KEEP in mind that Dr. Frost has a plan. A plan he stated in an Opko mission statement about 2013. Dr. Frost said HE WIlL ( OPKO ) create a national diagnostics company that is profitable, it WILL have a GLOBAL footprint. Those PROFITS will fund our biotech R&D and as we bring those items to market our company will grow. Nothing going on at OPKO is by random chance, and in fact the diagnostics does NOT HAVE to be wildly profitable, only profitable enough to FUND R&D, and it WILL be.
To the NEWBIE OPKO appears a little of this, a little of that, a dab of this and what the heck is it anyway? It is IN FACT a WELL thought out plan unfolding EXACTLY AS STATED years AGO, nothing random AT ALL.
Alternate sales channels were available? Not sure the point. Opko spent 900m, to invest in 1b revenue, and become profitable by that investment.
Instead of becoming profitable they could have BLED MILLIONS in cash to build a sales force from scratch, and DILUTED to do so with no immediate reurn on investment. BUT WAIT!!!!, they did have a 4k sales force but NOTHING to SHOW FOR IT. THEY did NOT JUST need a sales force, did they???
The sales force is a part of it, only half of it. THEY had no infrastructure to become a national player. BILLING, accounts Receivable, lab techs, regulatory staff, and so on and so forth. Sure there were alternate ways to do it at about 300m-400m to build a national network or invest 900m become profitable and have the third largest network tomorrow which is growing revenue at 20% historically, 15% recently and REDUCE your DEBT LEVEL.
I get your point, umm, think on it, weight your IDEA against Dr. Frost's action, not sure but thinking same dilution your way, but no revenue or profit.
to out perform, on June 25. Follow the revenue, they are anticipating additional revenue growth in light of the early FDA approval. Launch of Ray was only slowed by a couple months, so I GET their point, and understand their logic. UMM, follow the revenue, SP will follow.
I basically ignore this message board, but do pop by to see nothing has changed much. I hear the long thesis, agree with some, NOT ALL by a " LONG " shot. I hear the short thesis, and though they make a point or two that can be argued, they as a group, see the windshield, not the road. From my perspective a windshield is a splat collector, a bug magnet. As CHANOS, says, and I do respect his thesis, SHORT deteriorating fundamentals, shorting the CAP can put you in the poor house when the fundamentals warrant the cap. You need not be ann accountant to see what is going on with the FUNDAMENTALS here, no debt, VASTLY improved NET margin y/y, revenue doubling, HELLO, the lights are on, but.....
Follow the revenue, with gross margin at 50%, and basically NO LONGER TERM debt, ( 50m ), and revenue doubling, Y/Y, and net margin holding steady, eps. is POISED to take a leap from TTM .15 to the next level. There will be added expense from 4k ramp, and RAY ramp ups, but if the Gross Margin ticks up from those higher margin product earnings will follow.
Forget about how the shorts PUSHED this from 9 to 19 as retail know it alls GOT DESTROYED. Forget how the big guys pushed it back down to 9 to get to break even. You can note that there was dilution. Think about that, cause there was dilution.
FACT IS, there is good and bad dilution, but in EITHER case the share price usually drops. After all, it puts a few more bee bees in the hopper, and under water shorts use those to save their losing position. REMEMBER, dilution MOST times happens at a share price high, and many times when the share price has gotten ahead of itself. That is the nature when SHORTS are getting destroyed pushing a 9 dollar stock to a double, ouch.
So think about this, Opko had .22 revenue per share, and spent 900m to grow revenue per share to 2.12, over 800% growth in revenue per share, but about 2400% on the newly invested shares. TTM .15, and became profitable in the past 12 months.
Invest one share, grow revenue 800% because of the new share, ponder that !!!! 50% gross margin, expanding net. Do it again, please.
Will 4k, or RAY be multi billion dollar items? No way to know, but does it really matter? Opko is marginally profitable NOW, and about half of each dollar those kick in will push the profit margin and eps.
If both of those only kick in 300-400m in revenue, opko will be earning close to 1.00 up from .15, so as I like to say:
FOLLOW the revenue, umm, in this case the revenue per share, and go ahead, stretch the imagination, think about dilution, and the short term pain, LONG term gain, when each NEWLY MINTED share generated 800% revenue growth. PATIENCE.
