Interesting question, should I think best or worst case scenario. I look at Rayaldee potential market as those currently being treated. The total market if every single available patient gets the drug is 12B, however, those getting similar less effective drugs is only 4B. What percent of those 8m stage 3-4 patients get on Rayaldee? What percent of those on a similar treatment switch? 10% is good penetration, Opko thinks it will be way more. I have NO CLUE. IT will not be what Opko thinks, nor as low as I think, but 10% of a 4billion market gets me to a low ball 400M revenue number.
From uncles site a survey of Drs. looking at all data, and all drugs to hit the market in the next couple years, 40% claimed an interest in Rayaldee. If half of that 40% or 20% of all Drs. in the field prescribe Rayaldee, in that 4B market, the real market, Rayaldee does between 400m to 800m, but opko hits 1B in revenue. I can not cheer lead, Rayaldee will NOT DO 12B EVER, my estimates are close.
28-32pt on 1b revenue not out of line.
05/09/13 price change plus .12
08/09/13 price change zero
11/11/13 price change negative .02
03/03/14 price change negative .12
05/09/14 price change plus .23
total of 5 quarter moves = .09/5 = .018
Day after earnings release
05/10/13 pc = plus .06
08/09/13 pc = plus .28
11/11/13 pc = neg .12
03/03/14 pc = neg .06
05/09/14 pc = plus .17
total day after E 5 quarters: = plus .33/5 = .066
This simplified 5 quarter look day of and day after earnings in various markets over a 15 month span shows do not expect a significant move. Extraneous issues, Lakewood have moved the stock, upgrades, news releases, earnings has had an average .02, day of, to .07 day after with a net insignificant positive bias. I reworked the data leaving off one quarter in 2012, also had used filling date for one prior data point, reworked to fix discrepancy.
You sound so desperate it is hilarious, all your fud, Yellin? is that all you got? Opko has an 80% shot at being 2-3 dollars higher by late September this year. Trade accordingly. If Tesaro NDA app does not add a buck or two, Rayaldee top line data could. Both are due in next 61 days, so really think hard about your conviction in a short play with two items that could be announced after the close and MAY move the stock to a new higher trading range. Remember, there is little/no shares left to short with, no ammo to hammer it with. NEAR 20m, prolar shares used up AND NEED cover sooner or later.
Made money, tell that to the 7.5 million shares who covered at an all time high, short from 4, ouch, wedgie.
since then. EXCEPT the PROLAR shares are GONE. Blanks, shooting blanks. NO SHARES to COVER with gents, every 3m cover moves OPK a BUCK against you.
holdings. I guess he saw ALL the desperation and flaws in the article. Soros now owns 2 companies that Dr. Frost is running plus both also invested in Zebra. Talk about confidence in a CEO.
think it gets past 12.95? Likely this time. Prolar ammo GONE.
He is certainly anazzhole, or wholeazz, funnier is no one even sees the posts, the ignore feature priceless.
earnings dates and price moves,
11/9/12 plus .12
5/10/13 plus .11
11/12/13 down .12
3/30/14 plus .36
5/9/14 plus .23
Most recent 6 periods day of earnings.
Scale in with several small buys. Though Opk might get to your 8.60 range, there are two bits of news on the horizon that could let it run to the 10-11 range in short order. Not sure if NDA by Tesaro spikes it but it is due in a few weeks, and topline rayaldee news. Earnings are due next week also. Historically earnings day the stock trades as if it was a non event, roughly .25-.40 range, with a 6 quarter average move of up .12. It has not closed up .25 or down .25 in the past 6 earnings but might be the next buying opportunity if it dips a .25 in the am. Earnings could be 8/4, but Frost has released a day or two early or late in the past. Just a few thoughts.
Earnings will be a loss in the .06-.12 range, revenue in the 25 million range, no real surprises. R&D expenses dropped, outside chance a loss of .01-..06 which would be a beat yahoo shows expected loss .07-.12.
Fact, Soros reads the Lakewood hit piece and starts building a position. What did he see in the Lakewood hit piece that Bozzo missed. Did he realize Bozza had no clue about the potential of Rayaldee global sales, HGH, or the in house testing device. Why is George betting against the Bozzo guy, curious investors want to know?
The Soros fund owns 348 positions, Teva ranks number 1, Opko ranks 125, Opko is in the upper 35th percentile. Soros also invested in Zebra along with Frost. The key point is he reads the Lakewood hit piece, then starts building a position. Trust me, he read the piece, probably rolled on the floor laughing, but he read it. Then proceeded to become the 11th largest holder in Opko as he has been adding Q/Q, rising Opko from the bottom 1/3 of his holdings to upper third. Still a small position, a SOLID NAY vote on the Lakewood research. I happen to agree with George and disagree with Lakewood. That happens when you are Long and study a companies pipeline.
U have a knack for assuming things, blurting things out without doing any research, a PHD in this area.
Soros owns 348 positions, Opko RANKS 125th, so in the upper 35% of his holdings. Is it as LARGE as his number one holding Teva a Frost managed company? No. But he runs a very diversified portfolio, and CAN pick from any EQUITY on the planet, he owns THREE Frost companies, he also invested in Zebra along with Frost. You ignored the FACT he TOOK his position after he READ the Lakewood hit piece, I guess an oversight. This has not gone unnoticed by the LONGS, shorts ignore it as meaningless, or claim, the position is small, lol.
I know one thing, he took his position AFTER he had access to the Lakewood article, and would have been well aware of it, this is a fact. He added 75% last Q showing CONFIDENCE in the initial position. Bozzo vs Soros no contest who has the better research team. Bryan helped me realize this, thanks Bryan.
A bear like LW making a strong case is done to suit his position, and a bull taking the opposite position does the same. It was obvious to anyone with any research on Rayaldee that LW had no idea what thef he was talking about regarding that drug. Everything else aside, ask yourself this, who is more likely to have the best research team in the world. A man like Buffet, Uncle Carl, a man like Soros, or some kid named Bozzo. I am not even including Dr. Frost here, but since Soros grew his position q/q by 75%, is backing Dr. Frost with his money, I am betting he knows way more than Bozzo, WAY MORE. He likely understands Rayaldee for starters, lol, an item where Bozzo failed, or distorted to bail his fund out in the hit piece. In fact, lol, SOROS took out his position after having FULL ACCESS to the BOZZA research, what's that tell you. Nothing, if you have blinders on and know you are right. He sure plays a mean pinball.
Next run past 9.50 there will be NO available shares to short, need a little news to spike this item. 9.50 could be breakout point. A 5% move from here could lead to an additional spike 20% 10.80-11.00.
to 750k, down from 1m, but was only 400k on Friday, net a little covering.. Little ammo remaining.