Not so sure on their ability to unblind. My understanding is that the only one who can look at blinded data is an independent data monitoring committee. If the company unblinds it is my understanding that no future data can be included, the study ends, and only data up to that date can be used. Interim results are collected by the data monitoring committee, they give this to the company, which the company may or may not make public. At no time until completion does a company look at the data it is handled at arms length. Just my understanding of how it works. Unblinding early can impact significance levels.
It is just chatter, Miami. Of ALL the companies on the PLANET that are publicly traded I would bet Opk has had the most individual public market buys by insiders, the most ( as a percent ) of options purchased, with the fewest shares solid to profit an insider. Though when options are exercised most insiders just dump all and pocket the free cash, at opk it is the NORM to sell enough to cover out of pocket tax.
Look at msft, and though they have cut down on options, it has been a 20 year dump by insiders, csco, etc., it is throughout the public markets. This is also true with hundreds of start up companies. Part of this continuous dilution is because for many companies the pay check is far smaller part of compensation than the options. For many start ups the option route is used because cash is so scarce., ie. cheaper to pay with stock than cash. This is a total disregard for share holders, but it is common.
In a sense it is not fair to hold Opk insiders to some HIGHER standard. Frost buying or selling is one thing, the rest of the insiders are not multibillionaires though many do have millions, and in Jane's case a few 100 million.
So my take is no one should have a ONE stock portfolio, because that is indeed not a portfolio at all, and dangerous. I think insiders need divest stock to diversify, so I for one do not care if they sell. Now if Frost was selling, I would sing a different high pitched tune, but not likely to happen.
Good find. From completion to data read out might be about 90 days. They will still get nda filed this year if positive results. I doubt they get data out by June, so likely July, Aug, and these dates are best guesses on my part. Hope data read is earlier, lol.
and Alzheimer's disease. Not a cure, but in preclinical studies has shown promise. Opk has had the right to sr-3306 for a couple years now, but has not been in a position to start human studies. This is one I have patiently been waiting on. With the cash infusion from pfe, and the further advances in preclinical studies, might be getting sooner than later. This will take years to bring to market, but could be huge. Halting a disease from causing further damage is not a cure, but if a treatment can halt progression, early diagnosis is the issue that will determine quality of life. So far only animal studies, but the fact the drug penetrates the blood brain barrier, and is able to hit it's intended targets in animals is promising.
This has been on the back burner at opk, hope they make a move to develop it soon, or just sell their rights to someone who can bring this to market faster.
If you want to find the site, search google - forums. That gets you to the google forums home page. Then on the google forums home page search for frost, that will get you to the frost investment links, jack frost links etc.
One of the astra trials ( sumit ) results is due in q2, though these things tend to never be on time. If positive they plan to submit this year. So the balance of the phase 3 studies is 2016-2017, for submission. The point being other than the sumit trial the timeline is drawn out well over a year for possible submissions. With drugs the passage of time from pretrial to completion is years, that allows for newer competing technologies to leap frog sometimes near decade old discoveries. This fact is not lost on big pharma. I remain positive because Astra and NVS not only have moved forward with the arry pipeline, but have expanded the number of studies each year.
If arry were to be bought out today the premium paid would be small, if that were to happen say in 2016, after a second NDA, arry might fetch a nice premium, no idea of how much, or where arry would be trading at that time. A buyout now would likely be in the 16 range, so figure it is better to wait. Think at least one of the former NVS trials completes late 2015 but could be early 2016. A buyout after that news, if positive should be in our favor.
lol, that is why I have to look things up before posting things as facts. When I rely on memory I really mess up the facts. On second look, I see a Feb 2014 post about opk in the xbi, so at least OVER a year.
Funny is you posted on it in the past too k77, on Feb 4th 2015, you said " Opk is part of. Efts tna and xbi "
No clue, but they did not just get added. I know they were in it back in June 2014, and others have posted on this in the past. Those etfs buy, and dump too, I would rather be in no etfs. Just a quick search of posts here, searching XBI, the earliest mention I see was April 10, 2014 by wolfpk. He said, if yahoo will let me copy and paste, " I'm no chartist but the XBI is another etf you could follow to track the overall biotech sector. The fund includes 82 different stocks and OPK is in the top ten of holdings. I remain optimistic that the biotech sector will bounce back with a vengeance, soon. "
The current generation, UM, those under 50, lol, are quite adept at reading words but FAIL at reading comprehension. Weekly reader was a part of my early childhood. You got tested on it too. I always wanted to get the best score on reading comp tests, and guess I might have averaged above 90 somewhere. Well a tad higher, but still, students read, and basically see letters, they make those into words, but UNDERSTAND NOTHING. Might be LEAD in the air, U know, Lead, dead head, my son is guilty of this too so, it is a curiosity.
should be out next week. No guarantee on that, I could not FIND a solid release date but the best I can figure last year the release date appears to have been March 19. In the most recent earnings CC it was stated the NCCN guidelines should be out in Q1, 2015, so that leaves 2.5 weeks. Rayaldee NDA is also anticipated in this same 2.5 week time frame. These events may or may not pop the stock, no telling how baked in they are, but the info has been out there for a few months. Still good news, and I really do not care if it pops the stock, just nice seeing opk holding steady in a new trading range building a nice base.
