"Another issue is the possibility of UVXY being closed down. If this were to happen, OTM options would become worthless. I currently have some OTM Jan 2015 puts. I am thinking of hedging my long puts by selling OTM Jan 2015 calls. Not an ideal hedge, but at least this will protect me in the event that UVXY is closed down."
I believe that your assumptions are incorrect.
Options are a contract between the writer of the option and its buyer. Exercising that contract is NOT, I believe, contingent upon the underlying security being actively traded.
In other words, if you own UVXY Jan 2015 $8 puts and UVXY stops trading, the seller of your put, again to the best of my knowledge, if you wish to exercise, is still obliged to purchase X number of shares of worthless shares of UVXY from you for 8 bucks a share... Unfortunately you would lose your theta premium.
for fun I Googled "explosive alerts" as instructed just to read the disclaimet of this penny pumper:
"Explosive Alerts may receive compensation and its employees and affiliates may own stock that they have purchased in the open market either prior, during, or after the release of the companies profile which is an inherent conflict of interest in Explosive Alerts statements and opinions and such statements and opinions cannot be considered independent.
Explosive Alerts and its management may benefit from any increase in the share price of the profiled companies and hold the right to sell shares bought at any given time including shortly after the release of the companies profile.Explosive Alerts services may be paid for by using free-trading shares of the company being profiled. Explosive Alerts will be selling shares of the company’s stock at the same time the profile is being disseminated to potential investors; this should be viewed as a definite conflict of interest and as such, the reader should take this into consideration. Any and all compensation received whether it be in cash or free trading shares will always be disclosed below."
As my daughter might write: "LOL"!
"Can't argue with performance, possibility of delisting but it it's entrenched shorts that have drove this down move to the upside will be parabolic. Haven't followed long but looks to me like some life. Notice the gap up at opening on 8-15. The gap up indicates someone getting nervous."
With all due respect, I believe that you have NO IDEA how this instrument works. The "entrenched shorts" like myself have neither driven nor drove (sic) this instrument down. The persistent price erosion is due to contango and the oscillation beta decay of leveraged ETPs.
If you do not know what I am talking about, you would benefit from googleing and youtubing the topics.
"It implies 80 percent now of vxx is made of September contracts."
Yes, of course. I didn't understand the way the original statement was phrased.
September to spot contango is a robust 20%, as you know.
I calculate that if spot VIX closes at next Tuesday expiry unchanged at 12.31, VXX might drop another 8%. And there is now enough contango for VXX to remain unchanged, even if VIX rises a point in the next week!
Please explain to me...
"Spot VIX is very low. Interestingly though it is still 17% below the September VIX future which is over 80% of VXX's NAV. This would imply that spot VIX could go 10% higher and VXX would barely move."
You clearly understand the dance between VIX, VIX futures, and futures expiry. And I agree 100% that with the current huge contango between September and spot, spot could rise as you indicate with little movement in the September futures and, hence, little movement of VXX.
And certainly, VXX's intrinsic value correlates 100% minute to minute to the percentage change in the front two futures in relationship to that day's balance of futures in the computed VXX portfolio.
But I am clueless in regards to your comment: "...September VIX future which is over 80% of VXX's NAV."
The metric (back month future)/(VXX -NAV) has no meaning to me. Please explain your thinking.
"However I only had to wiz on the electrified cow fence once, to learn my lesson. As opposed to touching the fence again to make sure that that's what caused my "thang" to burn up!"
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."
--- Will Rogers
"Shorts get ready to eat crow ....that will be all you can afford."
Thanks for the kind words. There has been no need for me to budget food since I first shorted TVIX last January...
Crow? I don't think so. Actually, today is the second Friday of the month -- when Momma has her monthly TVIX road kill feast. Perhaps she'll be serving YOU next month!
"I hadn't looked at the Jan 2015 for at least a month. Now there are adjusted puts such as the 12’s that might give a great return (I'm projecting 35c to $2 by Jan 2015). Before the adjusted puts began trading, no UVXY 2015’s offered a potential ROI of 100%."
New strikes of post RS UVXY began trading. The old puts with strikes btwn 1-25 are the adjusted and have the relatively "poor" max ROI, imo.
Be careful, correcting some of these fella's is a full time job. Oh, and thankless of course.
Thanks for the shout-out!
And when you write "correcting" are you talking about the grammar and spelling of the "loosers" who "should of" attended their junior high school English class. Or are you writing about the "investors" "who's" heads are bursting with the idiocy that has already compressed their cerebral cortices to microscopic dimensions. Or the knuckleheads "loosing" money who think that comments about roll yield, contango, and beta decay (whatever that means) are off topic...
And "thankless"? Don't you enjoy your efforts being rewarded with a "moron". Even phisherman thanked me with "turd" last month. (I prefer "worthless piece of shyte").
PS: comments on several of you recent posts...
FBI? Been short since Jan on the big 3. Had a small buy in once on VXX in Feb only. Never on UVXY or TVIX.
re Jan 2015 puts. I agree that the theta is a killer. Better max ROI on Mar 2014 UVXY.
I hadn't looked at the Jan 2015 for at least a month. Now there are adjusted puts such as the 12’s that might give a great return (I'm projecting 35c to $2 by Jan 2015). Before the adjusted puts began trading, no UVXY 2015’s offered a potential ROI of 100%
Stay on the dark side,
"VELOCITYSHARES DAILY 2X VIX ST (PACF:TVIX) Strong Downtrend Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues negative longer term. Look for this market to remain weak. Strong Downtrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders."
