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Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. Message Board

burnaka 458 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 4, 2015 10:45 AM Member since: May 19, 2010
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  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 5, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    Two VERY different types of people. BRLI, is a deep value investor, looking for steady growth over the long haul, with no surprises. Opk is not for the faint of heart, the more speculative investor, looking for rapid growth over a 4-5 year period. Interesting is that retail only owns about 3m shares of BRLI just above 10% insiders own about 10% and funds own 80%. Share count is small 27m. There is an overlap in fund ownership like Vanguard, blackrock, FMR, Dimentional fund, Mellon etc who own both. These guys will do the arbitrage thing, selling some opk, buying brli, but end up with their position unchanged. Opko retail owns roughly 40% of the non insider shares, a big position compared to most companies. The single largest BRLI share holder is Vanguard and they only own 1.8m shares. So based on the fact no fund owns even 10%, I doubt these funds stand in the way of the deal. They just might not want to own more and more opk is all.

  • Reply to

    I JUST EMAILED ONE OF THE ATTYS ....

    by bronxrealtyco Jun 5, 2015 4:22 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 5, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    You are not even eligible since you bought your shares after the announcement, but have fun.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 5, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    It is like this, many opk holders are selling opk to buy brli, the premium has been diminished greatly. The long time BRLI holders seeing this will either try to block the deal, or sign on to the suit to black mail more shares. So dumping here, and buying there is though we get more votes, we are alienating long time brli holders with this move, they could easily block the deal if the opko premium vanishes. So we need keep opk, but pick up BRLI and hopefully opk firms up here, and rises.

  • Looking at brli share count, if opk holders pick up 11m shares the deal is done, the float is that small. I would rather own opk as a stand alone than brli as a stand alone. I would not flip out of opk just in case the deal gets voted down. Need opk holders to buy BRLI to impact the vote. I know several have, but unfortunately they are dumping OPK to do so, not good, IT hurts the likely hood the deal gets pushed through and plays into a class suit by brli holders.

  • Guy smokes some strong weed, C will be lucky to get to 60.

  • Insiders own about 10% would not surprise me to see Frost buy 10%, leaving 31% for approval. A few other opk insiders could pick up shares too, as are opk longs. Opk longs only need own 11m shares, bet that is in the works based on opk's volume, and dedication to Frost and knowledge of Opk's pipeline makes for a confident buy in here.

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by pler33 Jun 5, 2015 10:44 AM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 5, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    It will be a win win, look at it this way, if 4k gets standard of care designation, that one test will generate roughly no less than 300m, 1/3 of current BRLI revenue. Rayaldee in year one will do no less than 300m. but Frost believes way way more, closer 1b. Opko's pipeline is high reward, high probability of approval. BIO BETTERS. Far less risk than an oncology pipeline. Opk diagnostics division could match BRLI revenue in two years with or with out BRLI, having BRLI run it for OPKO is that win win. The revenue in that division with patent development goes into OVER DRIVE.

    Remember too, if BRLI management sees other platforms, tests, or patents they want, FROST will get them. This combo will be fantastic, will take a little time, but revenue will ramp up the more tests they miniaturize. Each miniaturized test eats into lab corp, and quest, patience.

  • He did that after the Prolor deal, figure he is doing it again.

  • up once the deal closes. WHY do I think this? LOL. Frost loves getting opk shares at a discount, he was buying PROLOR shares to capture the arbitrage. Trust me he is buying heavy.

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by pler33 Jun 5, 2015 10:44 AM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 5, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    You do really need dig deeply into opko. Opko will not run BRLI, BRLI will continue as is, but revenue goes to opko. Brli is getting OPKO diagnostics, and will take over that division. Not sure if the in the Drs. office analyzer was what they wanted, or if they want to miniaturize many of their own lab tests to this opk patented card. With BRLI expertise, and OPKO's patented technologies, BRLI will start catching up to quest and lab corp in terms of sales given a few years. As a stand alone diagnostics division, in time they could get spun back off, but be the diagnostics leader by then.

    Opko has beside some break through diagnostics items, A global footprint, is in roughly a dozen countries, with two Irish facilities, two Israeli facilities, 4 South American, Spain, Russian partnership, Canada, and am sure I missed a few. Opko sells products in OVER 40 countries.

