Short term, love or hate the deal, fine. Short term is 4-5 still a possibility, yes. Post merger will the distribution get slashed? Very likely, YES. Did KW shaft share holders guaranteeing himself current distribution? BIG BIG YES, in fact shady. In the LONG run, the real long run, 4-5 years from now, HOW will the deal look? How quickly will the distribution grow once the debt is corralled?
So, sure, you can sell and likely get in cheaper, but the only question that matters is what type of distribution growth will be possible in the future? How BIG will this new company be, and what type of synergies can be realized a few years down the road. YEP, short term, a very cloudy picture, price could tank, no doubt. If it does I will look to add, but as stated/asked what is the BIG picture?
From a short term trading perspective if the deal is called off, we cheer, both stocks rocket, even after paying a fine. Upside will eventually be back toward historic levels, if oil permits.
From a long term perspective, KW REALLY REALLY wanted this deal cause he believed it would make him FAR richer with it. KW now knows he is over paying, given current conditions, but I think his original big picture idea was right. So DEAL, no DEAL, both interesting situations, long term, I think DOING the deal pays off, after MUCH SHORT term pain.
ETE is now trying to minimize the potential synergies to make the deal look bad, umm, thinking those are far closer to the original projections than the newer, slanted info.
The high for opk over this span was 10.98, so at best they are up .54, they could be up an extra .50 over 1.00 if they went long in the 9.33-9.55 area. If when we breach 11.00 this last batch is in the red. Likely some are now, but all at that number.
Coach, sign up to the opko uncletizz board. Leave this sty. At that site respect and no name calling, or monopolizing the board is allowed. Every article, links to filings, short interest, etc is all in one place. Proably the best investment site on the net, umm, but is heavily opk slanted. Other stocks get posted in appropriate places, and research can be added there. I did notice you are not a member, or at least not by the name Coach. BEST of luck
ps. Revenue set to double price will follow.
Grodman, the former ceo of brli resigned. He intended to resign post merger. He stayed long enough to see merger done, and opk to get a replacement. He DID have a HUGE parachute package. His leaving did not impact share price or short interest as Motley portrays. Short interest has barely budged since last Nov- Dec., Opko has moved with the market up, down, except for the pudfa run up, then down on the delay.
Opko went to great lengths to get him to stay post merger, he DID sign a covenant not to compete.
The brli CEO stepped down. He intended to from the beginning of merger talks, and Opko had to negotiate his staying post merger. His contract to stay was open ended, where Opk could let him go, or he could walk based on cause. So no way to know if this deal was set while Opk looked for a replacement, but it is not that strange. He did sign a no compete clause.
He also GOT a BIG BIG golden parachute negotiated as part of the merger deal.
So pointing it out as THE fool did, ok, but do not think investors EVER noticed. Opko has moved inline with market, and sector, for months, bucking the trend into nda, and post pudfa obviously.
The short interest did not move on the news either as the fool implies, but other than those issues the article was basically a restatement of previously well known things.
PS. Revenue will lead share price, patience, revenue doubling for next couple years.
Just had a thought. If the program is right 80% of the time, it must be the 20% of the time that forces the poster to live on a yahwho board, lol. I would bet Warren BUFFET would pay a FEW BILLION to buy this program from this Yawho denizen, only wrong 20% of the time, SELL the program to the highest bidder, lol.
I have a bridge to nowhere to sell yah, I guarantee 99.9% of the time, taking the bridge gets you nowhere, I also guarantee not finding the bride 100% of the time.
OK just having fun poking fun at the mentally constipated which is not really nice. They do invite this type thing, I mean, pointing out an OUTRAGEOUSLY unbelievable bunch of noise sometimes can not be helped.
OH, OH, WAIT, He could sell it to ACKMAN, NEVER mind, he has it already, he picks the 20% side TOO, lol.
The " PROGRAM " they use is " RIGHT " 80% of the time, LOL
some make is utilizing the UNDO function TO peek at a previously deleted/ignored post. If you make a ton of mistakes I get the need for an undo function. We put a person on ignore, then put their name in the subject line, really??? They R in your head when you do that, and typing their NAME puts them even deeper.
So as I like to say, when visiting an eye sore as this has degraded to, use the IGNORE function a LOT, then NO sneak peeking, thinking you were wrong using the function, or OH forbid missed a buy, buy, buy, or sell, sell, sell.
