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Dean Foods Company Message Board

burnaka 341 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: May 19, 2010
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  • No one cares. This board is meaningless, funds control ALL, U all are on ignore, but make INTELLIGENT conversation ummm, a tad tougher cause on occasiob I get stuck reading POOO

  • That same group brought it back down to this 11+ range, they have limited shares to mitigate losses. The BRLI deal, OMG, they think it saved their collective buttts, watch. I said before opk, ummm, after next earnings could be back to 18-22, we will see. Notice that ROLAPITANT approval is due, and will happen, kicks in about 50m rev in the next year, long, is prudent.

    Lakeweed, Rolapitant fails, = approval, near 1b market, over 100m to opk. Blindsided by HGH and PFE deal, yep poor research. Rayaldee? KICK LOWKNEES, and other misconceptions. 4k, standard care in 24 months, HELLOW,

    THE lights are on, but NO ONE's HOME, brain deads are not alone. They keep trying to exit, but every 10m exit raises opk at this pont about 7 points, sad position.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka 14 hours ago Flag

    There were also 4m brli shares short, they become opk shorted shares as of last Wed, that is 11m added to the 55.8m, they can not find but maybe 1/3 that number. If you follow short interest here, as short interest shrinks opk runs up sharply. shorted shares peaked at 52, and dropped to 40,, opk hit 19, now that short interest is back up over 55, opk dropped again. Each time they cover those 10-15m short shares opko hits a higher high. Will happen again.

  • Reply to

    one question for clarification

    by peterbui856 Aug 27, 2015 12:48 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 27, 2015 1:22 PM Flag

    Dr. Frosts big position goes back to when opko was first created by merging a few Frost shell companies which he owned a large position in. Options has been a %, but a small percent. He has been buying from day one.

    Dr.Frost has gone over a month with no buys several times, only once was a buy out in the works. Generally the stock does well when Dr. Frost is not buying because shorts start to figure there MIGHT be a deal in the works. This last time the news was out, and why he was not buying was known.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 27, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    If you are looking at yahoo estimates, notice in the current Q one analysts has not raised revenue numbers, appears the others have. One guy has revenue at 41m, which is a good estimate likely within 1-2m of what opko would have done without brli. Next Q all appear to have added the brli revenue. This Q, think we get 6 weeks of brli revenue, should be about 110 million, last Q brli did 223m, so I am figuring about 1/2, opk did 41m revenue, current q likely in the 150-160m range if it is indeed 6 weeks. Next Q dec., estimates average at 284million. which is likely too high by about 15m.

    Brli revenue q/q has goes up and down by as much as 20m, but up y/y, so predicting brli revenue is a guess, no way to ever nail it down. Last Q it was obvious the expected eps. and revenue for opk was out of line with reality. When they start baking in 20% q/q revenue growth when nothing knew is driving revenue, you know
    they are playing games.

    Think this: BRLI shows only one analyst giving a revenue and eps estimate, and the guy was off base 1/2 the time, we now have 4, 3 of which have never " guessed " at brli numbers before, not best situation.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 26, 2015 11:53 PM Flag

    k9, buy oils this year for a 2016 rebound. SLB is the top rated oil play and dropped to a 52 week low on deal announcement, a buy of cam or slb works out in time, as opk.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 26, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    Funny how that happens, stay short my friends, buyouts happen with no warning. Not HERE, NOT yet, but, stranger things have happened. You know, Bulls make money, bears make money sometimes anyway.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 26, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    PS. They lawyers are on the job on that one too, lol.

  • Rather than cover when CAM was down 80% or so, umm they hogs were piling on. You know, bears make money, ooops, not that time, " Slaughter House 5 " instead. Vonneget, Kurt or is it " Billy Pilgrim ".

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 26, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    Yes Chuck I agree. Nice to see the timeline spelled out, adds clarity for opko longs, lol, and shorts too. It is great for new BRLI holders who might have felt Opko bought nothing to the dance. Without Brli, Opko's future or projected revenue must have seemed appealing compared to the slow but steady growth ( 10% annual ) at brli.

