2015 and 2016. The info I used was from yahoo estimates. ALL FIRMS, well, both of those who gave estimates have yanked those estimates. As mentioned yesterday they did not include the two near 400m cash injections. My thought is as soon as they figure out which " LINES " this money hits, and if it does hit eps., not just cash on hand, we get a 14-15 price target. Might take two weeks, but we will get an upgrade, INMHO, eps. line projections could go from neg to positive, GS a recent buyer will take note.
OK, GS read this, give opk an upgrade, thanks. We have no impact, but I am trying, lol.
I have not seen it, but there is a nice booklet they give to the Dr., burgundy cover which can be seen at the opko/diagnostics web site.
Yes, you are likely 100% correct, but the bottom line is there will be 325 million extra cash on hand this year, and 355 million next year. I am not an accountant, hoping one would let me know which lines on the income and balance sheet statements this money will hit. I know two spots, cash and cash equivalent line, and the bottom line. Regardless where it is placed by rules, fact is there will be 4 substantial cash deposits in the opk bank account, far out weighing the cash paid out. They might NOT be able to put it on the eps. line, but accounting rules aside, Opko turns profitable.
Might not seem it but I included it, it is part of the 125 million organic revenue. The analysts recently raised 2015 revenue estimates to an average 136m, 2 analysts, one at 117m one at 155m, current year 90m, growth rate estimated at 51%. I went between their number picking 125 the old estimate. They are not including the one time payments obviously, but I am. In the past sale of assets has been part of opk's revenue, so I am looking at that way. Regardless, Opko turns profitable in 2015 as soon as the PFE deal is approved.
Twice in 2015 they get a revenue spike, pfe and tsro, then again in 2016, but by then they will have RAYALDEE TOO. 1B 2016 looks easier and easier. 270 million pfe, better part of 85 million tsro = 355m only leaves 645 million for diagnostic sales, tsro royalties and rayaldee sales plus organic revenue from pharma, ie, Spain, Israel, Mexico, etc.,
Instead of red thumbing, explain if I was Too high or too low estimating 250 million as 2015 expenses, or if eps. of .50 is too high or low based on your calculation. RED thumbing does not help your cause or position or mine. Explaining to me what I missed would benefit everyone. That might take looking at a 10Q so I guess a red thumb is the extent of your research.
at different sales marks. Opko retained South America, and can sell the drug there.
2015 tsro and pfe payments will be 30 million, plus 295 million pfe = 325 million, plus 125 million minimum organic revenue. The question is how profitable will this 450 million revenue Get opko to be???
Not less than 200 million in profit is my take. EPS. Near .50 cents a share.
Not too bad for a worthless pipeline, from a loss per year to a profit, 2015 will be fine, 2016 better.
Figure 295 million cash coming shortly, with 270 owed,
cash on hand 100m + 295 + 5 m from Tsro, = 400 million cash
milestones from tsro 100m+, owed 270m an additional 370m
Total cash coming in or owed or on hand = 770 million.
If opko traded in the 13-14 range, or got upgraded to that range, would that be out of line based on 670 million in milestone payments before organic revenue 100m? This will break down to 400 million cash infusion in 2015, and 2016.
This revenue is not pie in the sky, it is OWED NOW, so it is real. Add in increasing organic growth from blood tests, Rolapitant profit sharing, and Rayaldee Approval and sales, Not sure why there has not been an upgrade by a major to the mid teens. It will happen.
If Opko traded at 14-15 I might consider that fair based on the 375 million revenue from tsro and pfe, plus the 100m organic min total 475m, 2015. I am usually the lowball price target, but think that price is closer to value than 10-12.
Not many. The Rolapitant deal gave opk a 10% stake, Opk sold 9% of that position a couple years ago. So shares is roughly 1% of outstanding.
Fact is, they need retail to sell cause retail holds a disproportionate number of shares. That is why the paid bashers on this board. Do THE NUMBERS. Subtract out insiders, and funds, what you see is there are over 15 million shares that they can not find if covering is forced. Also note, if you subtract out insider shares from the float, the percent short goes way up. SEE, they cannot short insider shares, so the short % is counted against the float, but half the float is insiders. So double the short % of float based on that and it becomes clear why suckin lives here.
Just getting started. On Dec 10, prior to the short fund hit piece opk closed at 11.50, We should get back to that range in time. Little resistance between 10.25 and 11.50. See 5-6 upside resistance levels 10.25 which was only hit twice in a year, then 11.14, 11.40, 11.65, 12.95, then none. Getting through 10.25 is job one, THE NDA for Rayaldee announcement next week could do it.
Miami, how R u today? This deal with pfe is over half a billion huge. Changes everything at Opko. They will figure it out in time.
Five Hundred and Seventy million DOLLARS from PFE is such an event. Shorts can hang tough, and double down, but there WILL BE a second Singular Transformative event, bet on it. There are no life jackets on this over crowded boat, the first to jump ship might get out fine, the rest, well, same fate as passengers and crew of that unsinkable ship that hit an iceberg. 570 million at current cash burn rate is 15 years of cash on hand, but am sure the Ceo will use the cash to DRIVE even greater returns.
Just a thought, but when things change FUNDAMENTALLY at a company, ONE needs rethink OLD no LONGER plausible strategies, or notions.
Long, the time to short ended with the MASSIVE CASH infusion.
Should be a good year, opko loves green.
Yes the 2 year price move is 92.04%, I anticipate the next two year move to be even bigger, say, roughly double the last two year move, about 200% move, in to the 28-32 range. 10.25 is a stepping stone on a number line, will appear a bargain by eoy 2016. Figure Three new drugs, Rolapitant, Rayaldee, and HGH for adults by then, 4-5 blood tests, Claros launch, insurance approvals ALL around, guideline inclusions, etc., 1.2-1.5B in revenue. 2015, only a 15.50% move, so yes, a rough year, but better than the S&P, AGAIN.
What a travesty, people selling below 30 dollars, today, someone sold their shares at 8.81, not good, well unless it was a short. Then it is good, real good.
Doubt guy owns up, but I remember. Another brilliant call, better short than cgix.
Opko today announced that senior management will present at the 33rd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Tuesday, January 13, 2015 at 4:00 PM PT. Next Tues. after close, expect NDA ( Rayaldee )announcement, and 4k South American launch update.