Dr. Frosts big position goes back to when opko was first created by merging a few Frost shell companies which he owned a large position in. Options has been a %, but a small percent. He has been buying from day one.
Dr.Frost has gone over a month with no buys several times, only once was a buy out in the works. Generally the stock does well when Dr. Frost is not buying because shorts start to figure there MIGHT be a deal in the works. This last time the news was out, and why he was not buying was known.
If you are looking at yahoo estimates, notice in the current Q one analysts has not raised revenue numbers, appears the others have. One guy has revenue at 41m, which is a good estimate likely within 1-2m of what opko would have done without brli. Next Q all appear to have added the brli revenue. This Q, think we get 6 weeks of brli revenue, should be about 110 million, last Q brli did 223m, so I am figuring about 1/2, opk did 41m revenue, current q likely in the 150-160m range if it is indeed 6 weeks. Next Q dec., estimates average at 284million. which is likely too high by about 15m.
Brli revenue q/q has goes up and down by as much as 20m, but up y/y, so predicting brli revenue is a guess, no way to ever nail it down. Last Q it was obvious the expected eps. and revenue for opk was out of line with reality. When they start baking in 20% q/q revenue growth when nothing knew is driving revenue, you know
they are playing games.
Think this: BRLI shows only one analyst giving a revenue and eps estimate, and the guy was off base 1/2 the time, we now have 4, 3 of which have never " guessed " at brli numbers before, not best situation.
k9, buy oils this year for a 2016 rebound. SLB is the top rated oil play and dropped to a 52 week low on deal announcement, a buy of cam or slb works out in time, as opk.
Funny how that happens, stay short my friends, buyouts happen with no warning. Not HERE, NOT yet, but, stranger things have happened. You know, Bulls make money, bears make money sometimes anyway.
PS. They lawyers are on the job on that one too, lol.
Rather than cover when CAM was down 80% or so, umm they hogs were piling on. You know, bears make money, ooops, not that time, " Slaughter House 5 " instead. Vonneget, Kurt or is it " Billy Pilgrim ".
Yes Chuck I agree. Nice to see the timeline spelled out, adds clarity for opko longs, lol, and shorts too. It is great for new BRLI holders who might have felt Opko bought nothing to the dance. Without Brli, Opko's future or projected revenue must have seemed appealing compared to the slow but steady growth ( 10% annual ) at brli.
Opko down plays ie., basically never mentions preclinical items, mice studies, sheep, etc.. Dr. frost has stated in the past that many of those can not advance because finances need focus on late stage items, rather than spread limited resources over dozens of phase studies. As finances improve over the next year we can anticipate moving from animal trials to human safety trials on some of these unique higher risk higher reward items. Like Dravet syndrome med would be huge, but expensive undertaking that will likely get on line once we can afford it. The asthma drug too, we own a unique, advanced inhaler to pair with it.
Notice too the pipeline drugs anticipate US and EU approvals, and some Japan, so global footprint will have a big hand in revenue as drugs clear respective regulators.
PS. Note too that in the letter as they detail the status of each drug there is one thing common to near all. The commonality is the global scope, USA, SA, Europe, and Japan. These drugs are intended for export with global approvals anticipated, global orphan status, etc., already pending or done. It is easy to get a drug approved outside the US if the medical authorities there have given the GREEN ( pun ) light to phase studies as opposed to getting approval here, then asking. What happens in the later case is they can and do many times ask for further phase studies, or put you through hoops. Getting EU approval to market anything requires an EU approved facility too, we have Eirgen.
is the Claros device. As soon as the device is ready for prime time and approved they intend to develop many of the standard blood tests, and many on the brli proprietary tests focusing on men's and women's health.
The letter was the most comprehensive overview of the pipeline to date, outlining synergies between opko diagnostics and brli's diagnostics, and guiding toward a profitable path. Currently the diagnostics division is the big revenue generator, with brli contributing about 87% of revenue. In a couple years, Opko biologics and Renal divisions will be the main driver of revenues. Looking over the timeline/pipeline it appears by mid/late 2017 brli will only be contributing about 25% of revenue with biologics and renal as the growth engine contributing 75%.
So is Opko a diagnostics or a biotech company? Ummm, yes. Today diagnostics drives revenue, in a few short years diagnostics takes a back seat.
In the 10Q in the section titled consolidated balance sheet ( 2nd data set ) the last line lists the float. The catch is that number includes all options, and warrants, any share a note holder might buy. The total potential shares is also listed, for opk = 750M if every share were to be issued. Treasury stock, float, and free float.
So from the 10Q, float = 462,253,161 to that add the BRLI shares appx 76.8m = 539,053,161m+ a tad.
The significance of Frost owning so many shares should be obvious. First, those shares are counted in the float because they are indeed part of the float. Each Frost BUY shrinks what can be traded unless he sells. His share can not be borrowed to short or purchased to cover.
Mutual funds do usually allow their shares to be borrowed.
So figure out all insider shares, all fund shares and you can figure free float, or trading float in flipping accounts and retail longs. The catch is, no way to figure ALL options, and there are many shares in the hands of insiders that are employees. Eirgen ceo is not considered an insider but owns shares, ceo in Spain, Mexico etc., all own shares, etc.. and are not technically insiders, but might be bound by insider rules.
With intense insider ownership covering a short position can be an issue if the free float is small. Easier to short than cover. They have run this up shrinking the short number, but were able to run it down by expanding it. When the short number shrinks, those shares are no available to be reused. The run to 19 saw short interest go from 50's to low 40's and now back in 50's. Brli gave them more ammo. I think SI comes in near 70, we will see.
Last time he held a few long shares, but was a big net short. The long shares were a hedge because Frost owned so much of the float. Not sure of his position this time, he could easily be net short again, with another long position as a hedge. Well, that was how he explained the holdings when he did his SA attack.
Selling 75 million of new stock? They have almost 200 million cash in the bank, enough cash to cover R&D for 3-4 years. Now they do have an atm in place which they have historically used to cover R&D, but they might need not use it going forward.
I see no secondary at sec filings, so not sure where you see 75m in stock, sounds made up.
They are operating to grow a retail drug company, but given the right buy price which will come, they will sell out and let a bigger company sell their drugs. It will happen, first need to get an NDA, anything else is cart before horse.
It is down a lot from the high, same as opk. That said, phase 3 data due any time before year end. So in less than 90 days. Hope the results are better on this study than the last. Arry will hit teens if the phase 3 is positive from mid 5, or drop to 3-4 if bad. Risk reward is perfect. With over 40 phase studies one failed phase study is not as bad as with some companies, ie., the last failed study pushed it down about .35 but it then drifted down with market since mid July giving up about 1.50 or so. Could be best small cap biotech based on vast pipeline, time will tell.
A note: IF the phase 3 is good, Arry will be bought out in weeks/months, not years. One cash producer plus their pipeline makes them a great bolt on oncology company, maybe for PFE. I note pfe cause they have no mek inhibitor drugs.
This may have been posted here before, no way to know, so if it was, it is the condition of this message board that creates these type issues. Regardless, opk will share in those royalties. Appears TSRO plans on having Rolapitant in as many countries as possible, Opk can cover America South.