Well hope at least one or two traders made a nice trade based on this idea. C on this date 48.54, up 6.00, bac 15.97, only up .12 cents, but as a paired trade given the known catalyst, a gimme. Both never closed lower than on this date either, so a double win regardless.
They gave BAC permission to do the 4 billion share repurchase. So if the plan was way off they would not have said go ahead and invest 4B in your stock. They can resubmit any time between now and the Sept deadline. This is a minor tweak to the plan not a complete over haul. Not thrilled with bac not being allowed to raise the divi, or size of the buy back allowed, but the fed is master. They sue like crazy then say you do not have enough cash to raise the dividend. Well, the suits are about over, so it should get better in the next few years. Still sucks short term if you follow the tick by tick move of the stock, knowing full well if the gov stepped aside the stock should be trading in the low 20's.
Excerpted from Arby:
" Currently out of the 451 million shares Frost, Hsaio, and Rubin own 252 million.
This leaves about 200 million. Then take out 80 million for the institutions, which leaves 120 million as the remaining float.
Currently there are about 55 million shares short in the US and Israel combined for basically 1 out of every 2 shares just to cover the shorts."
The move from the 8.00 range to the 14.00 range was NOT orchestrated by shorts, um, longs rule, shorts
Fact is some of the 80m owned by funds is a hedge to a short, retail is in control here more than ANY stock.
THAT is why WE can not lend our shares out. This is a unique situation that almost never happens, retail controlling the short position, and availability. Contact your broker, put shares in IRA, in this unique situation, IT WORKS. Convinced it was part of the run, and houses pulling shortable shares, we ALL saw that happen, as this has been a theme. Yep not shares to short, longs pulled shares.
In recent days seeing availability inch up, need keep up the pressure.
I own some too, there are a few opk/arry owners. Think arry will catch opk share price in 2015. Waiting on astra phase 3 data, due in under 90 days. Should be the catalyst to get arry to 12-14, or so. I then expect a buyout of arry. WISHFUL thinking? OF COURSE it is. I think the odds of an opk buy out are 1/1000, arry odds 60/100. The NVS deal makes ARRY a fairly risk free buyout target. If not, they are in GREAT shape to stand alone.
Thanks Miami, nice of you to copy the post. I was basically reiterating a recent Buffet interview Where he pointed out the difference between investing and trading. In his opinion investing beats trading hands down, but what does he know??? LOL. Guess if I had the INTEREST on his money I could burn mine.
That is the difference between an investment and a trade. In a recent interview Buffet said, and I paraphrase, people think we are upset when one of our investments drops in price. That could not be farther from the truth, we are glad when one of our investments drop, the last thing we want it to do is go up. If you think about his game plan it makes a ton of sense and is a win, win for Buffet. If one of his investments drops enough, he keeps adding, then buys the entire company. If he does not buy the company, he just keeps adding, lowering cost, until the companies stock recovers. I said companies stock, because Buffet recognizes that contrary to popular opinion, the stock and the company are not the same thing. He stated BRK stock has been cut in half several times, did that really make BRK half as valuable? He then said, well of course it does if you were a seller not a buyer getting it at a 50% discount.
A trade on the other hand if long should be stopped out if the catalyst you bought for does not work out. Stops should be in the 5% range. Trades only work out sometimes, you will get it wrong. Example of a trade I mentioned here about 3 weeks ago was C heading into stress test. Was maybe 51, at the time, had a known catalyst which will be announced in 5 days. Win or loss I will be out of most, if not all the position, but no less than half. I anticipate another 2-3 points of upside. I bought in the 50 range, so have 3 points cushion on the down side. If they fail final leg I expect max pain 2 pts. Same situation with bac, similar cushions, known catalysts for a trade.
So opk is an investment one we longs buy on weakness, and for me C and bac are a calculated short term
catalyst driven trade that will be sold if my cost basis gets breached.
I am in C and Bac, and haven been waiting on this, and the ccar news next Wed.