Fact is it sure took too long to get the thing filed, umm, to give us a new, new, new NDA filing date. This is indeed the third NEW nda date. That said, if you looked at the study, umm, unless they truly mess up info in the filing, it is as sure a slam dunk to get approved as I have ever seen. FDA requires .05 or better for approval of a drug, this was better than .001. Basically works 100% of the time on 100% of the patients with no side effects.
As far as not bashing, reread your posts, notice how splat agrees with near all of them. That says it all. So if that individual is your only cheerleader, I guess you have the rest of us hoodwinked.
Love those red thumbs, I guess the post hit home if it was even red, oops, I mean read. Obviously my red thumbed friends would rather not undertake a serious discussion about the post, but I get it.
So all shorts are underwater, all longs profitable. Do we get a 1-2% pull back, or do we hit another new high? Fact is no one knows, all have their own preference based on long or short position. Many times these moves continue on day three early if margin calls kick in and can extend an additional day or two of upside. A 9.58% loss might be too much for some shorts to handle, the high volume today says some capitulation. This same 9.58% move might be too temping for short term swing traders to ignore, so this might get us a slight pull back.
Tomorrow could be interesting.
Shorts were counting their money before the bank opened based on the eps. miss. So what happened?
The key take away I got was the massive spike in the cash position. SOLID dates on 4k reimbursement, solid dates on Rayaldee NDA, SOLID dates on Rolapitant approval. ALL future revenue generators that could LEND tail winds to more new highs. The two kickers in the call were first, the REVENUE beat, 7m, a BIG BEAT, second the discussion about Ergin, which will FURTHER enhance revenues. If they hold steady, no increase from 4k insurance, Mexico and Spain stay soft, revenue will grow Y/y by 40%. This 40% growth also does not take into account royalties or milestone payments from Tesaro. SO 40% Y/y growth is obviously VERY low.
So do we go higher tomorrow? There are good reasons we could. Do we take a pause on profit taking? Both are equally likely. That said the wind is at our back, opko might not be that tug boat, as Miami suggests, but a sail boat catching an updraft.
Those here long enough remember that one, " I will cover and go long if it ever closes solid above 8 " put forth when opko was in the 7.00 range. Might see a double hard 8 sooner than later. 16 is closer than 8, wrong for 8 points. OK a nonsense post, I am allowed based on the 1,000's of that type here every week.
Me too, I lost badly, got crushed, lol, I had the second lowest guess, one person lower, you all know who. I love when I lose like this.
Presentation available at arry website.
So I am going to go out on a limb here and say the chances are better than 50% that opk has a new closing high. Like to see it about 15.50, and establish some time in in a new 15 range before the NDA announcement later this month.
Usually there is a line it dances around for a couple of hours, then you get late profit takers to knock off a few cents, so I look for that line, and guess. Today it is trading differently, unless 15.40 is the line, if so it will close in the 15.33 area, but with every new holder profitable, and every short under water, I went lower figuring a late day sell off. By 2:00 we will have a clearer picture. Could pop higher, oh no, lol. Nice to see a new high.
Suedazzles, was a Message board name, not opk, she could pick winners. Have not seen her post in 20 years, but she was sharp. U R more clever. That said, not sure I or anyone will figure out the subtlety of the name anne, curious trolls need to know. Unless U live on a tugboat, well, that dates me, hehe.
Fact is at one time these boards discussed the company, there were the attempts to manipulate, for sure, and on occasion, a MB post moved a stock. NOW, these boards are a wasteland. That said, when I am considering a stock, I know I will miss some upside. I figure if it is a good investment today, it will be a good investment in a month. If it moves too much I pass. The day a company, comes to my attention, I read weeks of posts on yahoo looking for the guy who KNOWS the company. I read 2 years of earnings reports, check chart history, compare to sector, dow, etc. Look at sector trends, etc.
That said I might look at a 100 companies, buy 1, but I do look at yahoo.
Opk, I found this at 2.25, and Drangles, and Ice were here, did I listen to them, no way. I missed and got in at 3.85 almost a full year later.
