on an annualized basis will be north of 1 billion. UMM, BRLI projected for 1b in 2016 alone. Not sure how to figure 2016 revenue, BRLI will impact 4k sales in a major way. Rolapitant sales, Rayaldee sales for at least 1 quarter, TSRO milestone, Eirgen sales will also grow rapidly as they push in South America. The delay in Rayaldee NDA pushes that revenue out, but still figure we do 1.5B in 2016, over 2 billion in 2017, umm before any other mergers. Likely profitable post BRli merger, will need look at that, but profibale WAY sooner with this deal.
Upgrades are 12 month targets. If this deal goes through, WHICH I WANT REAL REAL BAD, it will be in under 90 days. So new price targets will encompass roughly Sept 2015-Sept 2016.
Think what opk will likely have on the market over that time frame. HGH, Rolapitant, Rayaldee, 4k, psa, testosterone, vitamin D test spear headed by BRLI. Eirgen revenue, and possibly an EU launch for rayaldee.
Opko will be profitable at that point with 1.5B in revenue. 25-30 is not out of line. I have not raised my target from 30, initially it was with Rayaldee approved in 2015, delays messed that up. 30 was without the Pfe deal too, and without the BRLI deal. My 30 has been based on revenue in the 1.2B range which figured a 10% penetration with Rayaldee but starting in 2015. The revenue will still be in that range even with the NDA delay, so I am keeping 30 as a very real 2016 PT if and only if the BRLI deal is done. The BRLI deal gets earnings and the revenue to about 1.3B-1.5B.
So analysts, chime in early, no need to wait on the deal to close, get ahead of the crowd,well, that would be nice.
Figure it this way, and you will get the price action, and weakness in both stocks, which quiet frankly, on the merits is not justified. After the deal was announced 100% of Brli shorts were under water. That was 16.07% of the float of Brli, ouch. EVERY one of those shares is still in the red, and hammering to get even.
Opk, umm, we know this one better. 50% owned by insiders, so of the 246.42 shares in the float, divide by two to eliminate insiders. This math equals 123.21m in the float, 35% of float short, and under water.
Obvious opko will benefit greatly revenue and eps. wise, for shorts this is their last stand, their Waterloo, Custer had better odds in his last stand.
The plan by opk shorts is push BRLI down enough opk will follow, the plan by brli shorts, push opk down enough brli will follow. Once pushed enough, and during this game, shorts will also buy one or the other long to attempt a break even point. So MANY of them though, makes it tough when all have the IDEA, get it lower, so we can cover.
Once this deal closes, which is still about 60 days away, shorts will not be toast, or road kill. They will be BURNT, trashed, gutter toast, putrid road kill, that gets absorbed into the tar pit we drive on.
Once this deal closes, those 35%, and 16% short group will find their losses double in under 6 months. THEY are as desperate as ever, and slamming these stocks hoping for capitulation to get out from under.
Doubt they can pull it off without losing significant money. Say this, they are now getting greedy, hoping to either make more or save more. The majority of retail opk longs will not fold, and we are the trump card or how I see it anyway.
Retail might not like this deal. I notice a few here claim they do not want to own opk, opk losing money etc., with no understanding of opk's pipeline or projected out year revenue. Do not use Yahoo for that info, they are way off.
Fact is retail only controls 3 million of 27 million shares, just over 10%, insiders control just under 10%, i'd say 8-9%.
Mutual funds control 22.3m shares 80%. That said not one of the 200 funds own very many shares, vanguard, the biggest holder only 1.8m.
My point is the largest holders here, vanguard, BX, dimensions, state street, mellon bank, ALL own OPKO TOO, but their position in OPKO is far far larger. Vanguard as an example owns only 1.8m here, but owns almost 14m in opk, BX owns only 1.5m here, but over 10m in opk.
The bottom line is it is in these funds interest to go along with the deal, in the long term they know they will make out far better, plus it protects their investments.
eps. guidance for 2015-2016 with the assumption the deal is done. New targets can be found in Yahoo estimates. There is a HUGE discrepancy between the two analysts, of 200m on revenue, and eps. for 2016. One person has a .25 loss, the other a .19 gain. I guesstimated it at .06-.08 gain. The next Opk earnings with Eirgen in the mix, and the next brli ( monday ) will get us more solid info.
How can these two guys look at the same info and one show a .25 loss and one a .19 profit? Why a 200m revenue discrepancy to boot? The guy showing the profit and bigger revenue is making assumptions on pending NDA applications, the other is saying, until approved I am not factoring in Rayaldee or Rolapitant.