Uncles is free to join, but though an OPEN forum, it is monitored and has an enforced for board policy. To date only 3 posters have been asked to leave umm, booted off. Not sure who exactly, but as I said, it is public W/ a private twist. So GOOGLE uncletizz, an excellent research website. Ideas other than Opko are discussed in threads, investment ideas bandied, and the nimble pick up on good companies making better returns for joining.
PS. price will follow revenue, ssh, tell the person next to you, they might make a buck too.
Rubin exercised on May 5, and sold enough to cover his INCOME TAXES, the filing on the 5th had the numbers wrong, what is shown TODAY is just a restatement correcting a graphic error.
I agree, INSIDERS should OWN ONLY ONE stock that of their own company, THAT is why I hate GATES for DIVERSIFYING his holdings out of MSFT. In fact every inside that ever sold a share should be fired for not putting my interests first and foremost.
Think about it, what a nerve those insiders have wanting to own more than a diversified portfolio of ONE. Glad I am NOT an insider, I can own 50 stocks and no one questions my motives when I lighten up here and go heavy there.
PS. Price WILL follow revenue, ssh, patience.
Word is he wanted to buy his wife a new BMW i80, the sale of the options did not quite cover it, only 120k, he had to dip into savings for the rest. You people SLAY me, every insider on the planet SELLS options like they were RADIO active, and when some guy at Opko picks up a FEW bucks spending money IT is A mystery. He still has over $3m in shares, so he is buying a car, get over it.
Green, metallic, special order. Nice ride. Then again am sure you all knew that. LOL.
Sad sad stat,e an utter waste of time.
Share price will ULTIMATELY follow revenue, that is ALL you need to know.
The rest here is noise, signifying nothing, umm, but a short circuit, umm, feed back loop. What do they say, doing they same thing over and over expecting a different result is a sure sign of Damaged brain cells?
Guess that's not it, but spending 24 7 here, umm, posting up or down, LOL. One tear swells, get a real job, one with the hope of snapping the insanity.
Sector is getting clobbered, shorts with better insight UMM, KNOWLEDGE were on VRX GILD, and REGN, and BLUE a company with a phase 1 or 2. The YAK YAK is OPK has been destroyed, fact is the entire bio sector has been crushed Amgen and Opko are doing well, opko is beating AMGN ytd, but only by a % or so.
It is all about THE SECTOR, do not listen to the yak, IF they knew what they were talking about, they WOULD NOT live here dancing over a few percentage point dip when VRX is down 75%, BIIB 14%, wile Opko is relatively flat for the year,oops, down under 5%, does not even cover their margin expense.
They can yak about earnings too, Opko CRUSHED on revenue, and still beat on earnings, and would have been .02 positive with out a one time charge. Opko is up better than half the time POST earnings. This time, no, but NEITHER was SBUX who had very good earnings. Fact market is trashing bad EARNINGS by a TON and trashing GOOD earnings a LITTLE, Trashing BAD HARD EVERY time, TRASHING GOOD 3/4 of the time.
This market wants to tank, I REALLY wish the DANG thing would crater a few thousand points, I have my shopping list ready. When they get GILD to a P/S = to a steel company, umm, I might be a buyer. That is the type inane rhetoric being spewed by the savvy group here. You know, those having trouble paying their margin premium, but were afraid to bet against YACKMAN and VRX, umm.
Addicted to OPKO, TYING UP THEIR cash for pennies, while the ENTIRE SECTOR CRATERED. Live on the OPK board, miss the STX crash, Appl crash wmb crash, but you got your .05 ytd. GOOD CALL.
VRX, umm, NOT TOO late, might have .05 downside left??? Might go to low teens? HMMM.
CL, not sure which theory gets the prize, lol, the Dr. Frost theory, or the mouse theory, I do know the mouse theory is far more believable, I mean, they have even made cartoons about it proving it as fact. SO, WELL, there is that, betting SOME missed that point when criticizing the mouse theory. Some people, just DO not get IT.
Not sure why I am responding to this, but I too have a theory, that theory is that Swiss Cheese has a ton of holes. The thing is my theory can be, sort of, maybe be, you know, backed up by fact, or simple observation. Now some Swiss Cheese might have no holes, or very small holes, have not looked at every piece of cheese to verify this fact. It is well known that those holes are likely caused by mice, small, small mice, they need to eat too.
