Cognate supposedly has other customers from what I understand. Cognate has received shares in NWBO instead of cash. NOW, the REAL question is this: Cognate initially could not sell the shares, they were locked up for X months. At what point can Linda and Cognate start selling shares??? That is the real QUESTION. So though we do not see Linda selling shares and milking NWBO for money, SHE could be doing it through COGNATE as soon as the lock up expires. Cognate/Linda could be dumping daily AND WE will never know. THAT is the trap door that has many skeptical with NWBO, Cognate and Linda are one and the same, there could be massive selling by Linda and it never hits form 4.
The lock up time line was mentioned in various filings, those interested to see if Cognate and LINDA could be milking NWBO can hunt it down. The payments to COGNATE have been at a discount to market, so some downside protection to cognate and Linda.
Part of the pain is margin calls, I expected some short covering for this bounce back to 4's, think it gets over 4.10 shortly
3.90, next downside target, but 3.50 is right behind that. Needs hold one of these lines, could bounce back to 4's in next half hour, watch, it will happen.
"Patients with NRAS mutations have no targeted treatment available and prognosis is poor," said Reinhard Dummer, M.D., University of Zurich Hospital, Zurich, Switzerland. "These data reinforce our view that binimetinib is an important new potential treatment option for these patients and I look forward to seeing the results from the ongoing Phase 3 NEMO trial to validate these findings."
Results from the 117 patient Phase 2 study showed median progression free survival (mPFS) of 3.6 months and objective response rate (ORR) of 14.5%, including one patient who achieved a complete response. These findings were consistent with previously disclosed interim results at the American Society of Clinical Oncology 2012 annual meeting. In addition, the median overall survival (mOS) of 12.2 months is encouraging for this patient population, which has a particularly poor prognosis. NEMO, a global phase 3 trial currently enrolling patients with NRAS mutant melanoma, is designed to measure the difference in PFS between patients treated with binimetinib versus those treated with dacarbazine, a current standard of care.
So what might appear discouraging to some, patients with no treatment will take any drug that extends PFS, or MOF,
There are over 50 phase 2 and phase 3 studies being done on arry drugs. They need only one or two to work out and arry gets to 1.5B easily, likely 3B. Might take another 18 months, but I think it happens. Hopium, lol.
Next stop is 3.90-3.98 range, market can turn up tomorrow. AA kicks off earnings today, if good, relief rally. So nwbo broke every downside support, next level is 4.00, 3.90, then 3.50. If market is up tomorrow Nwbo runs up too. So it is at the true breaking point, can truly go either way, but will move with market. So if you want to gamble, buy here with a 4.00 stop.
Has not been this low since June 2012, they are spanking it. Well, hope is not an investing strategy, but that is about the thesis here if down. Arry can go lower for sure, positive news is still months off. Pain threshold test, in full force, greed threshold too, every share short is now profitable, every buyer since June 2012 is down.
Think market turns up Tomorrow, the hope thesis...., hoping AA has good earnings and market responds in a broad positive way.
If market stays weak, 3 range by end of week could happen. Hope Alcoa has good earnings after the close, kick off to earnings season, could give market a lift, getting nwbo back into the 4.80-4.90 range.
Every seller is selling at a loss, or a short position pressing to get every penny. Of course not sure how the ATM works, but hope it gets turned off at these levels. I own enough arry, so I will not add, will not sell, will wait on Novartis news, or Astra news to make a decision to either lighten up, or hold because future looks better.
Back to November 2012 levels. So figure the pipeline has progressed from NO phase 3 studies
near ng completion, to two due in under 6 months. This is the best buy price in almost two years if you can handle the uncertainty of waiting on phase studies. I am surprised at the weakness with the potential of getting mek 156 back from Novartis. It is either Serious manipulation, or someone knows more than the rest of us. Either case is quite possible, we have to rely on Ron, where big funds can spend millions hunting down non public news.
I am holding, Down a little over a buck, so not too devastating.