Opko derivatives ( the notes ) account for a sizable portion of opk losses, non cash paper losses, I toss those out. On average opko really has been in the -.06-.08, some higher, some lower, even one break even, loss range most Q's. Brli will contribute appx .05 each q next year getting us to roughly even. Keep in mind this is BEFORE 4k ramp up, Rayaldee Q4 launch, Rolapitant mile stones and royalties. These items take us from break even to my guesstimate of .06-.08 easily and conservatively. Think that .19 the analyst has is in line with reality. If it is the LTS analyst, well you know, he talked to someone.
from 650, to 5,000 employees. Talk about a growing by chunks. Not sure how the 4,400 or so brli employees are deployed, hope there are many in sales and marketing. Noticed they are in a hiring mode too with roughly 108 openings. Opko lists 19, 127 combined. Opko lists 8 sales jobs in territories the overlap brli operations, so those can get filled easily now. Brli is listed as 43 out of top 100 companies with market cap under 1b, in 2014, this rank is based on eps, sales growth, and a couple other metrics.
Opko, 48m appx, up 4.1m, brli down 460k appx, at 4m. Not sure if this info has been posted since this board is dominated by a few useless sickos. I am not going to go and wade through 7-8 ignored pages to see if a real person posted this info. If they have, and you were able to actually read it, sorry for the reposting of old info.
Every one has heard the phrase buy the rumor sell the news. When you buy the rumor, the news gets baked in, so when the news hits, you many times get a drop. Is this not a known?
Many expecting a sell the news play, might short on up days heading into the news, as noted, short interest inched up 2m recently.
An anomaly happens in this scenario when the sell the news never materializes. In that situation when the stock inches up, or fails to drop, it is prudent to cover. Guess much of today's action is the short the rumor group, being forced to cover on the news, well one explanation, but am sure there are many.
We certainly have been bombarded here with the cake group, ie., Rayaldee news is BAKED in. Guess not all of it, I think the shorts are putting Frost-ing on this cake, UMMM, pun intended.
Just a thought on Eirgen, they have the EXPERTISE to gets the filings done in the 40 countries they now serve and have gone through those hurdles before. Eirgen will HAVE to be the one to manufacture Rayaldee for those countries because their facility is certified to do so. Think they will help on the filings outside the US, it is their strong suit. The Eirgen acquisition appears very timely. Hope it gets mentioned Wed.
OK., back of the envelope 2016, this acquisition based on projections provided to yahoo by analysts, Opko turns cash flow positive in 2016, earning no less than .06 or roughly 27 million. This is with no increase in 4k sales due to this purchase. Can be much higher depending on Rayaldee initial sales, Eirgen growth, Rolapitant, etc., but this is a good conservative base for projected profit. 2017, EPS. will be driven by Rayaldee, so not even going to estimate.
feeling giddy. Stock splits, heading to 20-22 by Friday, up after hours, rsi no problems, Frost not buying in three days, must be buy out, etc, etc.etc. Get a grip, every % move is only a point on the number line. Goes down three days world is not going to end either. If perchance opk hits another new high tomorrow, 5 in a row, that ties the old record of 5 in a row. 4 to this point ain't shabby either. Note, today the volume did decline even though we did hit a new high. NEED the volume to head back up or we start basing here. That 5th high in a row, umm, the tough one. Odds are we get a small pull back, but I want to see that 5th high,
The good news is maybe some of the fantasy about buy outs and stock splits might subside. Hint, that is not going to happen, lol.
new closing high, also a new milestone. What is different between these two bull runs? In the first run back in Jan, the daily average range was at most .40, the biggest gain .51, but most about .25. This new run the average range is .70,, this range is 75% bigger. THINK about that.
Why would a stock that traded in a daily range of 40-50 all of a sudden have a range on two occasions over 1.00 in a 7 day span? Average just over .70 for the first time ever?
There is one obvious answer why the stock hits 5 new highs, and the daily range more than doubles. BUYERS want in, and now, and there are very few sellers, or big enough blocks of available short shares to stop the move.
Do not be shocked if we trade flat, or up a few pennies tomorrow. Weaker hands are gone, whoever this group of buyers was/is, they have proven new high, no problem.
The only other choice is a short fund being forced to close shop, or this position, regardless of losses.
This move was different, there was a ton of CONVICTION.
