The rip van winkle approach, you all can check the charts for time lines, BUT will bring this back in 2016 expecting 30. I think at this point of the original post my position was up from 3.70 to about 4.70, but was dead money and being raided by the shorts. I know this much, my first buy was 4.57, and my last 3.47. Opko was 3% of my portfolio then, and is 10% now, not bad.
Just presenting facts, I picked opko before Cramer or the Motley Fool ever heard of them. I put down my OWN money not theirs, so my picking opko and staying long regardless of noise is all that matters to me. I am convinced by 2016 OPKO is at 30 or maybe higher, have not seen one thing to change that, MF, Cramer, etc., OPKO does have to start rolling out product. THE REST will be history including single digits, long and the patience of Job.
On the pharmaceutical side, OPKO has five drugs in late-stage development.
A phase 3 trial testing Rayaldy in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism with chronic kidney disease and vitamin D insufficiency is scheduled to read out in the middle of this year. OPKO worked out a special protocol assessment with the FDA before the trial began, so if the results are positive, an approval toward the end of 2015 or early 2016 seems likely.
OPKO's most advanced drug, Rolapitant, is licensed to Tesaro (NASDAQ: TSRO ) . Rolapitant, which treats nausea and vomiting associated with chemotherapy and surgical operations, has already passed two phase 3 trials. A third trial is expected to read out early this year, putting Tesaro on target to submit a marketing application in the middle of this year.
Finally Tesaro has a basket of investments in nine different biotechs, including its partner, Tesaro. As Phillip Frost, OPKO's Chairman and CEO put it, the company likes to have "fingers in many pies."
The only problem is that can be very messy, figuratively and literally.
A Foolish challenge
From what I heard on the webcast, OPKO isn't my cup of tea. With so much going on, it's very difficult to determine a fair value for the company. If you like companies with multiple shots on goal, I encourage you to listen to the webcast; there's even more going on at the company than I was able to cover here.
If you note, he likes the company, but, he has trouble valuing it. That is part of the DILEMMA and benefit of being a holding company. Opko is set up as a holding company and even the divisions are set up to be spun off in time, pharma, diagnostics, biotech, and even an investment arm. Opko holds many of Frosts personal investments but with partial ownership in them,ie rights to market drugs.
It's an easy way to get introduced to a company you're thinking of putting on your watchlist. After all of the news-driven presentations are done, each year, I try to go back and listen to at least one presentation by a company I haven't followed closely.
This year's pick? OPKO Health (NYSE: OPK ) .
I'm not sure how OPKO Health has managed to fly under my radar considering how much the biotech has going on. The company is developing a diagnostic platform, has a pipeline of drugs, and has made quite a few equity investments in other biotechs.
On the diagnostic side, OPKO is developing its Claros immunoassay that would allow doctors to do laboratory testing in-house. The tabletop-sized machine reads a sample on a card and can potentially perform up to 10 tests off one sample.
While doing the tests in the office should be more convenient for patients, the big driver for sales will come from doctor's ability to make more money. If the tests can provide results that are as accurate as the ones done by Laboratory Corporation of America (NYSE: LH ) or Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX ) , doctors can bill insurers directly for the test and pocket the difference. The Claros isn't going to put Laboratory Corp. or Quest out of business, but it could take a small chunk of some of their routine tests.
OPKO is also developing a separate test called the 4Kscore to determine patient's risk of developing prostate cancer. A whopping 60% of prostate biopsies are negative. If the 4Kscore can predict which of those biopsies will be negative, they won't have to be performed, producing a compelling value proposition. OPKO estimates eliminating the unnecessary biopsies could save about $1 billion a year, which insurers would presumably be willing to pay to OPKO to run the 4Kscore tests considering a blood test is substantially less invasive than a biopsy.
It is in yahoo finance, they never state opk is their number one pick, they do state they are surprised it went under their radar, and that there are several nice catalysts. By they state I mean the author of the article, it was not a piece by Tom or Dave, lol.
She quietly picks up shares every year on DIPS, I say quietly because Frost gets the headlines but she owns over 21 million direct plus 5 or so more million in her trust. Did any one notice the sec filing where it shows she has an interest in the shares held by Frost Gamma an extra 15 million? Found that interesting cause it appears she and Frost jointly own that 15 million shares somehow.
Many have been here longer than I have but I have been here since March 2011. Opko could not get on track all of 2011, 2012, and is having a similar rough stretch. 2011-2012 stuck in a 3.00-5.00 range, and had serious short attacks then too. This attack will end as products launch, and revenue kicks in. I am banking on 2016 if Opko does 10-20% of potential sales = 1 billion. PATIENCE.
There is little the company can really say. The phase 3 studies are on going, it is RARE to give updates on a study in progress. Some companies build in mid term updates but that would have to been built in. As far as England goes, the roll out was slow, it had NO insurance coverage. Keep in mind those Drs. make their LIVING doing those biopsies so 4k WILL take money out of their pocket. As Uncle posted, it has been recommended to the EU NHS to do away with biopsies and rely on 4k. That decision is 5 months away, but even if they do not back 4k instead of biopsy, the hope is NHS covers the test.
The problem with the stock was precipitated by that LW article. Though few funds initially paid attention to them, after the SA article, and Subsequent price drop, the resulting chart, etc., retail and other funds joined in. EVERY time OPK gains a little uptick or strength it is getting hit with sell at market orders to slap it down. It is being thoroughly manipulated beyond anyone's wildest imagination. There is no news anticipated until late March, OPKO cannot just do PR after PR based on air.
