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Opko Health, Inc. Message Board

burnaka 75 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 11 minutes ago Member since: May 19, 2010
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  • 4k is now offered in Columbia, Uruguay, Barbados, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Alaska. England, Scotland, Ireland, and Poland. As of the last CC opk had roughly 10% of the US urologists on board, but was only in about 15 states. That call included only 6 weeks post Brli merger. THEY now are in all fifty with blood draw locations, clinics or individual drs. thanks to the brli footprint. Brli and Gendx do have a global reach and that is why we are now seeing 4k offered in places like Barbados. Opko still needs to penetrate Asia, though Eirgen does do some sales in Japan we need do more. We do have a Russian partner but so far the only country showing up as definite in that region is Poland. Give it one year, another 20 or so countries, and 70-80% US urologists on board. Figure 1m biopsies in the US, so if they can get 1m tests it will bode well if they are billing say 300 or 400 per test.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Feb 10, 2016 7:26 PM Flag

    Rocky Mountain West? So somewhere on the west side of a state that calls the Rockies home. Well, the six states that can claim to have a Rocky Mountain West there are over 40 urologists offering 4k, and 15-20 blood draw locations. So change Drs. or get one who knows how to read a medical journal. Check whichever state you are in, 4k is offered in all 50, including Puerto Rico, and in a couple South American countries.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 25, 2016 7:34 PM Flag

    Myopic people fail over and over and in the end, still cannot see beyond their nose. Revenue is the great magnifying glass. Think of the millions lost by retail shorts from 8-19, myopic. Longs...are still holding, and see quite well. Price will follow revenue, give it a tad more time.

  • Will hit in this q along with a small initial royalty. This cash infusion will assure a small positive eps., and a new revenue stream that will double each of the next 4 quarters. Given plans for international sales this and the pending IV formula, peak opk revenue could be in the 50-75 million range at no expense, ie., pure eps. Sp will follow revenue give it a little time.

  • If opk misses profitability this q, that is what is expected by the analysts, so no surprise. Fact is they will beat top line by 10-15 million, and bottom line by no less than.07. Sp will follow 400% rev. Growth, give it time.

  • Reply to

    February 10th

    by oechman Jan 21, 2016 3:58 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 21, 2016 4:18 PM Flag

    Opko also is in talks to partner ex us rayaldee, will not be as big as the pfe deal but it will add a partner, and some cash. No way to know if they will do one partner in the EU plus one in Asia, but it will benefit revenue, eps. and Cash on hand. With all the expenses, the cash line has been growing and should accelerate with any deal. Opko cash is in great shape and will likey grow through 2016.

  • Reply to

    little investor here-Mr Frost where are you?

    by weggie61 Jan 21, 2016 7:32 AM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 21, 2016 3:44 PM Flag

    Opko is in forbes fastest growing companies based on revenue. ABOUT NUMBER 43, give it time, price will follow revenue as revenue continues to ramp up. Average price to sales in this sector is about 7 opko is abouth half that based on 2016 sales. To get near average will take a little time, but I believe opko gets above average because revenue growth Iis top 10% of all companies.

  • Reply to

    OPK trend is lower-stop lying to yourself

    by mardaczx Jan 15, 2016 1:45 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 15, 2016 1:52 PM Flag

    See that was a double lol, umm, not the common more on, but the con as in u need cellars, or is that sellers. Umm, Con guy, if u aint covering here u r a 4dollar short, toast crispy dead portfolio guy.

  • Reply to

    OPK trend is lower-stop lying to yourself

    by mardaczx Jan 15, 2016 1:45 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 15, 2016 1:46 PM Flag

    MORE on this con cept

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 15, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    Ads, I have to say you have the testes I do not have, that said, you will beat the market over the next three years, earnings to explode. I could never make that play, just my strategy, your move, a grand slam, umm, in time. Opk should be a market darling by 2017 if pipe plays out and it should.

  • Reply to

    CC at JPM, Opko in talks to

    by burnaka Jan 14, 2016 6:53 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 14, 2016 7:51 PM Flag

    Failure, failure, my last visit here I had 31 red thumbs by now, this board is a waste, lol.

  • Reply to

    CC at JPM, Opko in talks to

    by burnaka Jan 14, 2016 6:53 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 14, 2016 7:48 PM Flag

    Just a side note on the 6 weeks, 1500 urologists, and full q, additional 2500 urologists, umm... that breaks down to over 50 a day if you take out Christmas and New Year time frame, leaving that holiday period in, 44 a day, when a new procedure gets cpt-1, they NEED come on board, for the most part.

