Lawdad, Opko is at this point bordering on late for the filing, so if you listen to the last cc, it is late. If you listen to the JPM cc it is due any day. Fact is a company NEEDS file it 100% correct, no backsies to change info, so they usually file a tad later than they first claim. I was sure last Fri or this Mon, so I am pushing it to Fri TOO.
Still showing ZERO bullets, tough situation to short more, but they can cover creating more, we will see in the next week or so. The issue is retail is actually in control, we own more than funds. I leave the dynamics of that for you to think on, but removing shares from the short program works for few stocks, IT SLAMS shorts if long opk.
I see this company as a buyout target, no clue where it will sell. More now than before the Novartis situation. Here is why: Arry 520 is ready for phase 3, 4 Novartis phase 3's, 3 astra phase 3's, plus 1 Arry phase 3. So 3 are partnered, 6 wholly owned or will be, total 9. Look at a company like PFE, they have 13 phase threes, BMY has about 20 phase 3's. Arry owned or partnered Phase 2 studies numbers some where around 50.
This is a BOLT on for any big pharma looking to beef up asthma, cardio, or oncology departments. Not sure when it happens, but do not think it is that far away either. 4B gives a price of roughly 30 dollars. Once they get one or two drugs approved the buyout price could be much higher.
I doubt they get bought prior to the NVS deal, but it could happen if they made a deal contingent on that one closing first. IT is not the 8 phase three, 1 phase 3 ready that makes them a target by itself. It is the fact Astra is paying for 3 of them, and Novartis 4 of them. An acquirer at worst can only lose the purchase price, the phase studies will cost close to nothing.
At the arry website Ron has this hokey interview, but the tell in the interview is how he compares arry to onyx, and how arry will have similar items to onyx when onyx was bought out. So I agree, Ron wants this CO. bought out, he will bring it to that point, then sell it. One year, two MAX.
As a side note, 70k shares available at interactive brokers at open today, ZERO by 2:00, no bullets.
watching every tick, will drive you crazy. If appl and ba were not up HUGE, the market would have been down another % or more. Relax.
It gives clarity that Arry will get the two drugs back, also puts Arry in the driver seat to sell international rights to the Braf inhibitor. It indeed does nothing for Arry today in terms of cash, etc., but it clears up the uncertainty that the EU was going to nix the deal.
It is a gamer changer for Arry's future if these 4 phase 3 studies pan out, BIG GAME changer. Basically it takes arry from a research company that basically licenses drugs for dimes on the dollar, to a FULL fledged oncology company with owned drugs.
A side note is it DOES make arry a very interesting buy out target. Keep in mind, Astra alone COULD owe arry over 1 billion in royalties and milestones. So any price paid for arry HAS to take into account that and the other license deals. Novartis was going to owe arry over 1 billion too in payments for JUST the mek-156, so I figure Arry is not over priced at these levels.
The closing of the three-part transaction with Novartis remains subject to certain other conditions described in GSK’s shareholder circular dated 20 November 2014, including remaining antitrust clearances. Subject to these conditions, the transaction is on track to complete during the first half of 2015. GSK Shareholder approval of the transaction was received on December 18, 2014.
I thought Rayaldee NDA would be no later than this week too, week is not over, but getting close. Originally NDA was May, then they said by EOY 2014, then said might be shortly after that time frame. So I figured Jan, sometime, only two days left. So new GUESS and that is all it is is between today and Fri, lol.
Thought they already preannounced that earning would be lousy. So can they meet lower numbers, or more importantly put a positive spin on the f150 sales going forward. Thinking they at least maintain 2015 guidance, strong dollar weak euro not a good formula but think US sales might be the big driver. So it can either run to 16, or fall back to 13, both could be buying opportunities, 16 might precede a breakout, 13 a dollar cost average situation for those in a tad higher.
This is a BS post but point I am making is OUR resident moron USED THE phrase travesty from 4, 5, 6, 7, IF opk EVER gets to a HARD 8, 9, 10,11, and Has been the board clown and he might be here IF my analysis is right, travesty, who paid 28.
That WILL be on this board in under or about 24 months. GOOD thing I save large BOXES for FRIENDS.
Correct, We might never know but PFE management could be doing a ton of buying for self directed accounts. Opko has been featured on Spanish TV in the past month, featuring 4k, the fund, people, or institutions have been buying since the pfe announcement. Opko will get to 25-30 by EOY 2016, this is the beginning of a multi year run.
My take is this, Arry will be bought out in under a year, no solid PT, but will not be a 4-5 dollar premium. I look at a phase 3 as a very valuable item, with 7, 3 drugs, 20 is not out of line. Your take is better over a 4-5 year span.
I think he telegraphed it FOR the VERY first time in the last earnings CC, I know I posted a GUESS that a partner deal was in the works, thought Asian partner for Rayaldee, the HGH deal likely only developed around last earnings, but you could be right too.
I too went to a Grateful Dead Concert best concert ever, however I cannot rember the YEAR, or how to spell remember, lol, so you are one up on me. About 1972, 73 I guess.
I have not taken the time to listen to it, BUT some GUY named Cramer stated it on his Mad Money show, so I will take his word on it, feeling too tired to go listen to verify the NEWS bite from Cramer.