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Cisco Systems, Inc. Message Board

burnaka 419 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 23, 2015 12:03 PM Member since: May 19, 2010
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  • Reply to

    untold truth.....FACT

    by chkinsider Jul 23, 2015 11:36 AM burnaka Jul 23, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    chkinsider, ummm, when the pipeline is complete? How many weeks, months years for that to happen?

  • burnaka Jul 22, 2015 1:29 AM Flag

    When a poster makes up a lie, it has to be a good lie for anyone to believe it. A fabrication that is in stark opposition to sec rules is easy to spot. Carl after filing his form 3 became an insider and now owns 11% of the common. He can not short it, he can not hedge it without sec issues. He can not sell it while his board is discussing or contemplating a divi cut, and if/when he does, he has the standard 48/72 hours to report his buys and sells on form 4. So dwerth, I will now put you in the ignore bin, but first let me say I bet your parents taught you better. No, not to be better at lying, but that lying is wrong.

  • burnaka Jul 21, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    Yes 26m is a drop in the bucket to Carl, but 26 million is still 26 million. Carl counted his millions on his way to billions, so it is still worth noting. If he starts selling, yikes, lol.

  • Yes that was his annual chk dividend, and he said, keep the cash, pay off debt with it. Not sure how many on the board were Carl picked, but think the ceo was his choice.

  • burnaka Jul 21, 2015 6:56 PM Flag

    These two recent decisions will cover 43.5% of chk's bond debt through 2018, what is not to like? If we include the recent court case this move still covers 36% of all known court and notes through 2018.

  • 2018. 240 million in common dividends saved, plus 75m preferred = 315 million annual,

    2016 bond 500m about 1/2 covered
    2017 bonds 1b +- about 1/3 covered
    2018 bond 668m about 1/2 covered

    This move though it hurt the common holder, and those who depend on dividends, it creates a ton of financial flexibility. 315 million retained earnings can go straight toward debt reduction, or to drilling. I hope they use this cash for debt reduction or to retire more preferred shares, which after this initial move will still drain near 100m in preferred dividends.

    This recent court ruling forced their hand in my opinion, 438m payout to fix the bond issue, well they just got 315 million to offset that ruling and mitigate future bond payments.

  • That is straight from chk's silence..

  • Reply to

    You want news? I HAVE HUGE NEWS

    by wallpack1234 Jul 20, 2015 4:32 PM burnaka Jul 20, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    Wall, every post, you lose credibility, you sound so desperate. If you care that chk could dive to 2,3,4, and recovers to 30 some day, you should not be in stocks. I am long, if chk went out of business tomorrow, it would be a blip in my portfolio, but still bother me for a day or two. There will be no announcement, shorts are in control, you are not. I am long too, but only 2.5% in chk, umm, bk tomorrow means little to me or Carl, he is out less than you are, percentage wise. Just checked, Carl in BK would be out 6% of his net, myself, 2.5%.

  • nas market data. Nas: 60 new highs, 102 new lows, nyse: 46 new highs, 245 new lows, Amex: ZERO new highs, 24 new lows. Guess where the new lows are? Energy, metals, mining, and mlp's. Not all, but the hardest hit is energy.

    Throwing the baby out with the bath water, if you are an oil or gas stock, the big money is shorting, and rotating out to consumer goods, and staples, and financials.

    EIA talk, buyout talk, fist pumping will not stop the rotation. The new low list points to a serious correction sooner than later, and energy is the lead short candidate. I only have about 5% in energy, about 2.5% in chk, so will ride the down trend, I am heavy banks and bio, but wishing I had more cash, but will not sell my financial or bio positions to catch an unknown bottom in oil. I can afford to wait this out.

    So those short chk, good luck, you are winning short term. When the sector heads up, and it will, first to cover, WINS. Chk is not down on chk specific items, but sector concerns, it will be fine. Enough cash and lines of credit for 2 years or so, far longer than you might stay solvent.

  • Reply to

    Nat Gas up, OIl down

    by gwmortgage Jul 17, 2015 11:34 PM burnaka Jul 18, 2015 1:13 AM Flag

    Shortage baked in? Most recent EIA numbers, if believable, show 2767 bcf up 653 bcf from last year, a 23.5% gain from last year at this time. So at this point, unless weather helps, or input slows faster, we will head into winter with more nat gas in storage than last year. I doubt inputs to storage drop fast enough over the next 90 days to shrink the current 23.5% beefed up storage levels.

    I am long the stock, but it might take a year or so for things to get balanced out between supply and demand, lng exports will help, but have a minor impact.