No, and will rely on Uncle to relay the news. IT has to pass in congress, BUT it is a bipartisan proposal, so both parties can take credit. After passing they have to assemble the commission, then examine existing prostate tests. I am guessing 6 months to a year, but it is a guess. My point is if they pick 4k, which is likely, over other tests, the sales ramp to the billions. Figure this way, there are about 25 million psa tests each year. If it is determined 4k should replace the psa test, 25m x 295.00, if Opko keeps the 295 price. That is roughly 7.3 billion in sales. IT COULD happen. This is not in the short thesis, but has a decent chance of happening by mid 2015.
Should we bank on it happening? Well it does have to pass congress. The commission if formed then needs pick 4k over other tests. I do think 4k is the best, will they? It creates the potential if things go right for OPKO to become a MAJOR diagnostic FORCE in under a year. If picked this will get Opko well over 30, lol.
If this NPCC proposed by Boxer-Sessions is formed. Look at the moves last year in health care based on Obama care. Legislation can REALLY put a fire under a stock, or sector. 4k will be recommended as standard procedure if/when the NPCC gets formed and has time to look at the various tests. The goal of the NPCC is to reduce biopsies, while reducing prostate deaths through improved testing. Those that are minimizing the impact of the NPCC on potential Opko revenue, ummm, not thinking paradigm shift. PSA will give way to 4k, and biopsy will not be performed without 4k. Part of the GOAL of the NPCC is to save money by reducing biopsies, while at the same time getting treatment to those who likely need it.
Now if this bipartisan bill is not passed, well, 4k will snail along, but gain traction over time. The NPCC formation creates an opportunity for 4k to be the standard test over night. This should not be ignored by longs or shorts, and following the progress of this bill is part of DD.
Wrong, Ceo's, and that includes Frost can NOT lend out their shares. There are roughly 30million shares in retail hands though, that if YANKED from the loan program could initiate a squeeze. Now funds always lend their shares, but there were few available all last week, until they upped the payout to retail. It is indeed shooting oneself in the foot.
My point is if you join the program your shares are used to drive price down, though you are long, your position is net short. Frost buys daily to absorb available shares to short, and his fans are adding fuel for what, 10%. If these shares were sold out right, and removed from the " available short shares " the net effect is zero, some shorts will get their shares called. If 10-15 million share owners called their brokers and exited the program, opko would move to 14-15 in short order. Every 3m cover moves it .75-1.00.
ALL at once would be interesting but hard to orchestrate. Shorts were out of ammo, until all those intelligent longs lent their shares out. Availability went from 5k-8k, to 400K the day after the brokers upped the payout. Of course that is only Aib, so availability at all firms jumped.
If you are in the program you get your 10%, but are net short, your shares were sold to hammer share price, YOU do have an IOU for your shares. The better move is just sell your shares, or remove them from the short program. You gave permission to have them sold anyway, so just do it outright, it helps the short position either way. Hopefully if you just sell them they land in account were a long will not lend them but hold them in a ira, or non margin account. That helps the share price, rather than work against Frost, work with him.
I cannot remember the guys name, but HIS story was he took out a second to buy nwbo hoping to pay off both loans about 3.00 higher.
Frost has had a knack for getting ahead of the curve ( generics, long acting drugs )
4k, which appeared several years before significant revenue, congress will mandate, watch.
A long acting prohormone, Rayaldee, will likely be standard of care.
He might be older, but he has 20/20 when it comes to future med. trends.
He somehow sees the dang trend and has managed to position companies to lead for decades.
Yes, follow the genius, the billions were not a goal, the result of clear thinking, of genius.
works, not only for the patients, but hate seeing people get ruined by the market. I have known people to lose everything in the past, margins and shorting can bankrupt an individual.
3.7 billion, as of 10/01/2014. So yes he can buy 1-2 million a week for 50 years, even if each share never goes up. He could also buy the balance of the company he does not own with cash.
Truth is he barely touches his old money, he spends current earnings and dividend proceeds to buy shares.
If you ever see him selling his Teva position, that is notice he is taking Opko private. He will need liquidate other holdings to take Opko private, a given, but look at it this way, he just donated his Zebra holding to Opko.
So doubt he takes it private this year, but nice to see him hand free assets to Opko.
Now if anything did happen to Dr, Frost before he hands the company over to Jane, Expect Opko to be bought out by the Frost estate, with earnings generated to fund start up biotechs.