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ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures Message Board

bustin_ur_chops 290 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 19, 2014 4:48 PM Member since: Mar 17, 2013
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  • Reply to

    tvix by the numbers

    by bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 9:39 AM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 10:23 PM Flag

    Excellent explanation Bustin. Any thoughts as to what is causing the pressure on the VIX futures? Some suspect Fed manipulation as one mechanism to keep upward pressure on the ES, etc. Not certain I buy that, but TVIX has been in these oversold zones before from a technical perspective (late January), and wonder if this is an opportunity? No doubt it ultimately depends on the general market direction, and there are multiple crosscurrents occurring, and still only a percent or two from historic highs (Dow & S&P 500). My crystal ball is very cloudy:)

    Thanks, ftp:

    First, with all due respect, one cannot perform traditional t.a. on TVIX or the other VIX proxies. TVIX cannot be oversold or undersold. Short interest is moot. Moving averages, dojos, candlesticks irrelevant.

    If you want to fully understand how TVIX works, you need to begin with understanding how the futures market works. You need to understand the terms contango and roll yield. You must understand the dance between the spot VIX and the front two VIX futures. You need to know how VXX is constructed. You need to understand the mathematics involved with leveraged (levered) ETPs. You need to understand ETN vs. ETF.

    You should start with the excellent videos at Khan Academy regarding futures and contango. You can find other videos searching on YouTube.

    Most of the articles on the topic on Seeking Alpha as fair, but the reader commentary is often excellent.

    Cheers,

    Bustin

  • bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 10:15 PM Flag

    "TVIX is indeed a scam"

    No, TVIX is NOT a scam. It delivers exactly as promised in its prospectus and its chart will continuously asymptotically follow a path towards zero until the note is retired.

    Why not take advantage of its penultimate destiny. I do and TVIX pays for my daughter's tuition...

    Bustin

  • Reply to

    Longs stay long

    by franciscandoitall May 21, 2014 11:46 AM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 10:11 PM Flag

    "Don't let the strong hands force the weak hands."

    There are no "strong" or "weak" hands at play. TVIX tracks its intrinsic/indicative value which is a mathematical equation. It couldn't care less about volume, candlesticks, dojos, moving averages, or even those nefarious "shorts".

    Bustin

  • Reply to

    Longs stay long

    by franciscandoitall May 21, 2014 11:46 AM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 10:08 PM Flag

    "I lost patience with this stock"

    TVIX is not a stock.

    It is an ETN which happens to be a derivative of a derivative of a derivative of a derivative of a derivative.

    Bustin

  • Reply to

    Economy is in the tank again

    by chip_8086 May 21, 2014 11:09 AM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 10:06 PM Flag

    "The problem is more than just the drop it is the reverse split that destroys investors money. A 10 for 1 split and within 6 months that stock is less than your shares now. So, 9 of your shares have been destroyed for 0 worth. If they would just let the stock sink it would be fine. Also on a reverse split the split should not be recorded as a high for the stock it is misleading. If anyone hears of a split please post it and get the Hell out fast."

    From the viewpoint of portfolio value splits, both forward and backward, are absolutely MOOT.

    For example, let's make an assumption that I was short 10000 shares of TVIX on March 4, 2013, at $4.62 before the last 1:10 reverse split, my short account had a balance of -$46200. Today I would be short just 1000 shares and need to pay $4640 to close out my short position.

    Had there been no reverse split, I would still need to spend the exact same $4640 to close out my position. But I would still be short 10000 shares but TVIX would be trading for 46.4 cents.

    And without a doubt, most likely, absent a reverse split, in 12 to 15 months TVIX WILL be trading for ~ 46 cents.

    The reverse split DID NOT destroy the value of TVIX.

    The relentless deterioration of TVIX was caused by contango and the so called β decay inherent to levered and inverse ETPs.

    Bustin

    If you don't understand what I am talking about, you shouldn't be swimming the the TVIX mire...

  • Reply to

    fed, bob, e.m. ...

    by bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 7:38 PM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 9:52 PM Flag

    "Bustin - I am okay for the truce and will also be removing the IGGY placed on EM once a) he stops associating me with BOB b) agrees to disagree and stops posting his nonsense c) removes the EM handle he created when the EM scare was the hour of the day which no longer exists with SVXY at all time highs ..

    I am highly sophisticated in everything I do and it is not to my liking that I was forced to TRASH down EM. I can stop with that provided he agrees to the above conditions '

    Thanks, fed.

    I've read just about every post on all 4 Y! VIX proxy boards for the past 18 months just hoping to find a pearl or golden nugget that might add to my fund of knowledge. But the noise to signal ratio is usually deafening.

