Not sure but puma ( pbyi up 287% ) on her1, her2 inhibitor drug and Arry Mek drugs might have a similar mechanism aimed at shutting down cell growth mechanism. Someone with a better medical background than I have might clarify. I believe one of our mek drugs had similar results in phase 2 for at least one indication though most phase 3 studies here are a year or two from completion.
Under the terms of the agreement OPKO is eligible for payments of up to $121 million, including an up-front payment and additional payments based upon achievement of specified regulatory and commercialization milestones; and will receive double digit tiered-royalties on sales. TESARO and OPKO will share future profits from the commercialization of licensed products in Japan and OPKO will have an option to market the products in Latin America.
Last q when they reported their losses stock ended up for the week about .30, go figure, lol. Seems if you look at the past 12 quarters you will notice the stock trades up a quarter, down a quarter or no change. Might be no one is expecting a positive earnings number for a few more quarters, so losing a .10-.30 is inconsequential. The average range on earnings is roughly up/down .25 with an average more eod roughly .12/ plus or minus, but good luck with your short.
Not really, Opko hit 8 new all time highs in 15 sessions, it ran from 8.88 to 12.95, shorts piled on all the way until it broke through 10.00, and then they spiked it to 12.95. Most longs who missed buying during those 15 sessions got in around current levels or way lower than 8.88-12.95. I am sure a few like Frost added above 8.88 at that time, but my bet is the lions share of the move was that 7.5m drop in short interest. So those saying it will head to 14-18 likely had a cost basis nearer 5.50-8.50, 12.95 would have appeared as it was, an unsustainable spike, squeeze. Next time if it gets to 12.95 on news, it can run past it, but on a no news short squeeze, umm, not yet. Give it about 4 more months and we will see.
You are certainly using your own words, not mine. Why would anyone buy on what was an obvious short squeeze. If Opko bases for a few months be it 8.00, or 14.00, and looks to go higher then you add. Not on 27 Million volume over two days spiking the stock 3.00, you might, most INVESTORS knew what was up. Investors, those with a two three year time frame are not likely to buy on a spike, shorts can get forced to. That is exactly what happened. Longs were not, oh boy, up 3 bucks, let's jump in now.
Has nothing to do with outrageous, or perceived value, fact of what happened is easy to verify. It was a 4.00 short cover period, over a two week window, with a three day finale. There are shares holders in the 9.00-10.00 range NOW, back then in Oct, not many/none, shorts selling to shorts and all covering in a few days spiked the stock. Longs WERE NOT piling in at 12.95, or 12.84. As soon as Opko hit 10.00 ( A NEW HIGH ) 40Million shorts were ALL BURNT, they limited losses is ALL, in a few days. Pushing Opko from 9.97 ( new high ) to 10.50, ( new high ) to 12.84 ( new high ) to 12.95 ( new high ) in a couple days as short number plummeted.
This fact is why once Opko gets above 11.00 again there will be little resistance, there were not too many shares bought, just shorts licking their bleeding wounds. Also without the windfall Prolar dilution there will once again be no shares to short, ouch, double ouch.
Keep in mind, it might have been WAY more than 7.5 million shorts who were taken to the cleaners covering above 11.00-12.95, that is only the total at the end of period. With 33 million shares trading over that three day window, can you say ouch. More likely 20million 5.50 shorts got stopped or margin called, oh yah, Yes OUCH.
Yes they did, lost tons on their 5.50 short, ouch, ouch.
Any guesses? Was it under 3 minutes? Stock shooting from 9.97 to 12.84 like a rocket at the close, could happen again. Taking out the 10, 11, and 12 stop losses. Over crowded short position. First to cover wins.
8.26 to 12.95, all short covering, cannot cover without spiking the stock, they know it, we know it. Opko up in down market today, AIB shows 150k spiked to 350K shares, a 200k cover on only 800k volume. Over crowded position.
Well, most of us got the short term moves right, but not longer term 4-5 week move. Still looks like 5.40 is next support. No one wanted to hear that on June 19th, but without positive news, 5.40 looks inevitable.
Following the short interest, keep in mind, every 2-3m cover right now has moved the stock over 1.00-1.50, tenuous overcrowded position, and no way out. The plan, cover on no news, on down days, but the plan is not going to work all that well, patience, buy HOLD, is the best plan here. Next time shorts cover 10% of their position, 5m shares, Opko runs about 2.00, about 10.50.
