very active negotiations. I can't even tell you the number for term sheets we're up to – in the twenties – but it's important for you to understand the depth and the level of the negotiations because we basically have been negotiating all the way to the definitive agreement. So we expect news of that in very short order, hopefully, early next week, and we will file 8-K according to that. We spent a whole lot of time looking at which wells we would drill, how we would do them and set the program to be a very, very good program and will help us prove-up acreage that we have over in Ohio. So we believe that we're very close. It's never done till the fat lady sings but there's been active, healthy negotiations and both parties are having great desire to complete the transaction. Citibank has been representing this on this matter since early in the year.
Hello. I realize that would be equal to several grand slam from these prices, but not such a big deal when he first built this company and I don't think the exit plan has changed except for the timeframe and switching oil for gas (both big deals, yes).
Correct, we don't know what the future brings. But if oil/gas stabilize or rises by mid-2016 ... Then elect a president who actually wants a U.S. energy policy (not Clinton)... A president who will support all U.S. energy interests rather than providing aid to problematic countries that are more against U.S. interests than supportive.
Convert minimum of 1/3 of the federal government's trucks to nat gas.
Continue improving efficiencies in exploring, drilling, harvesting and transporting oil and gas.
All that political stuff aside, bottom line, the assets they own will be worth MUCH more than $1, $2 or $3 per for decades to come.
Hope not. Back in 2011, I believe, Gary said, something along the lines of... "Positioning the company for a BO in 2-3 years (would mean 2014-2015), potential 20 and we're a long way from 20" with production greater than 20K/B/Day. They were more an oil company then and believe hereferred to (Statoil?) paying $4B for a company doing that. Who knows what the news will be tomorrow's markets - good and bad?
As he said on the last call, they are rebuilding the company... so that was then (oil) and now is now (nat gas).
Let's officially get: 1) One JV on board 2) the pipeline sold and soon after 3) Announcement JV for other area and 4) perhaps even selling more oil assets, although no rush if they don't get their price.
Hope they retrace highs and beyond before consider a BO even if that takes another several years. Do you want a few X or 15-20X?
BOD may want to consider breaking up the company. Spinning off its commercial security business (they could still sell to fed gov, too) and sending CEO with it so he "might" focus on what was his core "competency" while at Titan - accounting in the commercial space.
With the rest, stop bidding in areas that they have failed in over the fast five years and let that fade away. Maybe there is a bone or two they could sell off somehow?
The CEO hasn't been given plenty of time to turn this around.
Focus and direction is much needed and long overdo.
Still you can make money in any stock... and slow swings in KTOS can be worth 20-40% if timed reasonably well and you have 6-12 months. At some point KTOS will present another of these opportunities despite its leadership and BOD that's asleep at the wheel.
I do not presently own shares.