Interesting but in a normal day, minus the robo poster this board would have NO MORE than 4-5 threads with people contributing long or short to those five threads. Well that is how it was in the past. Funny is how Lakeweed points to THIS particular BOARD as proof opko is a trash company, yet there is a fair chance it is his robo employee, or I would guess it is. In fact without ROBO this board is used little, many do not post here at all because of the abuse. So if he indeed is enjoying a vacation until the 26TH, good for him, this will go back to a sane little used M board as before.
He really went on vacation, OMG, not even a thumbs down in 3.54 minutes. He must be on way to airport.
Vix U R right on every count and he indeed said free, and lease. The money is in the tests, the first half dozen cover cost of machine. The KICKER is the PSA test. ANYONE EVER goes to a urologist they send you right out for that test. The second in that stable is testosterone, both due soon. Like you said, if they get a portion of urologists, the rest will follow. I believe they said a 20-30 person sales force could penetrate 80% of market, the rest will phone in and BEG to get hooked up.
It is like this, opko is only 40 m in revenue shy of sustaining profits if we ignore derivatives. Citicoline at 10M sales, and 4k at 10M sales gets OPKO there. Any increased sales and u get the picture. Opko is at the inflection point where revenue is poised to start growing exponentially with new product launches each year for 4. Opko showing a profit might not surprise every one, just those who have not looked at the holdings within each division. Like Israel API facility has 10 new products being launched, doubt many have even glanced at their pipeline, or give them a second thought. Not glamorous, not a phase 3 study, just some lab developing and selling ingredients, but doubling sales and potential. Maybe only 5 million in sales but doubling, then doubling again. Ignored by ALL. It is but one of roughly 10-12 facilities where research and new products will trickle in adding revenue from assets the street ignores.
Yes but though some might figure the push to profitability was from the extra options cash, the major driver to losses has been paper derivative losses. If the derivatives swing the other way as they did in q 2, which drove profits, OPKO might show a positive 15-20 million, while the derivatives sale was only 11m.
On the options Frost and Jane BOUGHT 6,577,500 Frost, 4,729,000 Jane, + 11,306,500 total, add to that 22 M SRNE, 1.5M optos, 22M organic, = revenue no less than 56.8 million, THAT GETS OPKO PROFITABLE. The noise will be it was options infusion, not organic but opko will LIKELY show a profit. Another answer to a DEADWOOD bash, opko will never be profitable, Frost making a statement buying those options now, lol.
Arby, that is an interesting point, hmmm, do you know how much cash infusion the options were? Add that to SRNE sale, plus organic 22 million revenue, OPKO might hit eps. positive but again based on derivatives swing. Plus they get 1.5 million from opto as final payment for optics division this Q. Next q earnings report could be interesting. Figure Citicoline sales MIGHT have begun and even if small 2-3 million, that could tip the teeter totter to eps. positive.
I like seeing cash especially with 3 phase 3 studies on going. THOSE tripled expenses, and have a few years to go. As far as the 1-14 conference, I have no clue, HOWEVER, interim phase three data on 4k is likely, with possibly Rayaldy too. It is anyone's guess if/when Frost buys another company, but I doubt there are many phase 3 ready out there to get. The Rayaldy deal was the type of deal that does not pop up often, and the type of product most might over look.
I figure I just reported faster, most share holders would do that basic research right away. Part of stock ownership, and why short noise never phases me, have to look at the NUTS and BOLTS of the plane or DO NOT get on board.
After looking over the smaller sales in late Nov, OPKO still owned just shy of 2.2 million shares, so it appears this was a private sale based on recent srne volume. It also appears the BULK of the 22 million opko reported was from this single sale as SRNE was in the 10 range the past couple days. Not 100% sure where this 22 million goes on the INCOME statement but likely other income or on the derivatives line. The RXII transaction went on other income line, that said the net profit on this is 20 million.
This should easily push 2013 to the 120 million number for well over 100% revenue growth, we were there before this sale. Last Q loss was in the 35 million range with about 20 million of that a change in derivatives. Opko could actually show break even to .01-.02 profit if the derivative pendulum swings back. The 12.5 gain on the RXII sale of assets put us at a .03 loss, so break even is not off the table.
Opko earnings report gets skewed positive and negative from the derivative write downs. Depending on the derivative moves they could even show a profit, at that point the shorts will point to the derivatives, but as this past Q, where it was a major portion of losses, it gets ignored.
I have two questions on the sale of srne. First OPKO had been selling small pieces for months, is this just the final sale? OR was this a single sale for 22 million??? Also not sure how this gets accounted for on the next 10Q, it will show on an appropriate line, revenue, change in assets, etc., but it should impact EPS., in some manner. Might even push them to EPS positive.
Happy Holidays, yes just watched the dvr on MAD MOOLA, yep Cramer said buy. Did he say there has been a raid over in Israel, lol, GUESS the DEADWOOD fund SA garbage might not have been the only issue, but I guess Cramer NEVER NOTICED BOZZO, and SA.
Until the results are made public we can only speculate. We do not know if NWBO does or does not increase the volume of the attack either. Stating or thinking that is based on faith that it does. DNDN had more than just dendritic cells, there were also B cells and NK calls, with phase 3 showing 4 month increase in OS overall survival.
The real issue is the relatively small patient population NWBO had in phase one. Though the numbers appear great, the test population was so small that it could have just as easily been a random chance occurrence. Imuc had near identical results in a small population in their first study too, but with the larger study a different more telling result. The larger population minimizes the chance of a " random chance occurrence. "
So all we can do is wait, this is a win big lose most stock. The trial results is all that matters, while we all have opinions the real answer will get here sooner or later. There is an outside chance that DC direct is a vaccine that can prevent cancer from ever occurring, designing a study to prove it, not SO easy.
I think by mid 2015 you will be happy happy that you own this one ads, short term not so much. With this pipeline, and their partners, it is a good risk/reward investment. Like I stated else where, I am not so much banking on Arry, or their management, but on the heavy hitting partners pouring millions into ARRY phase studies. They will abandon a phase 2 in a NY minute, for several to go phase 3, ODDS are on our side. Patience here is everything.
Me too my TA is gut feeling and dart board method, but I see one gap at 11.00, lol, oops. Usually a Cup and handle forms over a few weeks/months not days.