  • Reply to

    4k score makes $$$$$ 1 FEB do the math

    by jhalin3531 Jan 13, 2016 5:11 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 14, 2016 7:32 PM Flag

    jhalin, you need relisten to the call, you sort of got the numbers right, but in the wrong places, sort of like misplacing a decimal point. 4k market does not = psa market. That said, if psa is raised where biopsy is a possibility, opko has the cpt-1 code nudging ALL urologists to use 4k, now considered standard of care prior to biopsy. The revenue potential in the US is an unknown until we have solid medicare reimbursement figures. I figure 395 is a solid grand slam number, and very likely reimbursement figure. Revenue will be in the 800m-1B globally, about 400-500m us.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net by burnaka Jan 14, 2016 6:53 PM Flag

    get an international partner for their Renal division. Expect this announcement in the next 2-3 weeks, no idea on the terms, or who the partner will be. The drug to be partnered initially will be Rayaldee. No idea if this will be another near BILLION cash infusion like the pfe deal, where opk is merging their HGH department into PFE's on a co-own basis. Not sure if the renal division's second drug Alpherin ( sp? ) is to be part of this transaction, but we will see very soon.

    On the 4k front: Opko mentioned that 40% of all urologists have now used the 4k test at least once, that is over 4,000 drs.. Interesting to note is in the last earnings call that number was at 1,500 6 weeks after the BRLI merger. With an additional Q under their belt they picked up 2,500 more users. Also mentioned was with the cpt code 1, 4k is now standard of care, so the remaining urologists will need either use the test or the could risk potential legal issues, ie., malpractice issues. The psa and testosterone validation studies are underway and those along with the claros device head to the fda in late q2. The two goals will be to get these machines into the general practioners office through the 400 person sales force. The GP actually orders most all psa tests, so the second goal is to corner the prostate cancer screening market, psa with follow up 4k which opko has cornered.

    The revenue at BRLI has grown 20% on average for 20 years, it is anticipated that this will now accelerate once marketing of Claros starts. They will be able to create a myriad on common tests for the device, and some not so common, such as genomics with the data from gendx.

    The high end 2016 revenue estimate was raised by 300m, I hate seeing that, as it makes beating revenue and eps. that much harder. Still, 2016 revenue will grow by over 100%, to roughly 1.3B, 2017 should double that again. Earnings in 2017 will have several drivers, and opk's organic revenue will surpass the brli contributions.

  • Reply to

    Is Rayaldee REALLY factored into the share price?

    by burnaka Jan 5, 2016 7:20 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 8, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    32 plus 17 a total of 49 red thumbs on my two posts on this thread. Thank you for all the dumbthumbs, and all the insight those bring to the discussion and insight into the improving fundamentals at opk. I guess this is a popular thread, I mean look at all those who red thumbed it, but did not read the post , think about, or discuss the posts. I know enough to never engage asimpleton in an argument, first thing you know you are at their level, and second thing you know, once at their level they beat you because of their superior experience. Yahwho should really do away with the thumb thing, but then it does create a sympathetic moment. Bows head in sympathy.

  • Reply to

    Arry to present at JP Morgan next week, Jan 11

    by burnaka Jan 7, 2016 11:49 AM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 8, 2016 12:34 PM Flag

    It met on pfs, time to disease progression, primary, I doubt it met the second end point, OS, extending over all survival by enough weeks to be significant because this is a death sentence disease. The drug was able to slow the disease down short term, but if it gave one more month of life, or 6 weeks, that likely did not meet 2ndary. The drug was better than the standard of care drug, so it will be used, and likely replace, or be used with the SOC drug if they do not interact, but the prognosis is the same. It is like this as an example, no treatment, survival 6 months, standard care say 7, with this drug 8.5 months. Is that A phenomenal improvement? No, but it is still meaningful to the patient and their family. Put another way, no drug has improved OS by more than a month or so, this drug did as well as the others.

  • Hope we get more info on phase 3 data. Am sure they did NOT meet secondary end point, which will not impact fda filing. The fact they did not elaborate on the data creates uncertainty. This conference should put the study front and center and clear up this concern one way or the other.

  • Reply to

    conversionnd get paid 3% while you wait.....

    by tinysboy312 Jan 6, 2016 1:32 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 6, 2016 1:59 PM Flag

    Great theory, the notes expire in 2033, and can be converted anytime between now and then proved opk trades above 9.20 for X days. About half the notes have been converted with the insiders owning a significant portion of the remainder. Those wishing to convert, beside the insiders likely did in the 16-19 range when the retail shorts took one in bottom. UMMM, you need a mutual fund, quick. Or you can SHORT the common and ask Dr. Frost for some of his notes paying 3%, sure that will work out great for yah.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 6, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Anyone who wanted to convert the notes to shares has been able to do so since last March. This extension is the forth consecutive extension in a row. So on any day in the past 9-10 months this perceived " NEW " reason for weakness has existed. Opk has made this same announcement 3 prior times, Opk traded up ALL three times, .20, .19, .08. The insiders own the bulk of the notes, this is not having a share price impact, and if history is our guide, opk should be up not down. I do love market manipulation theories, but this time the theory and facts are out of line.

  • Reply to

    Is Rayaldee REALLY factored into the share price?

    by burnaka Jan 5, 2016 7:20 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jan 5, 2016 8:09 PM Flag

    WOW, I post here so little I forgot about RED and green thumbs, lol. SO rather than a combined 11 thumbs down, lol, discuss what I posted, give an insight, opinion, geesh, state you disagree, but do not know why, lol, but a dumbthumb is just that.

OPK
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