Merrimack, think what you will, I figure things this way. It takes phase 1 to phase 3 about 10-12 years. From my understanding astra did a mek deal in 2003, and 12 years later a phase 3 missed. Arry is on track. Gild took a decade too, not that arry is gild. finally, if you short arry, never short more than 50% against the box. Too heavily owned.
As Cramer said, 6 phase 3 studies, so no one got HUNG. Traders trade, investors buy, hold and wait on known catalysts. With no less than 5, arry is a SOLID hold for an investor. If one phase three pans out, arry gets wings, teen angel in 2016-2018 time frame. From 5 to 13-15, umm average rate of return about 55% by 2016-2017 time frame. The bulk of share holders, umm 100% fund owned, are all up 10-40% waiting on the phase studies. Retail players, well, umm, if they know their game are up too, but most not likely. Shorts? The funds own 100%, you will be sent to the alter, in due course.
Not so sure Beckman test is superior. It picks up both benign and malignant cancers, does not discriminate. So where does that leave the patient and Dr. in the decision making process? Nowhere. As a stand alone test it still leads to countless unnecessary biopsies. So if a dre, and psa indicate a possible biopsy, 4k gives you a yes or no to perform, Bechman gives a yes only. 4k made the test obsolete in my opinion.
So just a note, brli 2016 revenue is estimated 1.02B and combined opk/brli at 1.3, so that leaves opk with it's current drivers, 4k, rolapitant, rayaldee, etc picking up an additional 160m above current revenue. So at this point the analysts think Rayaldee, 4k, rolapitant will only generate 160m, That is why I think 1.3B 2016 is low. I expect Rayaldee to do 300m in first 6 months. We will see in a year and a few months.
Any opinion I give would be a guess. It is all up to the mutual funds, and index funds, some that own both might need sell one or the other just prior to deal to keep weighting in an index where it needs be. They might wait until day of deal too. Other funds not exposed to either might buy based on the combined revenue potential, but are waiting on closing or brli share holders. In the grand scheme, opko will exit 2016 profitable with the deal, and Rayaldy, and Rolapitant revenues kicking in. So ignore the noise, Opko is range bound short term, but will be higher 60-90 days post closing.
Figure this way, Opko's expected revenue this year was 120m Max prior to Brli deal, NOW it is estimated at 433m, and 2016 at 1.3B, and that could be too low. My Guess is NO Rayaldee sales are in that 1.3B number, so it could be 1.6-2B if it gains share.
I still think opko can get to 30 as we exit 2016, 4k, Rolapitant, Rayaldee, PFE drug, 4-5 other in house lab on chip offerings, and brli has also grown revenue at 10% or better so all things point up.
Last q broke that pattern, opko missed badly on eps. and went up .50, the biggest move in either direction on earnings. The miss was an .18 miss, one of their largest misses ever, and the stock spiked up, and started a run from 14 to 19, go figure. The revenue was a big revenue beat, by about 6 million.
This Q they raised eps. and revenue a lot higher. Last q eps. estimate was .- .08, the came in at - .26, so now they want -.05, Opko has been better than -.05 once, maybe twice, so they are asking a lot. The kicker though is they expect opk to add almost 14m in revenue, a huge huge jump. From 30m, to 44m.
Can they do that much rev? Well last Q there were issues in Spain and Mexico, they were off 5m, add that back, and in 2-3m from Ireland, and we need pick up 5-6m else where. Why it might be possible is if you go to opko lab, and put in a zip code for 4k Dr location you will see 15 nearest locations. Example is there were none in Rhode Island last month, now a few. None or one in New Hampshire last month now several.
They also took out the No insurance coverage notice.
In the past 4 years opko barely moved on earnings, 40 cent range, big move a .25, averaged .095. Last Q that changed big time, up .50 on a big miss, but big rev beat.
The big news will be insurance reimbursement, how much will the insurers pay for 4k, and uptake on the test.
Everything else will be filler.
So the bar is set high 44m revenue, and .06 loss. Could miss both, or meet/beat on revenue but doubt they beat the .06.
When a poster makes up a lie, it has to be a good lie for anyone to believe it. A fabrication that is in stark opposition to sec rules is easy to spot. Carl after filing his form 3 became an insider and now owns 11% of the common. He can not short it, he can not hedge it without sec issues. He can not sell it while his board is discussing or contemplating a divi cut, and if/when he does, he has the standard 48/72 hours to report his buys and sells on form 4. So dwerth, I will now put you in the ignore bin, but first let me say I bet your parents taught you better. No, not to be better at lying, but that lying is wrong.
