As always, Ignore the noise is what I do best. Sort of, I take weeks to make a buy, even missing runs, but if it takes that long TO understand a company, and I miss a little, oh well. Called investing my time, not wasting it. Once a decision is made, if fundamental stay good or better, no reason to listen to noise. Weeks to get in, years til I sell.
I missed a 2.00 move on opko, from 2,50 to 4.50 before I put one toe in, so I am about deaf to noise here, cost sub 4.00, of course it tanked from 4.50, lol, which was GREAT.
Surprised not shocked to see bac up, obviously analysts did not quite lower their projections enough. I will take the MOVE, as it lends down side support. Need that next push for that extra 7% move. Should get there by ccar.
Opk, as stated yesterday, today likely a down day, but three higher bottoms. 11.07 is short term top, but not a wall, a mirage of one, created by BIG FOOT. Moderate support at 10.80 but is sitting just below it right now. Usually, of course not always, OPK will settle the day plus .05-.10 of an intra day line, up or down. So 10.70-10.90 is close pattern, see how that goes, options might exert to down side. Still in a basing pattern here, but expect it to get over 11, and bas a second time likely starting next week, 10.90-11.15 type of thing.
Opk does tend to spend about 13-15 trading days in a tight basing range before a move up or down. 10 days in the 10's, 11 next week if pattern holds. Bid 10.78, needs late day push to get back to upper end of day range, not looking too likely, but not counting it out.
I was joking about the chess, unless it is at a bordello, count me out. Though I have played chess, umm, but not in 20 years. Now darts, umm, I played in Dart leagues for a few years, and have attended and played in several major sponsored tournaments. Never won in any of the real big ones, but took a 1st with a good partner in a smaller regional. Vodka is my drink of choice, but ALAS, Dr. says I can not drink it, and I never miss it, sad too, cause we were best buds, (pun ) think king of beers, my other best bud.
CL, I need get the HE-double-LL's out more. Sitting home reading a 10k for amusement, guy needs have a more wild time than that. Find a game of CHESS ??? That could do it, shakes head, turns on Yankee game. OH, thanks for the praise, but just passing time without wasting it.
PS.when I said in the last paragraph this year only a 4-5 loss, that was a quarterly annualized estimate. Could be as high as 12m, opk at 19, or 1-2m if opk trades about 11-12, of course if OPK is at 50 or 100, lol, the LOSSES will mount up quickly on paper. Just throughing that 50-100 out there for fun. Please save the in 2 years, umm, maybe 7 or so, we will see.
The good is a major portion of this loan or of the notes has been converted, ie. paid off. From 2013-201, roughly 41% were converted, from 2013 to 2015, 78% has been converted leaving 22% left to convert. Why is this important other than as the notes converted dilution took place?
First was the large influx of cash at the time of the offering, old news, but enough cash that Opk has not used it all for sure. Secondly, that dilution is history. Interesting to note the Run from April through June in 2015 corresponded with the 2015 conversion. They MADE out just before the Run to 19, umm, Coincidence or big foot?
Third, because of how the notes are set up, and the derivative aspect. Opko has been taking big paper hits to EPS, that SWING up or down, but mostly up, as the price of the common increases. In 2014 the hit to earnings was about 12m, opk traded in the 7-9 range. 2015 opk took a 36m hit to earnings stock traded 8-19 range. With only 22% of notes left, 63% fewer than last year, the hit to earnings will be 63% less. So at 19 the loss on paper would only be about 12m not 36m as last year.
Interesting to note, and this is the WHOLE point of this, SHOULD delete EVERYTHING a give one sentence, but like to show the MATH. Opko FULL year 2015 loss was = 30 million down from 171m in 2014, WOW. The bigger WOW is it WAS a loss BASED on derivatives. Reported derivate loss on loan/notes = 36m annual loss 30m, back out derivatives, Opko MADE MONEY last year. WITH so many notes converted NOW, that loss will now be at best 4-5m. So have at it, just more pie in sky noise by a long. UMM, BASED on 10k, not my opinion. Remember car 54.
Highlow, you make a living, or so it has always appeared to me, lol, trading bac, so you know far more than I do about how it will trade. That said, 15 is only about a 10% run from here, and think it can get there by CCAR if/when they are allowed to raise the divi, ditto on C getting bac to about 50, which is heavier lifting. If they paid out what they, IMHO wasted on buy backs share holders would be far better off.
Would like to see bac get that 10% churn up this Q, but not BANKING ( pun ) on it.
Highlow, I for ONE am more curious about your bac calls, but have not had time to follow, lol. Bad trader I am, I still need 15 to get back to even, and if earnings are bad, I will likely be waiting on ccar or the fed, but think it does EVENTUALLY get to that number, and eventually to BV. Opk, well, I have been here a while so I ignore the tic tic other than to post for fun about it. Every stock has a DNA, a pattern it likes to follow, If when BAC hits 15, it could then easily hit 17, after a slow churn up, as is deeply ingrained in it's trading pattern.
