Though last year IT was difficult to get shares to short that is not currently the case. The 63 million share dilution from the PROLAR deal added roughly 25 million to the float, the balance of that 63M was owned by Frost and friends. That said there are still 15 million from that dilution out there. Once that is in the RIGHT hands or shorted, the shares available to short again becomes a problem.
I got on the computer this AM, checked some charts, read over conference calls, checked out volumes, prices etc., had coffee. Checked a few message boards, Got to the OPK board to have 2.5 pages of IGNORED posts. Spent an extra minute ignoring a few I had missed, saw fourms 200 post and had to laugh. YES ignored is at an all time HIGH. Worst board at yahoo.
Frost has given away to charity more money than he has put into some obscure company called OPKO, WAKE UP. Charity vs OPKO about EVEN.
No bryan, the bull raid on bozza ran opk to 12.95, his raid bought it back down, in the end game you and he lose. Think, Frost lives on an Island, Soros and Ican are dinner guests, clowns not invited, but like Dr. Frost said, he gives away a 100 million a year to the TREELESS, get in line. I bet IT is MORE than 100M he gives away, more than your loser boss is DOWN, lol.
Opko should get to this 2 billion sales number by 2017 in diagnostics, I know it seems a LONG way off, But IT is really SHORT term.
My 2016 opko Diagnostic PROJECTION is only 75% J&J, but that would = current cap or more.
J&J has asked JPMorgan Chase & Co to run the sale and is preparing to send detailed financial information in coming weeks to potential buyers, including some of the world's largest private equity firms and a number of healthcare companies, the people said.
Early estimates suggest the unit's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization are between $400 million and $500 million, suggesting a possible valuation of roughly $5 billion, the people said.
The unit, whose tests are considered older and less profitable than modern molecular diagnostics that examine gene mutations for signs of disease, has annual sales of about $2 billion.
I would bet Lakeweed is covering anything below 8.50. Though they shorted in the 4's they averaged up to their Chagrin, but loaded when the last BULL raid PUSHED opko over 12. They could have even precipitated that which is the theory I put out there, for all, month or so ago. Follow Bryan's new break even price, he is their hired DOPE. I do not mean do as that no position 10 buck an hour fool, but he gets his orders from others.
Billionaires see some small know nothing guy shorting a stock they can BULL rush it to crush the FOOL, or the FOOL can know his cash position, and BULL rush the stock himself and, DOUBLE DOWN on the short to create a down trend in the chart. I think though MORon/BOZZA is not a loan WOLF short, HIS short here and NO help tsla caused his insanity attacking OPK.
I would not be surprised if he( BOZZO ) LOST a TON on IDI, Tiger media, as a Novice/ or even a college kid, and BLAMES FROST. After all there was indeed a lawsuit. If it was a scam, FROST owned more than anyone? If a scam they could/should have filed BK. THE court found all innocent and the founders are BOUND and DETERMINED to make that work. We may never know IF clown boy invested there but, I have more theories, but that one fits into BOZZO losing even on his first pick, so I like IT. THAT and HE screams about it in his garbage SA articles, which is why he keeps under performing. He gets attached.
what a wasteland, I mean I IGNORE a dozen a day just to stay CURRENT. OPKO will do no less than 800M-1B by year end 2016 get the #$%$ over it. THERE is pennies of profit LEFT here, WHAT a CLOWN oops that is redundant, I forgot BOZZO.
I just looked over each of these drugs briefly. Google the drugs name + side affects, No comparison to Rayaldy from an efficacy or safety profile. Each drug has their own little recipe of disasters that could happen, no WONDER the good Dr. likes Rayaldy so much.
Opko is at the point where they now have to deliver on their Diagnostics strategy which will start rolling out in March, with two more tests by Q 3 ?? I expect initial roll out to be slow but will build up steam each Q and I expect 2014 revenue TO DOUBLE and OPKO to have at LEAST ONE profitable Q this year. I see 14-15 by year end which is based on accelerated revenue growth heading into 2015, short term I hope we BASE RIGHT HERE until launch of 4k. I think if OPKO CAN get revenue to 220-240m a double of 2013 revenue, 14-15 is warranted and the shorts will be longs, lol.
EVERY LONG thinks that, lol. Based on what 30% undervalued??? Based on the BULL RAID attacking the shorts and spiking this to 12.95, or on earnings and revenue ? I do not look at either revenue or earnings because if I did I would sell. I look at revenue DOUBLING year over year for two years and the current pipeline, and Claros launches. Rayaldy is closest drug and not until 2016, so I am fine with OPKO basing right here.
The BIG MOVES were funds either beating up the shorts, followed by the shorts beating up the longs, none of the BIG moves were from OPKO events, that is WHAT NEEDS happen.
OPKO GOT WAY AHEAD of itself on two BULL RAIDS, as LONGS we forget those and only see LAKEWEEDS bear raid.