Yes, TVIX is an eternal strong sell, but not for the reasons discussed in the bullshyte analysis above.
This is a derivative of a derivative of a derivative of a derivative of a derivative and an ETP to boot.
There are no market forces or market trends.
TA doesn't apply. TVIX correlates to intrinsic value but does trade at a fluctuating premium.
This is not a stock; there are no insiders.
The only strong forces are the front two VIX futures, contango, and beta decay.
You have demonstrated that you do not understand this complex instrument.
IMO, you should heed the wisdom below:
"If you can't identify it, don't stick it in your mouth."
--- Will Rogers
by dennisvan1 • Jul 30, 2013 7:25 AM
Do you guys believe Tvix will down to zero? I'm very nervous about this stock cause I'm still holding it
You were nervous with TVIX at $1.80 two weeks ago. Now down ANOTHER 15%. Are you more nervous???
Selling is a wiser choice than Xanax!
I hope you got out of TVIX last month and never looked back.
"I actually do not own any but find your confidence quite amusing."
Please don't ever consider owning any of these VIX proxies. I've read your old posts. You seem like a savvy speculator.
You've paid the tuition most VIX-proxy "investors" ante up at some time... Now it's time to play the dark side!
Best to ya,
"Every short going to school tomorrow
For the biggest short squeeze on history!"
This sucker responds only to its intrinsic value. A short squeeze is almost impossible. For a short squeeze to occur, UVXY would sell at a premium. It doesn't....
"brm1430611 • Aug 7, 2013 3:33 PM
How do you make any money then? If you would of bought UVXY for example you would of made money."
For example, if YOU had sold UVXY short yesterday or any day in history prior to August 2, you would HAVE made money.
Bustin, the grammar policeman and cynic
"Easy money is to short this mother it's always down no matter what!!"
So what's stopping you from seeking the easy money???
Just play the dark side and short it!
My pets and I have missed you.
You must mean lusob09, the elite world class day trader who scalps 37 cents per successful trade.
He posted today on TZA and SPY boards . I'd give you further disclosure but I won't unless you post some real time trades!
Actually, even more obnoxious earlier in year either here or in UVXYland was 'balastona' who frequently punctuated his pomposity with "mark this post" or "watch and learn"
"by balastona . Jan 26, 2013 6:19 PM .
The daily ratios change as fear and option activity changes, that is the dynamic that you shorts have not experienced from UVXY inception. The direction has changed and this is the type of instrument that technicals are actually the best method.
There is no earnings and market cap valuation to base your position on.
Come back in february and let me teach you why UVXY doubled"
I think Mama served him up in May during her monthly TVIX road kill bar-b-que!,
And let's not forger tvixer who posted the following idiocy on June 3:
"bustin_ur_chops • Jun 3, 2013 10:19 AM:
Tvixer writes: “Looking for TVIX to trade up to its 200dma around $9.40 (also to fill a big gap around $8)...think it will have enough momentum to exceed it and trade up to its neckline of $13.50 then retrace to test the 200dma for support. if it holds then it would produce a nice inverse H&S pattern...then I'll see ya at $44 and then utlimately $111”"
Nothing like necklines and bollybands on this derivative of a derivative of a derivative of a derivative of a derivative of a derivative!
Bustin, Contango the boxer, Backwardation the kittie, and RollYield the ferret
Symbol Last Chg
VIX 12.97 -0.21
VX Q3-CF 14.50 -0.30
VX U3-CF 15.90 -0.30
VX V3-CF 16.95 -0.30
VX X3-CF 17.65 -0.30
VX Z3-CF 18.25 -0.20
VX F4-CF 19.00 -0.20
VX G4-CF 19.55 -0.20
VX H4-CF 19.90 -0.15
VX J4-CF 20.25 -0.10
In the next four weeks spot will converge with Aug futures, Q3. There is very healthy contango at present. There might be days when spot is UP and futures are down.
Today, front to spot contango decreased.
Visit Khan Academy and watch the videos on futures markets, contango, roll yield, etc. Afterwards, you should understand!
"How about Vixy? Is it 1x of Sp500? Uvxy is at least tracking 2x of Vixy. And Tvix tracks Sp500 too."
"Now Uvxy up 0.39%, Vixy up 0.37%, Tvix up 1.58%.
This ETF does not functional as it says. Is it legal? Someone should sue ProShare."
First, none of these ETPs follow or purport to follow Sp500. They follow the proximal two month VIX futures.
Second, VIXY is an ETF with a market cap of ~$178 million. VXX is an ETN with a market cap of ~$1.4 billion. Neither are leveraged. They track each other.
Third, UVXY and TVIX have disparate minute to minute percentage changes because TVIX has sells at an ever-fluctuating premium to its intrinsic value. This premium has ranged from as low as zero (rarely) to over 12% since January. UVXY trades at a trivial premium, at most.
To find intrinsic value on Yahoo, use ^tvix-iv and ^uvxy-iv.
Perhaps if you post any more questions in this thread, Yahoo sould sue you for waste of bandwidth!
Form 8-K for SIGMA LABS, INC.
Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities, Other Events, Financial Statements and E
ITEM 3.02 Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities.
On July 18, 2013, Sigma Labs, Inc. (the "Company"), completed a private placement of 120,000,000 shares of the Company's common stock, $0.001 par value per share, for an aggregate offering price of $1,200,000. The shares were sold solely to accredited investors.
The Company issued the foregoing securities pursuant to an exemption from registration provided by Section 4(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Act"), and Regulation D promulgated thereunder, based upon each recipient's status as an "accredited investor," as that term is defined in Rule 501 promulgated under the Act.