Oh and by the way, i am not recommending blue off a stage 1, expected eps. this year -2.61, next year, -3.06, and basically no revenue. That said, I DO LOVE their technology. It might be woth 18 a share in time, lol, funny how it is priced.
Bluebio though over 100 is interesting. Just wish I invested in the 17-20 range. Think about how amazing it is that ( granted phase 1 but a cure very likely) for sickle cell anemia. They take your own blood and somehow remove/replace the sickle component in your own blood with a GENE. Reintroduce your own blood and it takes over, eliminating the sickle cell from the system? THAT warrants this peculiar move from the teens to today 111.68. They have others. Mind boggling advancements are at hand. Is this blue OVER valued, OF COURSE it is, they are losing 1.77 per share. OVERVALUED? Not if you are one of those who need treatment. Guess bio is in a bubble, well bio is indeed in it's infancy.
When I look at the medical advances in the past 10-15 years it is mind blowing. I see it as a snowball rolling down a mountain, it is still near the top of that mountain, but gaining speed. If you are a healthy 5 year old today, expect to eventually be a centenarian. Also expect to work until 90, and you will likely be fit enough to work every day without issues. Well, lay off the booze, cigarettes, drugs, etc., but they are even making progress on liver lesions, so drink in moderation, lol.
All this research costs billions upon billions. After years and years of research only about 10% of the invented drugs ever get to phase 3, so 90% of the cost is lost money. I am of the belief the biotech revolution is in it's infancy. The major drug companies in the past, the PFs, the Merks, etc., were doing research to treat symptoms. So if you became ill, they put you on a drug for life, this is fine, but not a cure.
We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg when you see a drug like Gild's CURE for hep C, Blue bio, though phase 1 cure for select blood cancers. Gene replacement therapies where science is now advancing to where they can REMOVE a defective gene and replace it with a healthy one. Given time retardation, down's syndrome etc., MIGHT be greatly reduced or eliminated.
So is biotech in a bubble? Guess many early early stage companies with only preclinical, or not even a phase 1, might be. Big pharma is playing it COOL. They sell all their cough medicines, aspirins etc., banking billions. They let all these smaller companies waste billions on failed phase 1's and 2's, but when they spot a company that has thoroughly revolutionary technologies, they swoop in. Think about this, they are buying up many bio's on the cheap if you think about the cost of research to get only 10% of the drugs to enter phase 3.
So is bio tech in a bubble? Maybe sections, but if any sector should trade a tad bubbly even with no earnings, it is biotech. It is a sector that in the next 20 years will eliminate most crippling diseases, that DESERVES a premium. So talking heads, you are wrong.
When I see a bio with 1 drug, and it does a phase 1 that does well and it pops 40 bucks, that is beyond reason. That is not my point, and I would never buy one of those, that is bubble. Then look at blue, over 100 on a phase 1, that phase 1 might be the exception, lol. I did not buy, but I still follow it now that it ran from 17 to 120 or thereabouts.
A lot of talking heads on tv and news papers yapping about biotech bubble. I look biotech's like blue, ran up to well over 100 dollars on phase 1, but then in their phase one they actually showed a cure for something like cycle cell anemia? Think about biotech and the fact cures are being found, hep C, genetic replacement for damaged genes. So is it a bubble? The talking heads are hellbent on driving biotech lower, but in the big picture biotech is starting a 20 year run.
I am not the answer man when it comes to every gyration of the stock, I am a buy and hold investor. As far as big blocks after hours, I never like seeing those. It is a big seller or buyer who worked out a deal with a market maker to buy all, or a transfer from fund a to fund b. Note, the price does not move. The several times I have seen this it can lead to a DROP in the price after these exchanges if more shares are sought. They knock it down to accumulate more, then you see another exchange after hours. Keep in mind if it is two funds swapping not a big deal, it could be a big hedge fund shorting too. They do not hand out notes on who is doing the trade, or how it was designed.
