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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

burnaka 275 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: May 19, 2010
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  • burnaka Apr 4, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    Those who are still short, think about two things. First, you HAD your downside catalyst and great opportunity to cover at 9.83. THAT catalyst FAILED to create the desired downtrend to either recoup losses, or make incremental profits. The chart is talking to you, the uptrend lines were not breached, so it really is decision time. You could RISK doubling down here, in this OVERCROWDED short position, or step aside. Hedge funds are exactly that, HEDGED with options. IF you are not, think how BADLY retail got crushed on the last uptrending chart as retail shorts covered 12m, pushing opk to 19. COVERING pushes this piece hard.

    Currently at 10.53, heading toward a gap close, above Friday's HIGH, just fodder for thought. OH, ps. THEY DID MAKE MORE SHARES available to short this am, up about 1m from Fri, figure a fund covered that 1m freeing them up for retail, just my take. At 10.55 late day run???

  • burnaka Apr 4, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Friday we closed at the upper end of the 10.30-10.40 stated above, umm at 10.41, so we sort of hit that target, lol. As above, still need to close above 10.49, which was Friday's high, which WE did get over. As of now we have 3 higher lows, and 2 higher highs, just topping last THUR's high of 10.56. So my take is the powers that be are trying to paint a short term double top in the 10.56-10.57 area, but not sure we should buy that idea.

    The magnet to close the gap, though not a super magnet has gone NOWHERE, note the 3 higher lows and pressure on the tops. A close above 10.49 today and the ODDS raise sharply for the gap close in the low 11's. Not closing above 10.49 does not negate this move, but moves it out a day or two. Nice if we run late again, and get above 10.56, but not banking on it. Think we end the day in the 10.40-10.50 range, with short term and LONGER term uptrend in tack. When we did not hold below 10, the longer term down trend from 19 reversed and the nearer term uptrend from 7-8 area a nice + 30% move was confirmed. As always Opk does not trade in a vacuum, so if the market stays mild, expect to get a gap close sooner than later. Tomorrow, Wednesday, by Friday, I do not know, but chart says it happens.

  • be made by those who expected the " BIG TANK " or " BIG SPIKE " on Rayaldee news. Seems the short term low was set on the news, upside gap should be the magnet. NOT a super strong magnet, but the area of least resistance. As yesterday, 10.49 still an area to get over, um, and hold, then 10.75, then the gap close. Ending session in this 10.30-10.40 range bodes well for a gap close early next week. Maybe by Tues. Not a huge move, about .60, but % wise still about 7% loss for some, profit opportunity for others making the move choppy. We will see, my wager is it happens, but market needs stay passive.

  • Reply to

    Pin the tail on the donkey...

    by miamianne67 Mar 31, 2016 6:14 PM burnaka Mar 31, 2016 10:55 PM Flag

    Great one, beyond good, that is hilarious. We know there is a herd of donkeys, 66m of em, so it could take a while, THAT is a lot of tails to pin.

  • burnaka Mar 31, 2016 3:40 PM Flag

    Hold the lemons, pass the limes, always a great idea, have fun Drangles, have one for me, doubt I need twist your arm on that request, lol.

  • burnaka Mar 31, 2016 3:07 PM Flag

    LATE day run, hope it continues, we will see.On time more or less, back log of built in buyers need get out of losing, or potential losing position. Uptrend in tack, looking for continuation to close above mentioned gap.

  • burnaka Mar 31, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    My take was 10 weeks min, April 15 for cat to respond, then either 8 weeks or 16 for fda, so my take on min time is 10 weeks.

  • burnaka Mar 31, 2016 2:31 PM Flag

    He likely could, but it would take FAR FAR longer, and then the need to get an FDA initial inspection which might take even longer again, than fixing form 483 issues. Rayaldee is not a simple drug to make,it would TAKE months to set up equipment that can attach the peg, and get dosing right. Not every GEL pill plant can do this reverse peg thing, this is VERY high tech process.

  • burnaka Mar 31, 2016 1:53 PM Flag

    Easy call now that it pulled back, bid 10.26, down from 10.56, but DO not be surprised to see it hang in the 10.25 area and run back up in the3-4 time area. Not saying it gets back over 10.50, but I think it runs up a little late.

  • burnaka Mar 31, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    Question is does it get over 10.75 today??? Would be tough, but that is not off the table. MANY MANY buyers with fingers perched on the do I cover NOW button. 10.50 up from 10.20 in an hour.

  • burnaka Mar 31, 2016 12:56 PM Flag

    They not only do not read the same article, they see a different chart. They see the chart they want to see, not the one in front of them. The down trend line was not breached, uptrend line intact.

  • burnaka Mar 31, 2016 12:49 PM Flag

    Does it do it today? That is not off the table. MANY many buyers, umm, FORCED buyers need buy OPK, they got their shot yesterday, on the mixed FDA news.