Rosh the IDEA of most pain at 10.50 is a nice thought, and though options USUALLY do expire worthless, NO ONE would EVER buy them NOT EVEN one of them if it was ALWAYS MOST pain, on occasion it is not. THAT is why there is an options market in the first and last place. I have been painting the obvious, umm, real obvious moves here since the FDA bottom, and as LUCK would have it, my calls have been dead on. Not CAUSE I know stocks, or the stock market, or cause I am a good trader or any such non sense. I do know opk however, and HOW this one case study acts. With a few pointers on support and resistance from higlow it has been even easier. He is giving you a book but you are chewing the pages, listen to his TA, then try to duplicate it YOURSELF.
Tomorrow should be a pull back day, me thinks, and I know I will read about 10.50 again, and it is not 100% off the table, maybe only 80% off the table. Fact is, as far as the chart goes, not even highlow can tell you pr guess at tomorrows move, without having todays close and range.
The trend is up, should get to 11's as I stated else where, when, no one can know for sure, but it DOES look that way if I just pay attention to support lines and ignore options, or some other metric that I might WISHFULLY hope to see, that umm, does not exist except in a book. You know the sentence where it said, most pain....
So I did not get my wish on Monday for a close in the 10.88 area after the gap close at 11.07. It did close at 10.75, up only .02, but up non the less. The hedge funds can paint the picture of a short term top, as they did at 10.50 hoping that TA traders line up to help their position. As stated in another thread, it was a false top, and failed and is now support. Of course that is a heavy option line, so why not paint there? We have since last Thurs. had 4 higher closes as the slow grind continues. The weak support area Mon. 10.88 has acted as weak resistance, failing to get there yesterday, but tapping through it today. Still want a close above 10.88 to set up the push back into the 11.07 resistance area. Friday, or next week, not sure, but as stated above it would be a slow chug and churn as shorts are pensive at this point. ADD, Cover??? This exact area 11 was a source of REAL pain for many a few months back, so we shall see. I still think Opk is basing, grinding up, and will base a second time in the 11-11.25 area before inching to the 11.50-12 area to base even longer before the next leg up. Just my take, could be right, or not, but things point this as QUITE possible.
CL, like my dad use to say, IT is great to be convinced about what you know, or think you know, it is all the other stuff you do not see that will total your car. If you knew everything, you would of seen that car coming. That applies and can be true of the market. HEDGE funds have been closing at a record pace for 5 years because they were POSITIVE about EVERY thing they KNEW, it was what they did not know that shut their doors. Guess not their fault, getting blindsided by arrogance I mean.
You asked a question that I see many responded to, but NOT one person answered the question. The shorts got clobbered as EVERY single short, all of them were under water until JUNE. Short interest dropped about 2 mill every two weeks pushing the stock up to daily NEW highs starting in Feb, and peaking in June. Short interest hit a 2+ year low, RETAIL GOT DESTROYED. That IS A fact that can be verified by over lapping price and the multiyear short data available at UNCLES DUE DILIGENCE web site.
Those thinking the OS shares are too high, need take into count that of the 545 os, ONLY HALF or less are in THE FREE float. The Insiders OWN the OTHER half.
The Run started Dec 2014, post pfe news, gained steam when earnings were a surprise beats , and got the final push to 19.20 on the Rayaldee NDA news. Shorts were adding back to the now lower short position, and PILED on when the BRLI news was announced, some shorting brli as a proxy.
MOST here yap their position, but fact is opk had the PFE news, and Rayaldee new FINALLY BAKED in at 17-19, and shorts COULD NOT find shares to short, well at like 12% fees. BRLI deal SAVED those who had not covered, the DILUTION gave them the needed shares to save their DEEPLY under water positions.
There are a ton of unknowns, but things are getting far more dangerous than many of these chest pumping shorts could imagine. 4k sales were doubling weekly, analysts Rayaldee estimates are based on the 2-3 competing drugs which umm, will become extinct. Not calculated in is the 2/3 of the CKD patients that TAKE NONE of the 2-3 competing drugs because of the side affects.
So can OPKO get back to 19, sure, will not even need short interest to hit a 2 year low again. Will it happen, YES, not sure how fast the market will do it though. I think it could be by late this year, umm, if THE FDA gets off their bottom.. Earnings and Revenue will beat, and grow and double by year ending 2017.
Price will rise as revenue doubles..
since the stock bottomed on the fda announcement at 9.83. Yes a slow chug and churn, 2-3 steps up, 1-2 back but the gap closed today, taking 9 trading days, did I say chug and churn. As stated last week, the gap close was expected by Wed. or earlier this week, so it is earlier. So at this point the crystal ball gets cloudy, but I anticipate a few days of consolidation, in the 10.80-11.07 area before opk establishes a basing pattern around 11.50, and yes, those options do what most options do cause pain or no gain. A close in the 11-11.20 area might take a bunch more chug and churn, but best I can figure from the trading pattern think it establishes that area as a short term floor sooner than later, by Fri,or early next week. Thinking range bound a few days, with slow, slow grind up, unless news or market forces say otherwise. Bid 10.92, moderate support at 10.88, hoping today for at or above that level on close. GL to all longs, short, check out the chart.