    I remember when all of you guys were civil to each other and really don't fully understand how the civility devolved to the nastiness and relentless "idiot!" and "moron!" and other insensitivity.

    Actually I think that e.m. has made some very enlightening comments that has given me food for thought. And both you and Bob make excellent points as well. But all three of you at times have become a bit obnoxious hammering the same point over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. Please, say what you need to say once or twice and move on. And just respectfully disagree with the others point of view.

    I have participated in investing bulletin boards since prior to the web-browser dating back to alt.finance and Prodigy, Compuserve and AOL. A bulletin board is a community; a healthy bulletin board is one where civility rules and juvenile and hateful behavior is not tolerated.

    Bustin

  • bustin_ur_chops by bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 7:38 PM Flag

    Please drop the animus!

    Please agree to disagree. At least all of you understand the basics of svxy and hopefully are all making money. Your juvenile bickering ruins the one halfway readable proxy bb here on Y! You guys are above this!

    Instead, please redirect your cynicism and sarcasm to the TVIX board where a dozen knuckleheads, who refuse to educate themselves, hold a continuous pity-party circle jerk using their favorite terms "manipulated", "conspiracy", "criminals", and, of course, "SCAM!!!" They are truly pathetic and obnoxious and deserve all the scorn that you can send their way.

    Thanks,

    Bustin

  • bustin_ur_chops by bustin_ur_chops May 21, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    Both VXX and TVIX are ETNs, electronically traded notes. They hold no assets. Their value is derived from a mathematical formula.

    Because they hold no assets, they have no NAV, net asset value. Instead the industry uses the term, IV, indicative value interchangeable with intrinsic value.

    VXX and her IV are rarely identical; there usually is a trivial premium or discount. TVIX has traded at a significant premium for years. It peaked at 10% last spring and now fluctuates on a daily basis btwn 2-6%. Because of that fluctuating premium and other misconceptions, most folk believe that TVIX is “broken”.

    VXX is essentially the S&P 500 VIX short-term futures index. The VXX-IV minute to minute percentage changes are identical to that of this index. Yahoo publishes the indicative value of VXX as ^VXX-IV. This is updated realtime every 15 seconds.

    Y! not longer provides the ^TVIX-IV but it is provided by some brokers. The TVIX-IV is updated at the velocitysharesetns slash TVIX every evening.

    Mon value:

    TVIX-IV $4.69
    closing price $4.83

    One can calculate the premium of $.14 or 3%.

    Tues close

    TVIX-IV 4.72
    TVIX close 4.74

    Premium has shrunk to 0.7% at close.

    on a day to day basis, the percentage change of TVIX-IV is x2 that of the percentage change of VXX-IV.

    Tues closing VXX-IV 36.06, up 0.27%
    Tues closing TVIX-IV 4.72, up 0.64% (in the ballpark with rounding error). AND disconnected with closing TVIX, which was DOWN.

    Because the premium of TVIX may expand or contract day to day, there is no perfect correlation to VXX.

    Over the course of days, weeks, months there is NO correlation to VXX because both levered and inverse ETPs suffer from so call β decay. Google or YouTube “leveraged inverse ETF decay” to get a detailed explanation.

    Regardless, play the dark side of TVIX instead of playing the lottery ticket and watching your portfolio shrink.

    Bustin

  • Reply to

    VXX 5/20/14

    by goodoptday May 20, 2014 4:23 PM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 8:29 PM Flag

    "I still have my VXX core shorts"

    OptionGuy: time for one more quick comment.

    Why be short VXX at all? Why give up the β decay of TVIX or VXX? Superimpose a chart of VXX, SVXY, and UVXY and locate a VXX "round trip" over a oeriod of several months. While VXX is unchanged, SVXY and UVXY will always decline in price.

    I'll have to assume that you don't wish to recognize those delicious gains.

    I might buy a debit put spread in VXX if the numbers are right. And I might very briefly buy VXX as a VIX spike is developing. But I never, never short it. No reason to...

    Bustin

  • Reply to

    VXX 5/20/14

    by goodoptday May 20, 2014 4:23 PM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    "So if I'm understanding this correctly, goodoptday is going long volatility by selling OTM calls? A change in outlook? I really don't understand these derivatives of derivatives. I went long VXX today (spot vix of 12.5 at the time), but I'm of course open to better ways to buy vol. Suggestions?"

    lesserfool,

    Credit yourself for recognizing that VXX is a derivative of a derivative (of a derivative of a derivative of a derivative).

    Yes, selling calls of SVXY could be construed as going long volatility.

    But you can also look at things this way; because one can make projections every month based on the VIX futures expiry, when the VIX is this low, one might envision a max possible price for SVXY in 4 weeks and sell a call based on that "guess".

