should be out next week. No guarantee on that, I could not FIND a solid release date but the best I can figure last year the release date appears to have been March 19. In the most recent earnings CC it was stated the NCCN guidelines should be out in Q1, 2015, so that leaves 2.5 weeks. Rayaldee NDA is also anticipated in this same 2.5 week time frame. These events may or may not pop the stock, no telling how baked in they are, but the info has been out there for a few months. Still good news, and I really do not care if it pops the stock, just nice seeing opk holding steady in a new trading range building a nice base.
We are completing the calculation of the data sets from all three trials and will proceed to submit the NDA as soon as possible expected later this month. We presented topline Phase 3 data on Rayaldee last November in a late breaking clinical presentation during the annual meeting of the American Society of Nephrology. We will present more detailed data in a second late breaking clinical presentation at the end of this week in San Diego during the annual meeting of the Endocrine Society.
So on March 2, it was estimated they would have all the data calculations set by today, so if they are a tad late as it appears, doubt the delay will be long. This was 4 weeks and 2 days ago so if there was another issue they should have known by then. On march 6th they presented the 12 month data at the endo 2015 conference, then additional data on March 27 at the nfk conference.
It has been two weeks since you announced the note conversion, so do the filing or maybe restate a new filing date. We need something positive to discuss here at Yahoo Central. This lack of news is deafening.
Every one has heard the phrase buy the rumor sell the news. When you buy the rumor, the news gets baked in, so when the news hits, you many times get a drop. Is this not a known?
Many expecting a sell the news play, might short on up days heading into the news, as noted, short interest inched up 2m recently.
An anomaly happens in this scenario when the sell the news never materializes. In that situation when the stock inches up, or fails to drop, it is prudent to cover. Guess much of today's action is the short the rumor group, being forced to cover on the news, well one explanation, but am sure there are many.
We certainly have been bombarded here with the cake group, ie., Rayaldee news is BAKED in. Guess not all of it, I think the shorts are putting Frost-ing on this cake, UMMM, pun intended.
Just a thought on Eirgen, they have the EXPERTISE to gets the filings done in the 40 countries they now serve and have gone through those hurdles before. Eirgen will HAVE to be the one to manufacture Rayaldee for those countries because their facility is certified to do so. Think they will help on the filings outside the US, it is their strong suit. The Eirgen acquisition appears very timely. Hope it gets mentioned Wed.
and Alzheimer's disease. Not a cure, but in preclinical studies has shown promise. Opk has had the right to sr-3306 for a couple years now, but has not been in a position to start human studies. This is one I have patiently been waiting on. With the cash infusion from pfe, and the further advances in preclinical studies, might be getting sooner than later. This will take years to bring to market, but could be huge. Halting a disease from causing further damage is not a cure, but if a treatment can halt progression, early diagnosis is the issue that will determine quality of life. So far only animal studies, but the fact the drug penetrates the blood brain barrier, and is able to hit it's intended targets in animals is promising.
This has been on the back burner at opk, hope they make a move to develop it soon, or just sell their rights to someone who can bring this to market faster.
near 20 million shares, either open market or through exercising options, BETTING that is more than 98% of the ceo's in the country. Slow down in buying? Frost slows down on big buys, goes weeks/months with no buys, but ultimately believes in himself, and his company, and buys more. Longs know the poster whom I am referencing, he spews nonsense, fact is I doubt anyone can find a ceo who backs up his mouth as Frost has Since Jan 1 2015 with 20m shares picked up and none sold.
feeling giddy. Stock splits, heading to 20-22 by Friday, up after hours, rsi no problems, Frost not buying in three days, must be buy out, etc, etc.etc. Get a grip, every % move is only a point on the number line. Goes down three days world is not going to end either. If perchance opk hits another new high tomorrow, 5 in a row, that ties the old record of 5 in a row. 4 to this point ain't shabby either. Note, today the volume did decline even though we did hit a new high. NEED the volume to head back up or we start basing here. That 5th high in a row, umm, the tough one. Odds are we get a small pull back, but I want to see that 5th high,
The good news is maybe some of the fantasy about buy outs and stock splits might subside. Hint, that is not going to happen, lol.
new closing high, also a new milestone. What is different between these two bull runs? In the first run back in Jan, the daily average range was at most .40, the biggest gain .51, but most about .25. This new run the average range is .70,, this range is 75% bigger. THINK about that.
Why would a stock that traded in a daily range of 40-50 all of a sudden have a range on two occasions over 1.00 in a 7 day span? Average just over .70 for the first time ever?
There is one obvious answer why the stock hits 5 new highs, and the daily range more than doubles. BUYERS want in, and now, and there are very few sellers, or big enough blocks of available short shares to stop the move.
Do not be shocked if we trade flat, or up a few pennies tomorrow. Weaker hands are gone, whoever this group of buyers was/is, they have proven new high, no problem.
The only other choice is a short fund being forced to close shop, or this position, regardless of losses.
This move was different, there was a ton of CONVICTION.
Found it interesting that Opko Israel manufactures many of the raw components used by Eirgen in making their generic drugs. So Opko will be able to cut out the middleman and produce the drugs from start to finish boosting margins.
I also noted the stock portion of that deal, with this recent run, as of the close is up 7.7 million. Talk about perfect timing. Now that gives true meaning to the phrase, " the Luck of the Irish."
buyout at over 100 premium. Sad, sad, to say the least. Ok, I said my prayer, but doubt it will help the poor guy that lost everything, wife, kids, house, on his 10k share short gamble.
Though shorts obviously are impacting the move think about that for a second. When did the move start, and why did it start? If you figure that out you will know why opk has legs.
I will help. First this move started May 6, Opk has only had one down day since May 6th, and that day it dropped .01.
WHY, WHY? WHY the 6th. IVAX. YES IVAX. That might seem a strange disjointed answer. What was IVAX? A generic player Frost developed and sold, correct.
EIRGEN, is a generic company founded by former IVAX employees. FROST is reentering generics. Since this news was announced on the 5th, Opko has been up 9 of 10 days, one down day a penny.
Then add to that new opk angle, the revenue beat, which trumped the eps. miss, and the firmed up time lines, the possibility that Eirgen's Saudi partner has upped their opk stake, shorts and fund buying, and here we are.
Up 9 of 10 days, biggest pull back since we bought a generic company, .01.
So when the run stops, we base, then run on NDA. Mark this.
Yes, sad but true, under $1.00, so many misguided posts. Well over 10 years to get 4k to market, cassette/cartridge cost under a dollar, vs. an item in preclinical that might hit the market in several years, but does have too many false positives, so it is not the answer. Back to the drawing board.
To date, 4k is the only simple blood draw that mirrors biopsy results at over 95% accuracy. YES, the margins are that big, but then there are expenses, Dr. fees, etc that cut into this margin. SO SAD to see some think this is in direct competition to 4k, though by 2025 it might be if they can fix the accuracy issue.
This info might have been posted here already, I am not going to sort through all the noise to go look. At any rate, the webcast can be found at opk, investor relations. Public service announcement for those too busy posting to check the opk news release page.
So all shorts are underwater, all longs profitable. Do we get a 1-2% pull back, or do we hit another new high? Fact is no one knows, all have their own preference based on long or short position. Many times these moves continue on day three early if margin calls kick in and can extend an additional day or two of upside. A 9.58% loss might be too much for some shorts to handle, the high volume today says some capitulation. This same 9.58% move might be too temping for short term swing traders to ignore, so this might get us a slight pull back.
Tomorrow could be interesting.
Shorts were counting their money before the bank opened based on the eps. miss. So what happened?
The key take away I got was the massive spike in the cash position. SOLID dates on 4k reimbursement, solid dates on Rayaldee NDA, SOLID dates on Rolapitant approval. ALL future revenue generators that could LEND tail winds to more new highs. The two kickers in the call were first, the REVENUE beat, 7m, a BIG BEAT, second the discussion about Ergin, which will FURTHER enhance revenues. If they hold steady, no increase from 4k insurance, Mexico and Spain stay soft, revenue will grow Y/y by 40%. This 40% growth also does not take into account royalties or milestone payments from Tesaro. SO 40% Y/y growth is obviously VERY low.
So do we go higher tomorrow? There are good reasons we could. Do we take a pause on profit taking? Both are equally likely. That said the wind is at our back, opko might not be that tug boat, as Miami suggests, but a sail boat catching an updraft.
Love those red thumbs, I guess the post hit home if it was even red, oops, I mean read. Obviously my red thumbed friends would rather not undertake a serious discussion about the post, but I get it.
at 150m. Figure q1, 30m, so if that holds steady, that is 120m, add in three quarters of Eirgen revenues, 30m, gets Opk to 150m. This is before any organic growth from 4k insurance. 2014 sales were 91m, if opk gets to 150m in 2015 that will be 65% revenue growth from a 91m base.
Opk was up .17, after a revenue beat, some said it would not hold. Tuesday day 2, opk up .51, total 2 day gain .68, noway it holds, no way 3 up days. Wednesday, opko up .86, after someone said, day's 1 and two gains would not hold. Someone who claims longs are idiots for predicting what opk will do hypocritically kept PREDICTING a fall. Day 4, Opko can not keep going up off this excellent earnings report we were all told this. Day 4 opko runs up 1.01, noway. NOT POSSIBLE.
The predictor said day one-day 4 would not hold. 4 day's up a total 2.55. No pull back yet, ouch predictor, guy who knows the future, where do they find guys like this, always saying what opko will do, predicting the future based on NOTHING. Day 5, ummm, we will see, hehe, but the spin might be can't hold 17, like the same lame noise about not holding 15.
Y/Y revenue growth I PREDICT will be north of 50%, based on umm, facts.
“What we’re looking at is overlaying a layer of products in a similar kind of area to ourselves, these high-potency products, coming through the Opko pipeline.
“The difference being that the majority of products we develop at the moment are actually generic products whereas quite a number of the products coming through the Opko pipeline are actually new chemical entities, new products.
“So that’s exciting and quite different from what we’ve been doing. And the other part is that they already have in their portfolio of companies a company that makes the active raw materials that we use in our products, and there’s the potential there for vertical integration, with the raw material coming from their site in Israel, into the Waterford site for manufacture and distribution into the market,” Carney says.
Old all time high 18.29, new all time high, 18.42 a .71% move. Percent short shares under water. 99.999999%, figured buster and Bryan nailed the 18.42 high today and dollar averaged their short. That is why only 99.999999% shares short are underwater, not 100%, I took into account their 10 shares each.