" WILL KELCY take a BILLION DOLLAR HIT ". Merger or no MERGER it makes no difference to Kelcy, IT is to HIS ADVANTAGE to just GO AHEAD and do the merger which will benefit HIM regardless of HOW it impacts other shareholders. SO tell me why he would want OUT of the deal. HE GUARANTEED HIMSELF and ONLY HIMSELF and CRONIES NO DIVIDEND CUT. Guaranteeing that he could do this merger with NO IMPACT to Kelcy. That SELF DEALING should be tossed out, putting him at the same risk as every one else.
So will ETE take a hit in share price, the answer is yes either way, a 1 billion hit, vs a 6 billion hit, but Kelcy takes no hit, he insulated his bank account at both wmb and ete shareholders expense.
Far cheaper to list on the NASD, than nyse. Could be a few 100k cheaper per year. So it is more practical to be on the nasd. NYSE chargers extra for dual listings,, ie, ny and tase, think nasd. does not.
Though bac will be able to grow it's dividend, umm, if they do not screw up their ccar app. C will be the bank growing their dividend the most over the next 3 years. C has the fewest shares outstanding compared to the other BIG banks, bac, jpm, wfc. BAC by far the most shares and LOWEST eps. C will get to .50 a quarter, 2.00 annual Divi in the next 3 years based on 6.00 eps., 1/3 payout. Bac, MAYBE .20Q, .80 annual 4X .05 but C the better play for divi growth. Just my take.
1.8716 X 13.89 = 25.99 implied value of wmb, trading at 23.52. Not sure where you are getting 7.48, but good luck with it.
Just to finish up. Now it is possible the FDA takes forever on RAY, and medicare says NO to 4k. These are valid concerns. If opko gets a go go on both, which I think far more likely expect the job openings to get even more robust and expect revenue to follow as people get hired to better market these products. I get we have BRLI, and they are hiring like crazy, I am saying they will be hiring even more and revenue will kick it up a few notches.
Follow the revenue.
We can look for these to get an idea if a company is really ready to ramp up sales, holding steady or in some cases declining. There are a few different things depending on the industry, but by and large there is ONLY one that is common to every industry.
JOB growth. Oil is laying off, so we get it, oil is stagnant at best, or declining. This is just common sense.
So since this is an OPK board, what is Opk doing in this regard? If I were betting against revenue and earnings growth and deteriorating fundamentals for a short candidate this would be the first place to look. Are things getting worse or better at opk? Is revenue slowing down or ramping up. Have they been laying off, or cutting shifts to rein in spending? THE BIG question in this regard is ARE fundamentals getting better or worse, it is REALLY that simple. Yes, there are FDA questions, approval, no approval, when, what will sales be, etc.. There are medicare questions on 4k will it be covered, not covered and if covered at what price? If not covered how big of an impact will it be on potential revenue, on market perception of the test etc???
From my perspective I have noticed that the job openings at Opk, including BRLI, Gendx, and Eirgen have been robust and growing for over 6 months now. This is without word on Rayaldee, or medicare coverage of 4k. Some of this job growth is international, some here, but what points toward a pick up in revenue is that job openings went from about 150 to about 225 in the past six months. So a fair guesstimate is about a 5% growth in the number of employees. This 5% growth should equal a 15% or better SHORT term revenue growth but accelerated revenue going forward.
If long no reason to get too excited about these facts in isolation, though it bodes well for the core business. The real drivers will be the new revenue streams, for these to come on line, we need wait on outside factors, fda, and medicare.
Follow the revenue.
BRL max market ever was jUST over 1 billion SO according to your post they took it PRIVATE??? Share count in 2006 was 26m, peeked at about 28m, so at best the TWO authorized buy backs kept up with options. They initiated 2 1m share buy backs, the share count rose by 100k after the first announcement, and dropped by 300k after the second. NCE made up facts though.
1.2B in buy backs market cap 1b,good one.
If that is what you came away with you REALLY NEED to reread the post. First, though I referenced myself, the post WAS NOT about me at all. UNCLES is an investment site. It was a post about retirement planning, and diversifying, and not putting ones eggs in one basket. The meat of the post was about a strategy to find high yield stocks, with a few links to reits and one to mlps. The post also encouraged new investors to pick up an index fund, or even a reit fund to supplement income.