Yes 26m is a drop in the bucket to Carl, but 26 million is still 26 million. Carl counted his millions on his way to billions, so it is still worth noting. If he starts selling, yikes, lol.
Yes that was his annual chk dividend, and he said, keep the cash, pay off debt with it. Not sure how many on the board were Carl picked, but think the ceo was his choice.
These two recent decisions will cover 43.5% of chk's bond debt through 2018, what is not to like? If we include the recent court case this move still covers 36% of all known court and notes through 2018.
2018. 240 million in common dividends saved, plus 75m preferred = 315 million annual,
2016 bond 500m about 1/2 covered
2017 bonds 1b +- about 1/3 covered
2018 bond 668m about 1/2 covered
This move though it hurt the common holder, and those who depend on dividends, it creates a ton of financial flexibility. 315 million retained earnings can go straight toward debt reduction, or to drilling. I hope they use this cash for debt reduction or to retire more preferred shares, which after this initial move will still drain near 100m in preferred dividends.
This recent court ruling forced their hand in my opinion, 438m payout to fix the bond issue, well they just got 315 million to offset that ruling and mitigate future bond payments.
Wall, every post, you lose credibility, you sound so desperate. If you care that chk could dive to 2,3,4, and recovers to 30 some day, you should not be in stocks. I am long, if chk went out of business tomorrow, it would be a blip in my portfolio, but still bother me for a day or two. There will be no announcement, shorts are in control, you are not. I am long too, but only 2.5% in chk, umm, bk tomorrow means little to me or Carl, he is out less than you are, percentage wise. Just checked, Carl in BK would be out 6% of his net, myself, 2.5%.
nas market data. Nas: 60 new highs, 102 new lows, nyse: 46 new highs, 245 new lows, Amex: ZERO new highs, 24 new lows. Guess where the new lows are? Energy, metals, mining, and mlp's. Not all, but the hardest hit is energy.
Throwing the baby out with the bath water, if you are an oil or gas stock, the big money is shorting, and rotating out to consumer goods, and staples, and financials.
EIA talk, buyout talk, fist pumping will not stop the rotation. The new low list points to a serious correction sooner than later, and energy is the lead short candidate. I only have about 5% in energy, about 2.5% in chk, so will ride the down trend, I am heavy banks and bio, but wishing I had more cash, but will not sell my financial or bio positions to catch an unknown bottom in oil. I can afford to wait this out.
So those short chk, good luck, you are winning short term. When the sector heads up, and it will, first to cover, WINS. Chk is not down on chk specific items, but sector concerns, it will be fine. Enough cash and lines of credit for 2 years or so, far longer than you might stay solvent.
Shortage baked in? Most recent EIA numbers, if believable, show 2767 bcf up 653 bcf from last year, a 23.5% gain from last year at this time. So at this point, unless weather helps, or input slows faster, we will head into winter with more nat gas in storage than last year. I doubt inputs to storage drop fast enough over the next 90 days to shrink the current 23.5% beefed up storage levels.
I am long the stock, but it might take a year or so for things to get balanced out between supply and demand, lng exports will help, but have a minor impact.
Maybe break through 18.20 next week, not happening in last half hour. Last time we hit 18.20 late Dec., or early Jan the volume was weak, only in the 50-60m range, below average actually. This time the volume showed far more commitment double and triple the volume at the prior high. This might get legs if the market has a good week next week, and a few upgrades kick in. Upgrades to 20 might not help, but 22, well, maybe.
Just checked interactive brokers and available shares to short is down to 800k, that is why margin cost went up. That number was in the 10m range a few weeks back.
peer group. All others took out old highs, bac might join the club tomorrow, or next week, but as of today it is still the laggard.
Arby, when one looks up float on the net, you get a half dozen answers. Some back out fund owned shares, and insider owned shares, and say the remainder of issued shares is the " tradable float. " Other definitions and explanations claim all issued shares, non treasury shares, including insider and fund shares that CAN BE traded, however unlikely, is the float. We can all agree on one thing, Dr Frost's purchases reduces the tradable float, even if it does not impact the official float number. The only number that matters in my opinion is tradable float, and that number shrinks with each Dr. Frost purchase.