    If you "must" buy vol, i would buy VXX and never UVXY or TVIX because the latter two suffer from the so called β decay of levered ETPs. Or you might wish to shorttSVXY or but debit call spreads of VXX or UVXY. or put spreads of SVXY.

    But I'm permashort vol with an occasional partial hedge of short SVXY calls...

    Bustin_the_greaterfool

  • Reply to

    THE BEST TIME TO BUY TVIX? NEVER!

    by outsidetoinside May 16, 2014 11:20 AM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 8:00 PM Flag

    " It obviously seems this etf is not honest time over time based on the major market index."

    "VIX should move based on major indexes."

    "Someone should pay for this corruption."

    "It obviously seems" that you invested in an instrument that you do not understand. It has nothing to do with a major index. And it has just a bit to do with the spot VIX. But it has everything to do with a rolling composition of the front two months VIX futures.

    NO corruption here. Sadly you paid for your ignorance regarding TVIX.

    Bustin

    PS Google or YouTube "contango" and "leveraged etf decay"

  • bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    "VIX should move based on major indexes."

    Why should it? It is a derivative based on a derivative, the implied volatility of a select group of options....

    Bustin

  • Reply to

    VXX 5/20/14

    by goodoptday May 20, 2014 4:23 PM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    "Sold 5 SVXY Jun OTM calls."

    I think that you may be several days too soon. If the nearly identical numbers (VIX and futures) from last January repeat themselves, I'm hoping for another 2% drop in June futures and 2% gain in SVXY by the end of the week.

    Then, I'll be slamming those June OTM SVXY calls as well.

    Just my opinion, amigo!

    Bustin

    1/17/14 1/22/14 5/16/2014
    ^VIX 12.44 12.84 12.44
    front future 13.45 13.25
    back future 14.25 13.85 14.65
    VXX 41.13 39.97 36.55
    UVXY 15.54 14.70 44.50
    TVIX 6.83 6.51 5.01
    SVXY 139.51 143.26 70.36

  • Reply to

    Hilarious ETN...

    by deuxtrax May 20, 2014 4:14 PM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    "Heck, even short side of the trade stinks."

    Works for me. Speak for yourself, John Alden...

    Bustin Mullins

  • bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 5:06 PM Flag

    the indicative value of VXX closed up 0.27% for the day while VXX closed down 0.89% The June futures spurted up a dime by the close of futures trading @ 1615, after the proxies stopped trading for the regular session.

    Bustin

  • bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    em:

    This month's VIX proxy cycle ends with tomorrow's SOQ, special opening quote of VIX, based on first print.

    As always, SVXY is ONLY 100% correlated with VIX futures and will have 95% correlation today with the June futures. As Ralph stated, expecting correlation to the SPY, DJI, the bhat, or the price of tea in China will just frustrate you.

    The problem is that CBOE provides futures quotes with a ten minute delay. Hence, we may see wild fluctuations in SVXY before they are reflected in the delayed futures quotes.

    As a retail player, I do not have access to realtime futures quotes.

    Hopes this helps,

    Bustin

  • Reply to

    just a 1% drop...

    by bustin_ur_chops May 19, 2014 2:47 PM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    That 1% drop in June futures has arrived

    New all time high SVXY now @72.13 at last.

    If VIX remains unchanged through Friday, June futures could fall below 14, and we might see SVXY hit 74!

    Bustin

  • Reply to

    just a 1% drop...

    by bustin_ur_chops May 19, 2014 2:47 PM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Food for thought

    Last week the VIX was identical to where the VIX was the week before expiry in January. In January, the back future dropped all the way to 13.85

    1/17/14 1/22/14 5/16/2014
    ^VIX 12.44 12.84 12.44
    front future 13.45 13.25
    back future 14.25 13.85 14.65
    VXX 41.13 39.97 36.55
    UVXY 15.54 14.70 44.50
    TVIX 6.83 6.51 5.01
    SVXY 139.51 143.26 70.36

    current:

    VIX 12.42 -0.02
    VX K4-CF 12.95 -0.05
    VX M4-CF 14.35 +0.00

    13.85 represents another 3.5% drop from where we are now which, if it occurs, will result in a possible $2.50 gain in SVXY in the next week!

    Bustin_with_Data

  • Reply to

    will be 7+ on friday

    by southi25 May 19, 2014 4:19 PM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 20, 2014 7:45 AM Flag

    "Credit Suisse pleads guilty in US tax evasion case! That proves that TVIX is JUNK!"

    This is just incredible LOGIC!!! And debated fiercely by Twiddledee and Twiddledum in "Through the Looking Glass"!

    'I know what you're thinking about,' said Tweedledum; 'but it isn't so, nohow.'

    'Contrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, 'if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.'

    Bustin_with_Incredulity

  • