Funny to see the shorts thumb a post reporting the facts about their co-conspirators, you know, a report on data. Guess they dislike the idea a few have taken their profit and moved on. Um, the sensible move, covering in the 8's but pushing the stock to the 9's costing their buds a few bucks. First to cover wins.
but think I saw Dec for the Novartis mek. Think approval by 2016 if the studies pan out. 7 phase 3 studies with results spread out through 2017, longer term thinks look good.
Current availability a tiny 350K, down from 600K at open. 1.2M available high point for July at AIB.
My hunch is since 7/15 it may have inched back up a little based on AIB availability. The 51.9M was highest ever, but also resulted in no shares available to short on consecutive days, ouch.
Opko certainly has a presence in Latin America, enough so to do a very successful launch of Rolapitant. I for one do not even count that revenue when I look at Opko's pipe line, but that one drug in Latin A could generate 50M easily once established.
Preparations in support of our anticipated submission to the FDA in approximately six weeks of an NDA for oral rolapitant are currently ongoing; upon acceptance of this NDA by the FDA, we would owe OPKO a milestone payment of $5.0 million. In addition, we are required to make milestone payments to OPKO of up to an aggregate of $85.0 million if specified levels of annual net sales of rolapitant are achieved. If commercial sales of rolapitant commence, we are required to pay OPKO tiered royalties on the amount of annual net sales achieved in the United States and Europe at percentage rates that range from the low teens to the low twenties, which we expect will result in an effective royalty rate in the low teens. The royalty rate on annual net sales outside of the United States and Europe is slightly above the single digits.
OPKO also retains an option to become the exclusive distributor of such products in Latin America, provided that OPKO exercises that option within a defined period following specified regulatory approvals in the United States.
Yes tesaro mentioned it was 5m upon acceptance of nda. Application being submitted in appx 6 weeks, Early Sept if all goes well.
Look at the short numbers, and available shares on aib, the ammo is gone. Max short number all time since Prolar deal = 51.9m, at that number there were zero shares available to short. Current reported number 48.9, down 3m, available 400k, . End of their rope without ammo to hammer.
Arry needs real news to get it running such as Phase 3 positive news. With 90% fund ownership, and more shares short than owned by retail is a big bonus. Funds will ride way longer while shorts find no shares to cover. Massive 50-60 phase pipeline plus the low market cap makes it a take over target for their MEK and HER technologies. Technologies that are fairly new making arry more speculative but with massive upside if they pan out.
Once phase 3 news starts hitting this will run straight to 15 or better, IMHO. The time frame is the real question, but quite a ways off is my guess, mid 2015 is earliest top line data I think. Anyone have a different earlier date?
So getting above 4.80 would be nice, it is of little import in the bigger picture here if the bigger picture is real and not a mirage of failed studies. I for one thought this would be in the 7-8 range by now but with no solid news it will just bounce around between 3.50-5.50, so trade in and out, but build a position before news hits.
Arry will do well, give it time. 7 phase 3, over 40 phase 2. Phase 3 data starts rolling in in about 6-8 months. They also have a pan-her in phase 1, similar to puma, that is why the little pop yesterday. Under 4.00 is a great entry, under 5.00 not bad either. High chance of buy out with over 50 phase studies, and heavy weight partners, matter of patience.
Disappointed only 4 thumbs after 40 minutes. Maybe shorts liked the one about what is the difference between being short and shooting fish in a barrel, ans: nothing except Dr. Frost does not shoot fish in a barrel. Sky diving with an umbrella, I thought 10 thumbs by now, lol.
Nothing is really easily explained but it is an easy explanation based on the premise that two drugs either get rejected, or if accepted do not generate anticipated sales. I have the lowest sales projections of any analyst who follows Opko, 1 billion total revenue by EOY 2016 which includes 4k, vitamin D test, testosterone test, Rolapitant, Rayaldee, and the current pharma global divisions. The FDA will approve both drugs, I guarantee it, of course you all might think my guarantee worthless however both Rayaldee and Rolapitant had/will have P values well within approval ranges. Rayaldee P below .01 makes it a slam dunk. Bri Bri, matter of time, I will be proven correct, the stock will see 28-32 by EOY 2016 and you will either be long, or long gone, pun intended.
Prolar AMMO GONE, retail shorts will become one big splat on the sidewalk. First to cover gets a life line and a parachute and saves their portfolio.
Instead of giving thumbs, debate what I posted, explain it away if you can.
I Could have been conservative and picked Nov 15, but I figure Aug as the time frame for both Rayaldee data ( could always be late ) and Rolapitant NDA, so likely two catalysts by Sept 15, before Nov 15th is a given. Teens is a thought the shorts have not even considered, they are coming.
is that if 7.5 million share cover moved opko from 8.50 to 12.95 a 4.45 move, this could be duplicated and then some. Granted that move was nothing more than a squeeze, and it did not hold. The Prolar dilution 50 million shares basically guaranteed the ammo to save the short funds who had the deepest pockets to pile on. The individual investor got slammed. The AMMO is all used, the shorts piled on 20M Prolar shares and the stock is up above the 8.50 number that was the launch pad to 12.95.
This could get interesting, no ammo to cap share price this time, no shares to cover with, No real resistance above 11, most action in the 11-12.95 range was shorts selling to shorts covering, we will see. Might spike to the 13-14 range this time around, but then that is a guess, most of the spike will again be shorts. If enough strong hands buy the available shares, available to short shares will stay tiny.
With so few shares available to short ( aib 300K today ) I expect a spike and a continuation and 70-80% of the spike to hold putting every short under water AGAIN. Opko might exit the year a teen, We will see.
Someone here owns exel, they also have data coming out in the near future. That one got slammed when study was a continue, not a halt. If I were to pick up one it might be exel: from a July 14th 2014 press release:
These positive top-line results from coBRIM represent an important milestone for melanoma patients and their physicians, and are the first of four anticipated phase 3 pivotal trial read-outs for Exelixis-discovered compounds in 2014,” said Michael M. Morrissey, Ph.D., president and chief executive officer of Exelixis. “Despite recent therapeutic innovations, BRAFV600 mutation-positive advanced melanoma can be difficult to treat due to the emergence of resistance. We look forward to the full presentation of the data later this year. If ultimately approved, we will execute on our collaborative U.S. co-promotion effort with Genentech and work alongside our partner to bring this important new therapeutic option to melanoma patients in need.”
In addition to the coBRIM results just announced, Exelixis anticipates delivering on the following key clinical development initiatives before the end of 2014:
Top-line results from pivotal phase 3 studies COMET-1 (overall survival endpoint) and COMET-2 (pain palliation endpoint) of cabozantinib in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer;
Top-line results from the overall survival analysis of EXAM, the phase 3 pivotal trial of cabozantinib in progressive, metastatic medullary thyroid cancer; and
Completing enrollment in METEOR, the phase 3 pivotal trial of cabozantinib in metastatic renal cell cancer.
Agen has a nice pipeline too, a little position in each works.
Said BUY IT phase 3 data at hand.