The items in opko's pipeline are not sexy, or OMg items, simple blood tests, simple Vit D drug, no cancer cures, etc., these items are stealth ignored over looked block busters that most laugh at as insignificant. They will be WAY bigger than most think and catch many off guard. The 2016 time frame will see over 1 billion in revenue here and no less than 30 dollars per share. BY the WAY, the new shorts are stuck, but can keep hitting the bid, but not many shares available to cover, and shrinking daily. Does not help current price movement or weakness but in time they will have to cover as products hit, it will be painful then. Right now they are giddy drooling over unrealized paper gains that could easily vanish as the last two BULL raids pushed OPko to a LOFTY 12.95 and 8 million shorts got stopped out.
They basically repost from company presentations but is nice to have several companies in one spot. Those dates are all approximates based on a companies most recent conference call, and the estimates given at that time.
In this study I get the FDA cannot allow it to have an arm that is NOT standard of care, ie., radiation, plus chemo. That is the BIGGEST confounding variable in the study and IS mandated by God FDA. What I do not know is that at the hospital in Cologne where Dendritic cell therapy has shown a 48% longer survival rate were those TOXIC standards also used. I think not, but their inclusion in the NWBO study could hurt not help and confound the study if the results from cologne are valid. An arm, even if small, 20 subjects, might add clarity and lead to abandonment of some chem, and, omg, radiation.
Yes they will report shrinkage of tumors, but not 60 times. I studied to be a research designer in college, and was near the top of my class in that field of study. That said, I was not designing biopharma studies but rats in a maze, or reaction time studies, dyslexia studies, etc.. Design is design however, minimizing compounding variables, and controlling variables, size of population, how stats will be used etc., science is science. I stated Not ONE THING Linda did not state in her two presentations, I also have a grasp of English, as a first language. Too many listen and hear with the NOTION, OMG, NWBO going to 300. It may, but, results per Lind are 2015 at earliest.
So IF you R LONG??? and understand that term, get a lounge chair, you have a two three year wait, well unless NWBO gets stopped 2-3 years early on partial data, not happening, BUT I am LONG.
Read the 13F, part of proceeds to be used for Rolapitant so by extension, to cover an Opko milestone which gets reached upon NDA, I think that is the First. All milestones were posted here before, but I think first is only in the 10 m range but Too lazy to go hunt it down.
get NO SPECIFICS, and NEITHER will Northwest. ALL the interim results will say is CONTINUE the study, or stop the study for good or ill. I can hear all the chatter NOW, they said nothing, we want DATA, we want facts, how is the PFS, OS, etc., well it is not part of the process. All parties STAY blind to the hard DATA numbers. To think LINDA has privy to this data and that is why she did the already planned manufacturing deal is off target, and wishful thinking.
The direct phase1/2 study will have KNOWN data. It is a two year study, started in June last year when the first subject was treated. We will likely get data when info on the first group of patients is known. Could be any day to as far away as April/May. 60 subjects so they will not release data on each person, but as data on say 20% 12 patients is known. Data on 2,3,4,5 patients is useless, but 20% might point in a direction.
I learned MORE about NWBO by reading an article written by smith on stocks entitled Northwest Biotherapeutics: A Critique of Adam Feuerstein of TheStreet’s Recent Analysis
I suggest you read it, google it, you will learn a lot about NWBO.
This conference was a scientific conference attended mostly by those who design phase studies. Though investors and funds could and might have attended, it was about sharing scientific approach. NWBO had a speaker who discussed the design of one of our studies, that is all. No reason to expect NEWS releases from this. At best our GUY came away with a new idea or two for the next phase study, but it was not a presentation to hype results, talk about results, or get headlines.
Afford, you R on A message board, No one KNOWS or can answer to your satisfaction, so JUST sell, that solves your dilemma. From my perspective, NWBO would be out of business before they ever did one phase study without the deal Linda made with Cognate. The deal was Cognate do all the manufacturing and we will pay nothing, because if we have to pay you we cannot do our research. WHY would COGNATE do that? Cause Powers said AS major owner of both companies I need you COGNATE to work on an IOU basis. GET IT. NWBO would not be here without Cognate, NWBO could NEVER afford one brick let alone buying buildings. At a certain point in time Cognate worked out a stock deal for monies owed and future work based on a THANK YOU for not bankrupting NWBO and doing the work for free for years status. NWBO has to also pay a portion in cash NOW that they HAVE a FEW pennies, so the stock does not cover all the costs, but COGNATE has kept NWBO AFLOAT for YEARS and some PEOPLE are like, ARE we diluting too much, paying too much. MUTUAL FUNDS all around.
NWBO is either going to zero, or 100, you have better odds than lotto, equal to Vegas. Know it, invest that way.
8.6% of the volume yesterday was Frost removing shares. So close to 10 shares of each 100 gone. The PBTH deal took a No shares available to short situation, to opening up a window. There were about 63 million shares in that deal, but only about 33 million not owned by Frost an affiliates. Many of those 33 million are easily accounted for, about 10 million to funds, the balance shorted to average out losses. Two bull raids last year pushed Opko to 12.95 creating a great opportunity to double down on underwater shorts. In the process the chart is in a downward pattern created by these manipulations, for the purpose of these manipulations. Should be illegal, but it isn't. The timing of the Short raid was perfectly designed and timed to 1.) create the current chart, 2.) double down underwater position, 3.) gain the support from other hedge funds who earlier ignored them, 4.) create panic and distrust in the minds of gullible retail. The SERIOUS big money shorts are now profitable. Frost knows all this and bought 8.5 shares out of each 100 traded yesterday, a small statement. Opko cannot speed up product launches, the timelines are test result constrained, but time is on the side of the longs.