If what you came away with is that I am worried about biotech, or any other specific sector then as I said, you do need reread the post. I did edit it slightly cause adding that I need to also diversify out of some financials. So I GUESS yu would take that to mean I am afraid of them TOO? NO, but in fact my portfolio is about 40% financials, way too heavy, and NOW about 30% biotech. NO TECH, no REITS, no retail, no utes, but do own oils, but not too big a piece.
Though your picks might be nice, the piece was about HUNTING down catalysts that can CREATE super high yielders, well, in the 7-8% range when a catalyst hits. Thanks for those ideas, on ge, dow, etc., BP is a maybe, but OOPS, I own enough oil. NOW an example I did buy was ETE when it was DOG meat yielding 18%, cause I saw it as mis priced. If they mis price dow, or ge, I will look long and hard at it as potential to add income..
So thanks for the ideas, I am waiting on one but others are always considered. Reread the article, follow the stock I was referencing, BUT do not buy, watch how it plays out.
GL. OH an please, you can quote me all you want, but put it in context, trust me, I NEVER said AFRAID of BIOTECH, you did, and claimed they were my words.
You literally paraphrased Dr. Frost, and one of his MISSION statements from about 2013 or 2014. He said he would grow diagnostics into a profitable division, then USE that income to develop the pipeline. In that same letter he did say he would create a global footprint to help facilitate this growth. LOOKING like he has a plan, and is working his plan.
BRLI, will slow or stop the cash burn, even YAHOO notes Opko now has an E in the pe, lol.
The Jefferies presentation is Thur. June 9 at 11:30 et, may be accessed from Opko investor relations. There will be a replay if any investors miss the initial broadcast. I think Opko also has a second conference on the 15th, but would need to go check.
What is interesting abut that is on March 30 the FDA delayed Rayaldee. So though the stock was down a bit on heavier than average volume, it stayed well above the March 30, 9.83 number hit on 12m volume. Now opk did drift into the 9.33 area for a day or two in mid MAY, and recovered back to the 10.50 area.
Opk has a Jefferies conference next week, should get a little medicade info, and possibly 4k sales growth numbers.
Initiated coverage with a 16 price target is always nice to see. Price targets are as low as 11, and as high as 22, others targets at 18, 16, 16, 14, 12 with an average in the 15.50 area.
Those thinking upgrade, now they will sell, maybe. The low price targets are out for sure, but JPM was a buyer last Q and is waiting on their higher target. So no gimme on what the funds will or won't do.
If short, Today was a great day to take this job induced gift to cover, thinking there was a bunch of that, as support was strong at the right level.
Opk will move close to the market, but in general I anticipate a rebound next week. AsCO will be in full swing, along with Jefferies, opk has done ok coming off Jefferies Conferences before. Used 1 to announce a small merger, so we will se how it goes.
Price will follow revenue, give it time.
ttm, trailing twelve months diluted eps = .14, undiluted = .15. Revenue per share TTM = $1.47, will be appx $2.38 by q1 2017, growing at 162% annual rate. Minus one time ITEMS, eps. = .14
So it is not an error. EPS. were -.02, -.09, .00, + .25 = .14, with serious 1 time charges and 1 time gains which actually netted zero impact. So when you hear, OH, ALL the profit was TAX, know it is false. Those were OFFSET by 1 time charges for compensation, money owed the Israeli gov't, derivative charges, etc.
Just a side NOTE: Follow the REVENUE growth, ( FORWARD ) growth rate 162% before RAY, and 4k insurance.
PRICE PER SHARE will follow revenue, and EPS. will too. Patience, revenue will double each year for at least 2. SSSH, it is a secrete, tell no one.
PS. Hope you know you really are EMBARRASSING yourself. I almost feel bad for you but I don't cause you keep inserting your own foot, over and over and over again. The real fat kid whose pants fell down while running a race, he is laughing at you, he is glad you took the spotlight off of him. He might not win that race, but he did NOT FLUNK basic grade school math.
U REALLY DO MATH FUNNY. FORGET shares.INVEST 1million in each, THEN REDO your VODOO math. 1m in opko = 10m now, 1m in FACEPLANT = 2m now, WOW. FUNNY math. YOU really should just delete your post, your math skills make me hope you were home schooled and not a product of my tax dollars. Maybe great teachers, and student did no homework?