Go to the most recent presentation they list the current competition to Rayaldy as,
Drisdol™* Ergocalciferol (vitamin D2)
Rocaltrol™* Calcitriol (1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3)
Hectorol™ Doxercalciferol (1α-hydroxyvitamin D2)
Zemplar™* Paricalcitol (19-nor-1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D2)
If you do a little DD you can find the revenue of each, which is or is going to be generic, and you will see the revenue decline which from what I found was attributed to medicare medicaid.
Rayaldy will pass phase 3, that is a given. There are other issues the bears point to regarding Rayaldy, some are valid. Medicare/medicaid have cut back on what they will and won't pay for dialysis, and have capped the payment. The biggest competitive drug for Rayaldy saw revenue get cut more than HALF from about 1 billion to about 400 million. There is another drug going generic, and a competing drug that has filed their NDA in with the FDA.
All this said, not one of the competing drugs or new drug is as good as Rayaldy, however the cap in place by some insurance carriers has reduced the total PIE. The fact RAYALDY is the only drug for this indication that DOES NOT raise serum calcium gives Rayaldy a MAJOR edge. There are many patients who currently take no medication at all, either for insurance cap reasons, or because of the calcium issues they create. So that is an untapped market that could really use the product.
Not sure where all these lofty price targets are coming from, 500, 50 mid year, etc., the price will follow the earnings and revenue with a few spikes and valleys along the way. Opko will be doing well to get to 1 billion revenue by year ending 2016 which is 10X current, and at that revenue should get over 30 bucks. Remember opko has a lot of shares 4 X compared to say regn.
The guy talking about Rayaldy almost sounded COCKY he was so sure of the drug, the patent protections, how BIG the uptake WILL really be. He DID DO an awesome job explaining AWAY the WEAKNESSES of any other treatment and HOW PERFECTLY Rayaldy corrects the PTH levels.
My target is lower than all of your numbers, BUT way higher than Bryans. Claros, 4k, rolapitant, rayaldy all have to deliver. So how we get to 45 this year I have no clue??? At 1 billion revenue 30 is the most likely Pt, so a target of 45 anticipates a revenue between 1.5-2 billion in six months? I know Future revenue, but 45 not happening. If we exit 2014 with 220-240 million and at 14-15 Opko will be on target for 1b revenue by year ending 2016.
This conference the slides did a better job defining the benefit of Rayaldy, and why it will be used. A key point mentioned is the patents involved, and how no other drug will likely be able to enter as a competitor. The speakers all were more concise and thorough in their presentations. When DOES ZEBRA go public, lol, Frost seemed pumped about their technology.
This recent 4k study is for that purpose so news on insurance will not likely come until the study is done. This test was validated in over 10K subjects so it should be a slam dunk, but then who knows. In the most recent interview it was stated they anticipate a March launch of 4k, and Frost has stated the study was going well.
In England as of a month or so ago it was NOT covered by nat insurance which likely hurt roll out. I believe the price is 280 bucks, where psa, which is covered is only 50 bucks. My take, and I could be wrong, is that 4k EU is only about 1m annual sales ( to OPKO ) but has been growing steadily.
I doubt much new news will be released at the conference, but interim data on 4k would be a nice bit of info.
I gave my opinion at the end of that article. Look at the massive spike in short interest here, take into account a near or over 1/3 share dilution, VZ will weaken. I hold no current position, but have owned VZ many times over the past 20 years and plan on buying again post merger. The author makes too many assumptions and one is that FUNDS holding VOD will sell post conversion. The usual arbitrage play is to short the acquirer, and short interest is UP 30 million shares. Those funds looking to exit vod have a prime opportunity to do so with the stock within 1-2% of it's high. I expect weakness post merger in VZ to be short lived, but with an additional billion shares what is fair value for vz??? I have time to figure that out, but I expect to buy closer to 40, WE WILL SEE. I think weakness in the Feb 24th time frame to only be an additional 2-3% not the 10% the author at SA anticipates. Funds will step in to buy the higher yield. I know I will.
The synergies you mention is the ONE area where OPKO has done a PHENOMENAL job. It goes understated and vastly overlooked. The Claros device is in ten languages, the company did not list those languages. The US launch will be the global model. South American launch follows the US launch, then Russia, Europe and Israel. Though we have an research facility in Chinese Taipei, not sure it is set up to launch 4k, but that would be good. Even if 4k uptake is slow initially and the global launch takes a year, the combined global income could be substantial. The niche OPKO is trying to carve out is the global urology market, these tiny pharma companies we own, that many ignore, is the key to this success. As a group the pharma division is profitable but currently the revenue and profit is small, revenue in the 100M annual range. If 4k doubles that, then psa doubles it again, and testosterone test ( the biggest revenue generator ) doubles it again over the 2014-2016 time frame, those tests should generate 600-800 million. A weak performance would be 200-300m, but still puts Opko within striking range of 1 b revenue by year ending 2016 and a 30 pt.