Well, the suit could end tomorrow with a tiny amendment to the deal KW gave himself. He could just state that the guaranteed cash portion of .11 will never exceed the common distribution. He could then say, the preferred shares can not grow at a rate any higher than the common distribution, and that is that. He WON"T, his deal states the heck with everyone, KW gets paid first, even if the distribution needs be eliminated. KW OWNS tons of this stock, so he is saying you all may get no distro, but I am a billionaire, I rigged a deal for myself where I can corn pop you, leave you broke, while my billions grows uninterrupted. I think ETE holders should sue too, this is beyond devious, it is theft, but only if he, umm, ete cuts/eliminates distro. Think WMB sees that AS a BIG possibility, so a suit.
PS. He knew WMB would NOT agree to HIS scheme to completely dilute the stock premerger, this was a scam deal KW is trying/pulled off.
I say ete holders should sue too, and I am long this stock. He is DOUBLE dipping big time.
Just red the sec filing, WMB did the RIGHT thing suing ete. KW Kelsey Warren guarantees himself two things in that deal, created zero risk situation for himself. Other share holders left out to dry if there is a distribution cut or elimination. KW quaranteed himself a current cash distribution of .11 regardless of distribution. He also guaranteed the preferred shares grow at the current distribution amount of .28. So post merger, cut or eliminate the distribution below .28 or to even zero, he gets his. His are also guaranteed before the common, BAD BAD deal for wmb holders and ETE holders. THIEVERY is what it is, well, could be if the distro is slashed or eliminated, and guess what, both are a possibility, and WMB sees that, and caught how KW basically said, I MIGHT cut your DISTRO, but not mine.
full well a cut is likely happening shortly or post merger. It is a two part guarantee: Warren is postponing part of his cash and guaranteed ONLY .11 per share according to the terms of the deal. If the distribution is slashed to .10 what then? The 2nd guarantee is that the convertibles increase in value each Q by the current .28 level regardless if the distribution is cut to zero or a dime. So I do not Blame WMB for this suit at all, Warren and friends guaranteed themselves no less than the current distribution and the average holder and WMB holders GET whatever Warren, umm, ete decides. At first glance I thought Warren was doing a good thing for holders, guaranteeing the merger, addressing debt, etc.. Looking over the Sec. filing I now see what WMB is up in arms about.
My take away is KW took care of KW guaranteeing his quarterly distribution with his risk at ZERO. Common holders are left holding the bag here, likely a half full bag. The good news, if there is any is that the distribution likely stays above .11, or at .11 if cut. KW's guarantee on the cash portion. His conversion however increases by the full .28, he should be forced to dissolve this thing, not good for anyone but umm, KW.
Ibb down again today, xbi down again, Opko bucking the trend in the Bio sector takes conviction or a few individuals being TOLD to buy. YTD Opk up near 7%, IBB down 18%+, makes for a choppy climb. 4 days with rising bottoms and tops, over the 10.49 wall, hit 10.88, cruising past 10.70, closing at 10.73. YDT opk out performing sector by 25%, should get to that 11.07 resistance area no later than next wed. as usual, opk does not trade in a vacuum, market needs stay mild. Though opk was up or flat when market lost 200, the over all market delays the move by a day or so.
Volume hanging in the 3.5m area while moving up is good for longs, REALLY good for longs, think on that. Why that is so good, a hint, opk does HAVE a back log of BUYERS who DO NEED buy, and have not or can not on lower volume days. :)~
Should have read, NOTE the rising bottoms. As an aside, IAB upped the rope to 1.4m available. Funds covering trying to help retail out is a likely reason. The chart says 11 shortly ( pun) ( PUN ) ( pun ) some hedgies are covering and stepping aside.
YTD opk up 18% IBB down 6.7% a 24-25% beat, not bad. Ht that 10.70-10.75 area, held above 10.48, which is new support, hope we get a late day run to end in that .70-.75 zone. That puts 11 in opk's site tomorrow or early next week. Opk does not trade in a vacuum, market tanking so hard holding it back a tad, BUT REALLY a great showing to hang in here. Expect it to close in this area, 10.65-10.75, not the rising bottoms, and pressure on tops.
Regardless of his position, my point was to not have to keep reading posts about volume, lol. Volume taken out of historical context, is meaningless. Think he is relatively new to the market too, so knowing a few concepts can be dangerous.
Relatively new = 5-8 years.
You can read volume precedes uptrends in any book, and then think it applies to every stock, and be wrong cause you read a book. My idea is stock DNA, not in any book, a concept developed over past 25 years, along with my dart method, and ignoring support resistance lines theory. LOL, read about em, BOY they can cost ya, until you can SEE the big picture.