  • a move back toward 11 early next week closing this upside gap. I see 10.49, 10.75 as short term issues that need to be taken out. As FORBES says this " SHORT "( pun ) term noise is a buy the dip OPPORTUNITY. If you NOTICED the analysts came out IN SUPPORT of the stock MAINTAINING upside targets AVG 17.80, while HOLDING steady on REVENUE and EPS. projections.

  • Reply to

    highlowsel -   ·√ⁿ

    by roshpina1882 Mar 31, 2016 8:45 AM burnaka Mar 31, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    Might close in a higher range, as a new daily high was hit a minute or two ago, might get opk in the 10's on close. My take on HL TA, could be off, he can elaborate, but that was MY take, and my take only.

  • Reply to

    highlowsel -   ·√ⁿ

    by roshpina1882 Mar 31, 2016 8:45 AM burnaka Mar 31, 2016 11:32 AM Flag

    if it hits that 9.70, the line likely moves, the close today and tomorrows action could make 9.70 a non issue, settling out in the 10 range. Your trade, if you get what highlow said was buy under 10, sell over ten, a second buy around 9.70 if reached, but with a tight stop. That was how I read it anyway. Looks to close in low 10's high 90's, as forbes says buying opportunity.

  • so that makes two drugs this year, not bad.

  • Reply to

    Opko files SEC form 14A

    by k9uwa Mar 26, 2016 12:33 PM burnaka Mar 26, 2016 1:34 PM Flag

    Good info, this leaves 322,099,122 in the actual free float. Retail owns a VERY large percent of that, approaching the insider number. That is WHY retail should MOVE shares out of a margin account. Insiders + fund ownership = 223,740,878 +115,483,623 = 339,224,410. Total float 545, 840,000 - 339,224,410 = ( retail )206,615,590. The insiders own 40.74% retail is not very far behind at about 37.8%. Available shares to short is small, a handful of retail yanking their shares from the " available to borrow pool " can create issues.

  • burnaka Mar 26, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    Thanks Hab & Kcos. I always find it amusing, all the thumbs down and up too but not as amusing on ups.

    I have no monopoly on thumbs down, but ALWAYS seem to get a bunch when I present a little research that paints OPK in a favorable light.

    The INFO is NOT my opinion, I did not invent it, or create it out of thin air.

    The INFO is the opinions of 6 paid analysts who in all honesty, give THEIR best GUESS. We can all and we all do the same thing. We guess at a price THAT helps our position, 7, 10, 20, and A FEW way out there guesses, 1, 2, 3, and at the other end 50, 80, 100.

    The analysts guesses are at least based on REVENUE and eps. models, growth models, and current market conditions, and with all that 85% fail in their projections, few beat the S&P index.

    Opko does not help in this situation either, here is why. Look at the REVENUE estimates, Take the 2017 revenue estimate, low to high, the discrepancy is a MASSIVE 320 million. So the GUY with the 1.69 billion estimate has a likely 22 target, and the guy with a 1.37 Billion number a far lower price target. Opko gives no revenue estimates so it is a BEST guess GAME, and OPKO is partially responsible for this wide range. This is NOT a SEE I told you so, LOOK OPK gives no guidance thing. OPKO CANNOT give guidance because THERE are too many moving variables right now, today. Insurance coverage for one, payment rates, uptake of tests, new drug, and again coverage, and rates. Their guess would be as wild as the analysts, so best MOVE, say nothing.

    So,thumb away, but the average price target is quite possible, 17.20, if OPKO can generate revenue and eps. above the consensus AVERAGE.

  • 2 holds. Estimates are from low to high, 11, 12, 14, then it jumps to 19, 20, 22. Well, it has hit 19 in the past 12 months which was and is Barrington's target. Once Rayaldee gets approved expect a few of those lower targets to move toward the higher end of consensus.

    Most equities ratings are listed with historic up/down grades at analyst rating network. They usually catch about 95% of all analyst's moves, so they do miss a call or two. Yahoo is obviously missing one of the three 19-22 targets, they show 16.80 as the consensus. I know ARN missed one about a year ago, which was a 19 price target, they have corrected it, but that 19 is now a 20. Was 19, 19, 22, on upper end, currently 19, 20, 22.

    The low end is likely too low, Opk has surpassed those targets in the past, and should retest those. The high of the high end might be too high, but the consensus is a reasonable target. Six analysts, and the low to the high discrepancy is a 100% move, 11 low-high 22, talk about the TWO camps of thought on OPK.

    Will note one thing, even with these analysts being all over the NUMBER LINE on this equity, 5 of the six talking know nods have higher targets than the recent close, so one might think the uptrend will hit a few of those higher estimates. The consensus, 17.20 would be higher than 3 estimates, BUT lower than 3, sounds like a possible landing spot based on estimates.

  • Reply to

    I bought ISRG at 21 and it tanked to 7.60

    by hellbent_is_back Mar 24, 2016 10:30 PM burnaka Mar 24, 2016 11:46 PM Flag

    497/16 = 31.06, good call opko losing.

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