Well that is my theory and though it has holes in it, and it is about holes in theories, IT DOES not HOLD a candle to your theory, in fact it pales in comparison to the point that it may need be revised. My new theory is that Swiss Cheese will likely never have holes in it again. All those holes have been usurped by A Dr. Frost controlling PRICE theory, the mice wept loudly upon hearing this news, WELL,in theory they wept, I did not back that up with one fact either.
This is my theory, and I am sticking to it.
PS. Price will follow revenue, eps, will too.
It is all about perception. Not one thing to do with facts. If Opko struck a similar or far worse deal with GILD, MRK, Amgn, the stock would rocket. The fact they struck a deal with a PARTNER far SUPERIOR to those companies in the CKD area somewhat gets a YAWN cause the new partner is not a household name. They are as formidable in ckd as gild is in HIV but not many know who or what they do.
Thing too, Opk is set up for explosive growth, but fact is, the TWO biggest drivers, the RAY international revenue and PFE deal, where we get to own 1/2 of the PFE HGH franchise, is still at best 18 months off.
Once both of those franchises kick in, generating revenue in the 500-600 million range, at no expense, not only does revenue explode up, but eps takes a HUGE leap.
Some one was pointing out various companies and market caps to point to opk's being fairly priced or over priced? Comparing a steel stock with 10% growth, to a med stock doubling revenue y/y but with steady q/q growth that planes at 15% then jumps 200%, then plans, then jumps up again is NOT apples to apples, more like a raisin to a water mellon if GROWTH maters.
Price will ultimately follow revenue. Eps. will follow revenue too.
that could have been a tad better. One time charges knocked .03 off earnings, pushing a .01 positive number to the wrong side of the number line. STILL, MASSIVE ORGANIC revenue growth.
Think about last q revenue at 279m with a 15m bonus from TSRO. Subtract that bonus out for a second you get = 264m. So 264m was pure revenue last Q, 291 ( this Q ) -264 = 27m Q/Q revenue growth. Solid 10.22%+ q/q growth, and firing on all cylinders. Those who do not think this 10%+ is all that good, annualize it. I will take 40% annual growth, year in year out. The best part is, that 40% number umm, is LIKELY TOO low. Figure 1 and 1/2 quarters of Rayaldee sales, 4k up take doubling and like Emeril Lagasse, BAM, BAM !!!!we can kick it up a NOTCH.
Last year 2015, full year revenue was, 294m, we JUST DID 291m in ONE Q !!!!! 3m short of 2015 annual revenue. Talk about revenue growth. Talk about A brilliant deal buying over a BILLION in revenue for ninety cents on the dollar. Pay 900m, get 1BILLION in sales, built in sales force, built in revenue growth. Dr. Frost,
DANG, you are the man.
So there you have it, my annual pump Opko spiel.
OH, Share price WILL follow revenue.
Hiding behind door number one, two or three is the Medicare reimbursement number. They have stated they are happy with what insurers are paying, but that medicare number WILL add a ton of clarity. Everyone is ASSUMING 600, but that might be low. Current 4k revenue at 600 would be about 19m annual, thing is, uptake has doubled since FEB. Love to see that double three-four more times this year kicking in 80m-100m would be huge. Dr. Frost DID say at the AUA meeting THEY WERE SWAMPED. Funny too, a year ago people walked RIGHT by their booth, get in the guidelines, get 200 people selling it, you become the lady with a full dance card. Standing room only, wait in line, no pushing, we will have a sales rep there on Tues, Next.
Yes, that's right, 4k, Yes we are the only lab, no problem, Weds. work for you? OK, see you then, lol.
Thanks CL, Ferryman was dead on too, he called 288, I put in the shout box and here 290, so we got lucky, umm got it right. Did you notice the tiny tiny charge on the NOTES, those paper charges have been a thorn to eps. I thought it would be a positive EPS. .02-.08. Without the Options expense, ANOTHER one of those hidden things, they would have made .01. Opko is right there, right on the CUSP of positive eps. Thing too, this 50m they are getting, NO WAY to know if they take it in one Q, or spread it out like they are DOING with the PFE revenue. Point is, is that 50m tacked on next Q, or 5m over 10 quarters. They do not make it simple do they. THING is, I think they DO have a choice, and they can pick option A or B. The annual revenue estimate IS NOW TOO low, so is EPS. estimates. See if we get an upgrade From icky Oppenheimer. I would do one of these, OOPS, oh sorry we lost that call,lol. Next, yes Ladenburg, your question?
Ferryman, we need get jobs estimating revenues, we did better than every analyst.