Every two minutes on cnbc they are yapping bio bubble, think Yellen effect last June. If they get a 10% pull back they will move on. Near every bio I track is down 2-5%. This is NOT an OPK specific pullback, but sector pull back. Short are invited to pile on to cover later.
10 years is not out of line, but I believe COCP has a unique " PLATFORM " that could find cures for many many viruses in months not years. That said, THEY do not have one DRUG in preclinical trials so my optimism is suspect. I think their approach is so unique they might be able to jump phase 2, some drug companies opt to do that if the safety profile is great. This company does have some of the most brilliant people on the planet at the helm and also as LONG term investors.
I believe cocp needs do two things in the VERY near future, under a year. Likely a reverse stock split, and then a secondary offering to raise cash. Once I see those events I will know they have a portion of the cash needed to stay viable for one more year. Opk could always just buy them as is, and pay cash but that is up to Frost.
At this point I own no cocp, am long arry and opk in this sector. Cocp is a company I do follow, and expect a ton of hype over a phase 1, which might mean a 10 year timeline is in play for fda approval, or their unique platform shortens that window. Cocp could do that because if you can see the virus and figure a strategy based on that image, it becomes an easier target. Not sure any other company can do this with the accuracy cocp can. Their approach, IF, IF, it pans out could indeed be revolutionary.
If I lose a few points waiting on financing fine, Opk and arry will do very well over the next 2 years.
Phase I Clinical Trials: Phase I studies are usually the first tests of a drug under development in healthy volunteers. These studies involve about 20 to 80 volunteers. The tests determine a drug's safety profile, including the safe dosage range, plus how the drug is absorbed, distributed, metabolized and excreted, and the duration of its action. Phase I trials take on the average 1 year.
Phase II Clinical Trials: These are slightly larger studies that are done in patients with the disease for which the drug is intended. This phase is usually designed to identify what are the minimum and maximum dosages. The trials generally involve 100 to 300 volunteer patients and are controlled in design. They are done to assess the drug's effectiveness. Phase II typically takes about 2 years.
Phase III Clinical Trials: These are the definitive, large randomized trials that are submitted to the FDA in order to obtain approval of a drug. This phase examines the effectiveness as well as the safety (adverse events) of the new drug. Phase III trials usually involve 1,000 to 3,000 patients in clinics and hospitals. Patients are usually asked a list of possible side effects, often derived from what was observed in phase II studies. Patients are also free to report any other side effects that occur while they are on the new drug or the placebo (the "sugar pill" that is given to a percentage of patients in a trial study). Phase III takes on the average 3 years.
New Drug Application (NDA): Following the Phase III Clinical Trials, the drug manufacturer analyzes all the data from the studies and files an NDA with the FDA (provided the data appear to demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of the drug.
DR. DIPEN PAREKH ON OPKO 4KSCORE “AS OF TODAY, IT IS THE MOST ACCURATE MODEL IN THE ENTIRE WORLD TO PREDICT HIGH-GRADE CANCER”
There are leaders like Dr. Lipken that are pushing this test. I for one do not belive it will ever generate billions in any one year, but do think it could generate about 300m, in the US, and more globally if adopted as a prebiopsy as standard care. That is big enough, hehe.
Wednesday, January 21st 2015
Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senators Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Jeff Sessions (R-AL) today introduced legislation to fight prostate cancer. The National Prostate Cancer Plan Act would establish a council of federal agencies, patients, and medical experts charged with drafting and implementing a national strategy to combat prostate cancer.
“Prostate cancer is one of the leading threats to the health and lives of American men,” said Senator Boxer. “We owe it to all of our families to do everything we can to fight this deadly disease.”
“Prostate cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths in men. This legislation would help develop a national strategy to apply the best and most current medical thinking and approaches to preventing, treating, and ultimately curing prostate cancer,” said Senator Sessions.
Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men and is the second leading cause of cancer related deaths in men, with nearly 221,000 new cases and more than 27,500 prostate cancer related deaths predicted in 2015. However, current screening techniques result in numerous false-negatives, leaving many men to wrongly believe they are cancer-free, and also many false-positives, which can lead to painful, costly and unnecessary procedures.