I walk slowly, move decisively, if it is good today, it will be good at a higher price, and I paid about 80% higher than I needed to. Point, I was COMFORTABLE.
Ice, Drangles are those I remember from before I owned, the board had 2 shorts, a women, name forgotten, and stewartcreek. The conversations were different, and fact is, or reasonably sure both ice, and drangles made money from companies those shorts discussed.
An example of board over DD is SU it dropped 2 points on NO NEWS, the Yahoo board knew it was the result of a Canadian election. I found nothing mentioned in the news on that impact for 2 days, but bought in after 10Q looking etc., but the board knew why, not one news wire. USE everything, even a board.
Ice, you are right, 110%, that said, I posted that particular post as a subtle dig to the shorts, nothing more nothing less. Comparing Opko to Opko, however, over the past 12 earnings period, regardless of misses or beats, nets an opko historic range that only applies to Opko. Last Q, the annual, about 1.00 range, but closed down .12, the average move, was historically .125 so that was likely the only one to ever hit the average. Last Q was an earnings and revenue miss. This move today, is an Opko anomaly, lol, one I was pointing out to the resident bashers. Obviously future earnings might not line up with the past, but I do know it was the biggest closing differential in the past 3 years, this one time.
So I was having fun pointing out the big earnings miss, but an up tape on revenue beat. : )
That 3.57% move is the biggest move EVER up or down on an earnings day. Curious too because it was the biggest earnings miss ever, lol, well on paper anyway. The revenue beat, was also the biggest ever, so forget the eps. Opko, keep missing big, but grow that revenue and all will be fine.
Yesterday was funny too, the short contingent was near giddy on the eps. miss, many supposed longs were nervous too. The revenue beat was the REAL news, not the 50m, paper loss, or one time 25m payment. Opko on pace for 40% revenue growth, that is what the smart investor saw and heard. 40% is the bottom of the range, no idea how much more than 40% it will be but I doubt Opko hits the bottom of the range.
Good luck to all longs. My condolences to the short contingent, no cigar today. Moment of silence for AOL shorts, ouch.
Opko has WAY TOO many shares to get to triple digits with no profits. At 100 it would have a market cap higher then regn, nissan motors, time warner, yahoo, kmb, DB, and many many others. They will need serious earnings to get to triple digits. Now if opko only had 35 million shares I might agree, but it is closer to 500m, shares which is a lot. At 100 opko would have a 45B market cap, granted amzn and tsla have no earnings and higher caps, but they are cult stocks. The good news is Opko should be profitable by mid/early 2017, so we can bring this back and talk about it when opk is in the 28-30 range.
If you look at the 10Q and look at the revenue from Spain, and Mexico those numbers were basically horrible, lol. Combined down about 4m. They did mention this on the call, Mexico was closed for part of the Q, now back operating, and in Spain they had to renegotiate a long term supplier contract. NOW if they get back the lost sales, 16m annual, 12m for remainder of year, Opko could have 140m in revenue. I assumed they got NONE of it back in my estimate above.
This is all good, people looking to eventually buy 40.92 million shares with average volume of about 2.28 million can not be a bad thing. Prior to the PFE announcement there were 48m short, so 8 mill covered. The stock is up sharply since the pfe announcement, that 8m cover certainly helped.
40.92m, a .79% increase from 40.61 on 4/15. 300k share increase roughly, the second lowest percent short in the past year, the 4/15 40.61 was the low point for the past 12 months.
Well, after thinking about it I realized I made a mistake. Eirgen last reported revenue was 10m annual, not quarterly. They said the pfe revenue will be taken in equal installments, of 12.5m per q, so if we did 30m in q1 in revenue, with Eirgen it should be roughly 32.5 million per q, or 127.5 annual before any uptick in 4k sales. So revenue is anticipated at 101m, needs move up to 127.5, which is 40% revenue growth from 2014/91m.
Sorry for messing up the eirgen revenue, but I did catch the mistake. The Eirgen revenue is the last reported number I could find and is from 2013 annual, so opko 2015 revenue of 127.5m should be a minimum. 40% Y/Y revenue growth still good.
The call is still available for rebroadcast at investor relations.