Following the short interest and chart is telling. Oct 1, 2013 35M, short, Oct 15, 40m short, Oct 31 32.7m short, big squeeze to 12.95 from 8.26, ouch. Sine Oct 31st, 18 million pile on bringing the number short to a new high, 51 m, the stock is trading flat under all that weight, 8.62 up slightly from 8.26, ouch, talk about futility. The 7.5 million cover spiked opko over 4.00, the next cover will be telling. Oh, the Prolar ammo is gone, shares available to short 100k, shot their load spiking it, and piling on to get Opko back to about even. Next short cover will be interesting, but if more than 7.5m, umm, might be more than 4.00 next time.
Actually it was the shorts covering 7.5M shares in a couple days that did it. The funds waited for the short panic to subside and added cheaper. 8.26-12.95 was not longs, or Frost pushing the stock, it was a manipulated short squeeze taking out stops to cover at 10,11, and 12, ouch. Someone claims the funds could not prevent a slide back down from 12.95, lol, pathetic losing shorts spiked it there in the first place.
Y/Y revenue growth up over 100%, gross profit up over 300%, there is the chance to exit this year profitable as R&D should drop by 50% as we complete our second phase 3 study. Matter of time, if not this year, next is a given. 4k launching in South America shortly, then Europe, Russia, etc., roll out will be slow, but steady. Rolapitant sales, Rayaldy, vitamin D test, testosterone test all coming to a Drs. office near you, and around the world.
The Prolar shareholders received roughly 50 million shares, diluting the float. Opko at the time of the deal had NO SHARES to short. Of that 50 million 20 million or so went to Opko insiders, shorts have taken positions with as many of the remaining shares as possible when they became available. The then available shares to short went from 20 million at the time of the Prolar deal to a current 100K, the ammo is gone, and they know it. They had no choice but to keep shorting, in at 4-5.00, opko in the 11-12 range, no choice.
If you Chart the share price and notice each 3m, 5m decrease in short interest, the stock moves up .70-1.50, shorts cannot cover without forcing share price up 10-20%. When they have covered, there is new ammo for new shorts. When they add the 3M-5M back to the short interest they push opk down 5-8%. In a tug of war they are holding up ok, but getting close to falling in the mud.
Shorts are trapped, bag holders of an unenviable position. Sure the small fry with his 1k shares can get out easy, those with large positions are stuck. Every 3m, 5m, cover runs Opko to the 9.50-10.00, and as high as 12.95.
As Frost, Soros and the like keep adding, the short position, the trapped position, becomes more tenuous. At a point in time, the 3M-5M cover will not move the stock 10-20%, but 20-30%, or more.
That is why the constant need to bash here. In the long run the noise here is pointless, the bashing or pumping pointless, the bag holder shorts are being forced to hold their position. Every attempt to cover runs the stock because the LONGS are not selling. Granted there are the traders, and those shares to toy with, creating gyrations, and funds do jockey shares around, but I am talking how do you cover 10m, of 50m, when 3m spikes the stock. Shorts are bagholders, many do not even know it yet.
Not familiar with it, so will look at it. It appears it will not compete with Rayaldee at a glance, but might be used in addition to rayaldy/ee. There are several new drugs in the CKD area, see Uncles site, article dated July 10, NEPHROLOGISTS REPORT HIGH INTEREST OPKO HEALTH’S RAYALDEE CAPSULES, the Amgen drug is on that list.
100k, took a few weeks to suck up the short float, but it is about gone. Market weak not helping here, but two news items due over next 6 weeks, Rayaldy/ee successful phase 3, and Rolapitant NDA might snap this malaise.
Long term everything on target and progressing according DFP's plan.
Y/Y revenue growth hit the 100% plus mark, gross profit grew 300%. R&D rose over 250% but should drop significantly this Q and next. If revenue continues at this growth rate, up 10% q/q, but likely to ramp up again, and R&D gets cut by 22M roughly 50%, Opko has a fair shot at profitability by eoy.
Cash position dropped 29m, but is up 36m since last June, enough cash, 156m to last until ( mid 2016 ) or Rayaldy/ee launch, or until Dr Frost sells himself another 100M in notes.
Completed phase 3, 4k
Completed phase 3, Rolapitant
Near complete Rayaldy, by Sept.
Matter of time, EOY 2016 opk 28-30, Revenue 800m-1B, min. 2014 revenue growth might not do 100% again but expecting 50%, to roughly 140m.. Opko near break even 2014, should exit year with roughly 110m cash on hand or better. 2015 Rolapitant revenue, 4k should get rolling, vitamin D test revenue, psa revenue, all on track.