  • Reply to

    BAC at 18.20 us

    by hoanguyenk25 Jul 17, 2015 1:23 PM burnaka Jul 17, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    Maybe break through 18.20 next week, not happening in last half hour. Last time we hit 18.20 late Dec., or early Jan the volume was weak, only in the 50-60m range, below average actually. This time the volume showed far more commitment double and triple the volume at the prior high. This might get legs if the market has a good week next week, and a few upgrades kick in. Upgrades to 20 might not help, but 22, well, maybe.

  • burnaka Jul 16, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    Just checked interactive brokers and available shares to short is down to 800k, that is why margin cost went up. That number was in the 10m range a few weeks back.

  • peer group. All others took out old highs, bac might join the club tomorrow, or next week, but as of today it is still the laggard.

  • Reply to

    Question for the numbers people

    by chuck_2_2000 Jul 13, 2015 10:18 AM burnaka Jul 13, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    Arby, when one looks up float on the net, you get a half dozen answers. Some back out fund owned shares, and insider owned shares, and say the remainder of issued shares is the " tradable float. " Other definitions and explanations claim all issued shares, non treasury shares, including insider and fund shares that CAN BE traded, however unlikely, is the float. We can all agree on one thing, Dr Frost's purchases reduces the tradable float, even if it does not impact the official float number. The only number that matters in my opinion is tradable float, and that number shrinks with each Dr. Frost purchase.

  • Reply to

    Question for the numbers people

    by chuck_2_2000 Jul 13, 2015 10:18 AM burnaka Jul 13, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    Chuck, I too pained over this same concept at one time, but once understood, it all makes sense. Opko has two types of shares, issued, ( float ) and Unissued
    ( treasury). Total shares = issued ( float ) and treasury ( unissued ). When Opko buys a company they take UNissued shares from treasury, and issue them increasing the float. Options and warrants are not float, so? Treasury shares. They are counted in total shares.

    Once issued, ( options exercised ) they move from treasury shares to issued
    ( float). As long as the insider can sell them in the open market they are float. So a warrant to buy at a future date, not yet issued, is not in the float, but counted in total shares company might one day issue into the float.

    So total shares = float, all options and warrants, and company owned shares that can be used to buy companies or satisfy warrants, options.

    Float = any issued share that can be bought or sold, including insiders, or the exec's of companies bought.

    Not sure how LOCK up periods work, say six month lock up? Not truly in float for six months, but issued, but not delivered. So an area I have not looked at.

  • Reply to

    OPK Percent Short = 73.4% of float

    by alerts_now Jul 13, 2015 9:23 AM burnaka Jul 13, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    Thanks Miami, was away on vacation for a while with no internet, umm, by design.

  • Reply to

    Question for the numbers people

    by chuck_2_2000 Jul 13, 2015 10:18 AM burnaka Jul 13, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    Warrents and options:

    These are instruments that give the holder a right to purchase more stock from the company's treasury. Every time one of these instruments is activated, the float and shares outstanding increase while the number of treasury stocks decrease. For example, suppose XYZ issues 100 warrants. If all these warrants are activated, then XYZ will have to sell 100 shares from its treasury to the warrant holders. Thus, by following the most recent example, where the number of outstanding shares is 350 and treasury shares total 650, exercising all the warrants would change the numbers to 450 and 550, respectively, and the float would increase to 300. This effect is known as dilution.

    Yes Chuck, cut the float number in half and that is close to the true float. Theoretically or in fact since Dr. Frost can sell if he wanted his shares are in the reported float number. Options and warrants not exercised are part of treasury shares, not the float.

  • Reply to

    Question for the numbers people

    by chuck_2_2000 Jul 13, 2015 10:18 AM burnaka Jul 13, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    So as you can see you asked a good question, as Ice and I see float differently, though we might be saying similar things in a different way.

  • Reply to

    Question for the numbers people

    by chuck_2_2000 Jul 13, 2015 10:18 AM burnaka Jul 13, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    Chuck, wiki invest? When Dr. Frost does open market buys it does not change the float number, but it takes shares out of circulation, so in that sense it shrinks actively traded shares. Brli deal increases float, options increases float. Example, if the float is 1m, and Dr. Frost buys all 1m, the float is still 1m, good luck getting one share though. The amount of shares available for trade or short is zero in this example. The more insiders take circulating shares and lock them up, the fewer left to cover, but the float number does not change.

  • Reply to

    OPK Percent Short = 73.4% of float

    by alerts_now Jul 13, 2015 9:23 AM burnaka Jul 13, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    Current shares short, as of 6/30 = 49,270,501. If we use yahoo float number, no telling accuracy, you get 20% as johnj93 states. If you figure half the float is insider owned, and out of the float, the 20% becomes 40%. Also funds own 65% of the available float, retail 35%. This 35% is a large number, and why it is a good idea to have shares unavailable to short by setting up the appropriate account.

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