The current reported short number we get to see is two weeks old. The last reported brli short number was 4m, that gets converted to 11m opk, added to 55.8. That brings the short number up to 66.8. The current short number also does not include week prior and post earnings. I initially thought both would be in this latest number so estimated about 70m. No way to know if some of these 66.8m have covered or not but figure on the next release date it could be 66.8-70m as a guess.
Keep in mind even if the short interest spikes as I think it will, the bulk were ( 11m ) a paper transfer. Shares of brli shorted prior to merger.
That same group brought it back down to this 11+ range, they have limited shares to mitigate losses. The BRLI deal, OMG, they think it saved their collective buttts, watch. I said before opk, ummm, after next earnings could be back to 18-22, we will see. Notice that ROLAPITANT approval is due, and will happen, kicks in about 50m rev in the next year, long, is prudent.
Lakeweed, Rolapitant fails, = approval, near 1b market, over 100m to opk. Blindsided by HGH and PFE deal, yep poor research. Rayaldee? KICK LOWKNEES, and other misconceptions. 4k, standard care in 24 months, HELLOW,
THE lights are on, but NO ONE's HOME, brain deads are not alone. They keep trying to exit, but every 10m exit raises opk at this pont about 7 points, sad position.
Yes Chuck I agree. Nice to see the timeline spelled out, adds clarity for opko longs, lol, and shorts too. It is great for new BRLI holders who might have felt Opko bought nothing to the dance. Without Brli, Opko's future or projected revenue must have seemed appealing compared to the slow but steady growth ( 10% annual ) at brli.
Opko down plays ie., basically never mentions preclinical items, mice studies, sheep, etc.. Dr. frost has stated in the past that many of those can not advance because finances need focus on late stage items, rather than spread limited resources over dozens of phase studies. As finances improve over the next year we can anticipate moving from animal trials to human safety trials on some of these unique higher risk higher reward items. Like Dravet syndrome med would be huge, but expensive undertaking that will likely get on line once we can afford it. The asthma drug too, we own a unique, advanced inhaler to pair with it.
Notice too the pipeline drugs anticipate US and EU approvals, and some Japan, so global footprint will have a big hand in revenue as drugs clear respective regulators.
PS. Note too that in the letter as they detail the status of each drug there is one thing common to near all. The commonality is the global scope, USA, SA, Europe, and Japan. These drugs are intended for export with global approvals anticipated, global orphan status, etc., already pending or done. It is easy to get a drug approved outside the US if the medical authorities there have given the GREEN ( pun ) light to phase studies as opposed to getting approval here, then asking. What happens in the later case is they can and do many times ask for further phase studies, or put you through hoops. Getting EU approval to market anything requires an EU approved facility too, we have Eirgen.
is the Claros device. As soon as the device is ready for prime time and approved they intend to develop many of the standard blood tests, and many on the brli proprietary tests focusing on men's and women's health.
The letter was the most comprehensive overview of the pipeline to date, outlining synergies between opko diagnostics and brli's diagnostics, and guiding toward a profitable path. Currently the diagnostics division is the big revenue generator, with brli contributing about 87% of revenue. In a couple years, Opko biologics and Renal divisions will be the main driver of revenues. Looking over the timeline/pipeline it appears by mid/late 2017 brli will only be contributing about 25% of revenue with biologics and renal as the growth engine contributing 75%.
So is Opko a diagnostics or a biotech company? Ummm, yes. Today diagnostics drives revenue, in a few short years diagnostics takes a back seat.
This may have been posted here before, no way to know, so if it was, it is the condition of this message board that creates these type issues. Regardless, opk will share in those royalties. Appears TSRO plans on having Rolapitant in as many countries as possible, Opk can cover America South.
Press release at TSRO website. The meat:
TESARO AND JIANGSU HENGRUI MEDICINE ANNOUNCE ROLAPITANT LICENSE AGREEMENT FOR CHINA
WALTHAM, Mass., July 30, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TESARO, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSRO), an oncology-focused biopharmaceutical company, and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co., Ltd., a fully integrated pharmaceutical company based in China, today announced an exclusive license agreement for the development, registration, manufacture, and commercialization of rolapitant in China. Hengrui will make upfront and milestone payments to TESARO subject to the achievement of certain events, in addition to royalty payments on annual net sales in China. Additional financial details were not disclosed.
First brli had 4m short times, 2.75 = add 11m. This report date is prior and post earnings where they pushed hard. Guessing with the Brli short added in the number will be north of 70m up from 54m. Rocket fuel maybe, but shorts do not make money until they cover. You know, bears make money etc.. If they are not scaling out they might see some portion of their losses widen, or winnings shrink. Not sure on the TSRO Rolapitant potential pop, might be a yawn, but not worth gambling on.
If we look out to 2017, opko revenue projections can not be done with any clarity. Figure the absolute low is 1.4B, this includes Brli, and all current revenue streams. Based on current expenses, opko will be profitable in 2016 and 2017. We do not know how much revenue 4k will generate, or the other Claros designed tests, testosterone, vit D, lyme, etc. We do not know Rolapitant, Rayaldee, or HGH, or hemophilia revenue, which will all be on the market. So revenue could be as low as 1.4, if none of those drugs sell, or as high as 5B, if they generate 3.6B.
Guess my point is buy, hold, and wait. Opko has about 10 known revenue catalysts coming in the next 24 months.
Aug. 10, farryman gave his detailed evaluations based on biotech vs lab valuations. Well thought out, but not sure what revenue and eps. numbers he was using. My take is that opk ran too far too fast, 19 was real high, as I think 10+ is too low. I have no idea if the market is pricing opk as a lab now, but farryman figured as a lab opk could reach 45? Well, that would take serious revenue growth, but not impossible given a few years. The stock is down because there were less buyers and more sellers, and shorts pounding daily. They were ALL underwater, some are up now, some near break even, and yes, many still under water. Now throw in the general market weakness and fact near EVERY biotech is DOWN HUGE in the past 4 weeks, brli disgruntled and here we are.
It had no impact but the short number will be up big, as those short brli are now short opk. think they took a loss? Or have they been pounding to get even?
My 2015 pt for opk was 14 and has not changed, 2016 is 28-32. Rolapitant next week, and earnings about 7 weeks later with brli numbers, and hopefully a 4k pay rate will get opk moving back up.
Figure tsro has dropped 20 points in the past month, about 5.00 a week. It is back to Feb levels as are many biotechs. My thought is the run from 45 to 66 was a bit excessive, but this drop equally so. Think it recovers no less than 5-6 from 46 IF the fda gives positive news, at this point it is no longer priced in, but priced for an FDA rejection. That is the real risk, but is worth kicking the tires. A rejection could send tsro back to 25-28, but based on the data from the phase 3, a rejection is not in the cards. If Tsro gets a few upgrades after the fda news, could recover a majority of the recent 30% plunge. opko should get a smaller pop on the news, but should catch a bid along with tsro.
I know after hours USUALLY means nada, umm, it is indicative when you are trading in the top of nyse after hours, up near 1%, and have traded near 8% of your shares. UMMM, up day tomorrow is painted on this tape.
Depends? Over sold? Not sure your point. Do you mean those on margin best buy a few dozen pair of depends, or the market is over sold? Regardless of the point, both are valid.
Fastest brli shares is likely 3 days, but could be 4. Prolor took a tad LONG-er, up to two weeks or so cause of double listing, tase, nyse. Same as a trade, they need have all trades clear, usually 3 days. They CAN NOT assume you are still an owner of BRLI shares, so brli holders have to wait.