    Opko down plays ie., basically never mentions preclinical items, mice studies, sheep, etc.. Dr. frost has stated in the past that many of those can not advance because finances need focus on late stage items, rather than spread limited resources over dozens of phase studies. As finances improve over the next year we can anticipate moving from animal trials to human safety trials on some of these unique higher risk higher reward items. Like Dravet syndrome med would be huge, but expensive undertaking that will likely get on line once we can afford it. The asthma drug too, we own a unique, advanced inhaler to pair with it.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 26, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    Notice too the pipeline drugs anticipate US and EU approvals, and some Japan, so global footprint will have a big hand in revenue as drugs clear respective regulators.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 26, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    PS. Note too that in the letter as they detail the status of each drug there is one thing common to near all. The commonality is the global scope, USA, SA, Europe, and Japan. These drugs are intended for export with global approvals anticipated, global orphan status, etc., already pending or done. It is easy to get a drug approved outside the US if the medical authorities there have given the GREEN ( pun ) light to phase studies as opposed to getting approval here, then asking. What happens in the later case is they can and do many times ask for further phase studies, or put you through hoops. Getting EU approval to market anything requires an EU approved facility too, we have Eirgen.

  • is the Claros device. As soon as the device is ready for prime time and approved they intend to develop many of the standard blood tests, and many on the brli proprietary tests focusing on men's and women's health.

    The letter was the most comprehensive overview of the pipeline to date, outlining synergies between opko diagnostics and brli's diagnostics, and guiding toward a profitable path. Currently the diagnostics division is the big revenue generator, with brli contributing about 87% of revenue. In a couple years, Opko biologics and Renal divisions will be the main driver of revenues. Looking over the timeline/pipeline it appears by mid/late 2017 brli will only be contributing about 25% of revenue with biologics and renal as the growth engine contributing 75%.

    So is Opko a diagnostics or a biotech company? Ummm, yes. Today diagnostics drives revenue, in a few short years diagnostics takes a back seat.

  • Reply to

    OT - question

    by wvwvwv12399 Aug 25, 2015 4:06 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 25, 2015 8:08 PM Flag

    Gone With The Wind, and another old time favorite the Wizard of OZ.

  • Reply to

    OT - question

    by wvwvwv12399 Aug 25, 2015 4:06 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 25, 2015 7:13 PM Flag

    Going back, how about The Sting?

  • Reply to

    Can someone advise

    by opkfactfinder Aug 25, 2015 5:35 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 25, 2015 7:04 PM Flag

    In the 10Q in the section titled consolidated balance sheet ( 2nd data set ) the last line lists the float. The catch is that number includes all options, and warrants, any share a note holder might buy. The total potential shares is also listed, for opk = 750M if every share were to be issued. Treasury stock, float, and free float.

    So from the 10Q, float = 462,253,161 to that add the BRLI shares appx 76.8m = 539,053,161m+ a tad.

    The significance of Frost owning so many shares should be obvious. First, those shares are counted in the float because they are indeed part of the float. Each Frost BUY shrinks what can be traded unless he sells. His share can not be borrowed to short or purchased to cover.

    Mutual funds do usually allow their shares to be borrowed.

    So figure out all insider shares, all fund shares and you can figure free float, or trading float in flipping accounts and retail longs. The catch is, no way to figure ALL options, and there are many shares in the hands of insiders that are employees. Eirgen ceo is not considered an insider but owns shares, ceo in Spain, Mexico etc., all own shares, etc.. and are not technically insiders, but might be bound by insider rules.

    With intense insider ownership covering a short position can be an issue if the free float is small. Easier to short than cover. They have run this up shrinking the short number, but were able to run it down by expanding it. When the short number shrinks, those shares are no available to be reused. The run to 19 saw short interest go from 50's to low 40's and now back in 50's. Brli gave them more ammo. I think SI comes in near 70, we will see.

  • Reply to

    OT - question

    by wvwvwv12399 Aug 25, 2015 4:06 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 25, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    Avatar. I also liked Gangs of NY but that is 12-13 years ago.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 25, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    6/30/2015 is a LONG LONG time ago.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 25, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    Last time he held a few long shares, but was a big net short. The long shares were a hedge because Frost owned so much of the float. Not sure of his position this time, he could easily be net short again, with another long position as a hedge. Well, that was how he explained the holdings when he did his SA attack.

  • Reply to

    O T /// ARRY

    by cl124cl Aug 21, 2015 3:48 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Aug 25, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    Ok, that 75m is the new ATM program they use to help fund operations.

DF
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