Found it interesting that Opko Israel manufactures many of the raw components used by Eirgen in making their generic drugs. So Opko will be able to cut out the middleman and produce the drugs from start to finish boosting margins.
I also noted the stock portion of that deal, with this recent run, as of the close is up 7.7 million. Talk about perfect timing. Now that gives true meaning to the phrase, " the Luck of the Irish."
Every share shorted is still under water and has been since May 13th, which covers 14 trading days.
This is a good thing.
Old high 18.88, set yesterday new high 19.20, a 1.69% move a slightly higher percent move than the move to 18.88 ( an 1.497% ) advance. New all time closing high in the 19 range, talk about a hard 8. Closing high, 19.12 old closing high 18.62, a 2.69% advance.
Opko announced the Rayaldee NDA late on May 29th. Opk actually closed down that day .06, it's second consecutive down day, for a combined loss of .21, closing out at 17.68.
Buster announced for all he was scared, a sell the news event, was happening, oh brother.
Since Monday Opko has hit three new highs, for an 8.59% move off of last Friday's close of 17.68.
19.12-17.68 = 1.44 average .48 each day, Today .50.
7 consecutive all time highs is the record, not thinking we do that again, but margin calls give you a three day window, so those that got calls Monday covered today, those getting calls Tues, cover tomorrow. You see how it can keep rolling over, no shock we had 7 back to back new highs.
Not even saying calls are pushing the stock, but do believe this 8.59% move in 3 days has forced a few stop loss buyers from the astute short trader. I know, I know, ASTUTE short trader is an oxymoron, but I was feeling kind.
" That detective is the right question, program terminated. " Brli had a pe half that of it's peers, third girl at a two girl dance. Talk about disrespect, yes they owned it in that niche. Opko offers those employees, and their share holders a chance to knock it out of the park, opk assets really offer them a big big shot. The kicker for BRLI is OPK has a drug pipe line that COULD/MIGHT generate some change, maybe 5-6B over 5 years.
The opk home page has changed over my ownership of this company, but Frost did have a mission statement page. GOAL: Build a profitable world class diagnostics division that is profitable, that division will fund OPk research and development. Though the page is gone, it appears the plan is in tact.
As an opk holder BRLI generates short term revenue and eps., positive.
As a BRLI holder opko will generate 5 billion in sales before we get to 2 on our own, win win.
Looking at brli share count, if opk holders pick up 11m shares the deal is done, the float is that small. I would rather own opk as a stand alone than brli as a stand alone. I would not flip out of opk just in case the deal gets voted down. Need opk holders to buy BRLI to impact the vote. I know several have, but unfortunately they are dumping OPK to do so, not good, IT hurts the likely hood the deal gets pushed through and plays into a class suit by brli holders.
Thanks Momentum, Good presentation.
It shows up at Yahoo estimates, and elsewhere, but they do not show the firm. I know it is LTS, and the market ignores LTS opk upgrades, though they have been the most accurate. Forbes mentioned LTS giving the highest revenue number in 2016, so I figure they are the high NEXT Q too, but they are way high in MHO, which will mean a likely revenue miss. The high revenue number this Q actually which ends next week is at 50.9m, low at 38.1m, avg of 44.73. Fact is if all went right, Mex, and Spain got back on track, Ireland stays steady, opk at best does 42m, so I expect a slight miss. LTS, 21 by year end, well, that is quite possible.
buyout at over 100 premium. Sad, sad, to say the least. Ok, I said my prayer, but doubt it will help the poor guy that lost everything, wife, kids, house, on his 10k share short gamble.
Though shorts obviously are impacting the move think about that for a second. When did the move start, and why did it start? If you figure that out you will know why opk has legs.
I will help. First this move started May 6, Opk has only had one down day since May 6th, and that day it dropped .01.
WHY, WHY? WHY the 6th. IVAX. YES IVAX. That might seem a strange disjointed answer. What was IVAX? A generic player Frost developed and sold, correct.
EIRGEN, is a generic company founded by former IVAX employees. FROST is reentering generics. Since this news was announced on the 5th, Opko has been up 9 of 10 days, one down day a penny.
Then add to that new opk angle, the revenue beat, which trumped the eps. miss, and the firmed up time lines, the possibility that Eirgen's Saudi partner has upped their opk stake, shorts and fund buying, and here we are.
Up 9 of 10 days, biggest pull back since we bought a generic company, .01.
So when the run stops, we base, then run on NDA. Mark this.