    Opko will be generating far more cash than BRLI in roughly 18 months, 4 phase 3 drugs in late development, 2 filed, plus opko will own HALF of PFE's HGH franchise.

    The BRLI board saw an opportunity to develop opko's patents, and grow rapidly, with a buyer who is HANDS off.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 4, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    Thanks, umm, Just the facts, Joe Friday. If you ain't old enough, a dilemma.

  • " That detective is the right question, program terminated. " Brli had a pe half that of it's peers, third girl at a two girl dance. Talk about disrespect, yes they owned it in that niche. Opko offers those employees, and their share holders a chance to knock it out of the park, opk assets really offer them a big big shot. The kicker for BRLI is OPK has a drug pipe line that COULD/MIGHT generate some change, maybe 5-6B over 5 years.

    The opk home page has changed over my ownership of this company, but Frost did have a mission statement page. GOAL: Build a profitable world class diagnostics division that is profitable, that division will fund OPk research and development. Though the page is gone, it appears the plan is in tact.

    As an opk holder BRLI generates short term revenue and eps., positive.

    As a BRLI holder opko will generate 5 billion in sales before we get to 2 on our own, win win.

  • Upgrades are 12 month targets. If this deal goes through, WHICH I WANT REAL REAL BAD, it will be in under 90 days. So new price targets will encompass roughly Sept 2015-Sept 2016.

    Think what opk will likely have on the market over that time frame. HGH, Rolapitant, Rayaldee, 4k, psa, testosterone, vitamin D test spear headed by BRLI. Eirgen revenue, and possibly an EU launch for rayaldee.

    Opko will be profitable at that point with 1.5B in revenue. 25-30 is not out of line. I have not raised my target from 30, initially it was with Rayaldee approved in 2015, delays messed that up. 30 was without the Pfe deal too, and without the BRLI deal. My 30 has been based on revenue in the 1.2B range which figured a 10% penetration with Rayaldee but starting in 2015. The revenue will still be in that range even with the NDA delay, so I am keeping 30 as a very real 2016 PT if and only if the BRLI deal is done. The BRLI deal gets earnings and the revenue to about 1.3B-1.5B.

    So analysts, chime in early, no need to wait on the deal to close, get ahead of the crowd,well, that would be nice.

  • Reply to

    Hey Opkohealth where are you

    by busthercherry Jun 4, 2015 3:58 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 4, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    I never tout 100 a share, that would take roughly 2-3 b in revenue, eps in the 5 range. Then again, opko with this deal if finalized will have 1.5B revenue by late 2016, ummm, I might have to rethink how foolish a 100 pt is for late 2017, will have hgh ( pfe ) revenue, Rayaldee and Alfarin ( sp ), Rolapitant, Claros, their 4k, vitamin D, testosterone, lime, psa, tests being spear headed by BRLI, umm. Eirgen revenues, plus global launches of the big items. Yes it is a way out of line target, but things will change. I still think 30 by late 2016, we will see.

    If Rayaldee is the real deal, and garners 30-40% of that market, 100 is low, real low.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 4, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Every merger has a herd of lawyers who try to make a fast buck, it is meaningless. The better move is buy Brli, if you believe the deal gets done, otherwise buy opk.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 4, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    The ouch to the opk share price is people swapping out of opk into brli, obviously not all the volume, but some is Just that. 2.75 x opk share price shows about 5 dollar arbitrage gain, as of right now.

    Many did the same with the pbth deal, which we all remember. opko yanked back then too.

  • a subsidiary of Opko, taking OPKO lab under their umbrella. Not sure how they do this without making it a taxable event but good for the brli holders.

  • Should be very enlightening. Guarantee opko gets mentioned at least one time during Q&A.

  • Reply to

    Dilution

    by kenhshaw Jun 4, 2015 1:44 PM
    burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 4, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    They have treasury shares available, they are part of the 450 number, do not believe the 450 goes up, but they will buy with a portion from that 458. Float is about 244m, opk has 458-244 = 214 treasury shares that are authorized for situations like this.

  • burnaka@sbcglobal.net burnaka Jun 4, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    Google open transparent connected, put in opk in lookup, then filings.

ETP
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