The Boxer-Sessions legislation would direct the National Prostate Cancer Council to develop and implement a national strategic plan to accelerate the innovation of diagnostic tools to improve prostate cancer screening and early detection, while also helping to reduce unnecessary treatment. The Council would also be responsible for evaluating federal prostate cancer programs and coordinating prostate cancer research and services across all federal agencies.
The legislation has been endorsed by ZERO – The End of Prostate Cancer, the AdMeTech Foundation, the American Urological Association, OPKO Health, Women Against Prostate Cancer, the Prostate Cancer Research Institute, and the Prostate Cancer Foundat
Einstein, paraphrase, " two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the universe. " Might be my favorite quote by anyone from earth since I am about convinced I might be a Vonnegut prisoner from Tralfamadore, hence a Tralfamadorian. Either that, or insanity induced by yahoo message boards has taken hold of everyone including me, not sure which. I truly hope it is not yahoo board insanity, there is no cure. An intergalactic flight however could get all sane Tralfamadorians home. HMM. I opt for a ticket, and the little green women, hehe.
PS. Amazing people posting to you know who on his hammer post, this post was my response to that trash. Only question I have is how many more NAILS does it take in the coffin before we put the final stake in the vampire and bury him once and for ever. Two points could get you five, if I were a betting man.
Easy, 12/16/2014 opko announced a deal worth over 1/2 billion dollars, stock spiked 1.13.
Did the shorts leave?
Well they cover 2.5m, in the next two weeks, only to reup by the same over the next two weeks. Opk closed that time frame at 10.35.
Did they cover over the next two weeks? Nope short interest went up 1m over next 2 weeks, dollar cost averaging. Now we are at 1/30/2015, closed at 12.13.
Did they cover yet? 12.85 was the all time high, we breached that mark on 2/4/2015. Hence the title, longs have been hammering since 2/4/2015.
That time span they only covered 1.2m, ouch. So the new short data is out, but will be posted tomorrow, but as of last report, basically 45.5m shares are underwater. Opko closed at it's 4th highest close ever today down .17 off it's second highest close ever yesterday.
Any major news we spike more than the 1.13 pfe news, every one short the common is underwater, options to mitigate losses is their savior, but as I say, to mitigate.
The numbers given are the current ranges, but do mirror the historic.
PS, for those who look at earnings, and opk earnings calls, well, we are up .08 after 14 days, about average move, contrary to the hype. The max upside .53, down side, .48, so about 1.00 range, however the better trade was LONG.
SORTS, or is that shorts.
Now I would, but fact is, you, if short as it appears, you have not only taken out a second mortgage, but a third. Well, fact is I have no mortgage, SOO my second would really be a first. I know several people who lost everything because of margin, EVERYTHING, WIFE, HOUSE, KIDS, everything, all because they thought they were a BIG PLAYER arrogant short, or arrogant long. U fill that bill. NEVER EVER short market cap, but you can short failing fundamentals. Opk just got 275m plus cash, and the pipeline is growing into the cap. If you think the market is wrong, and over exuberant on opk, well, it might be, and can stay that way well into your bankruptcy. Think of the multimillions lost shorting this over the past 5 years, U R in that group, well, enough said cause U R my friend.
PS, if opko gets above 15 on news, and you are short and do not cover, you will get reamed. Put your stop in near that line.
down .11 from last Fri, but up .41 from the prior Fri. Nice basing process going on, I can not think of a better scenario. 4.7% off it's all time high, and roughly 3.5% off all time closing high. This is doing great here. Now you do get clowns who say it did not hold 15, well, 15 is a number on a time line, and holding 15 means it is breaking through the all time high and heading to the LTS estimate of 18.50. So I am fine with the recent action.
Opko owns a sizable position in private not publicly traded scivac, after the spinoff opko will own the same position in a publicly traded company. Not sure at what price the shares will trade , will be pennies, or number of shares to be issued but could figure it out, thinking 100m. The next step many times is a reverse split to get the shares over 1.00, then possibly a secondary to raise cash.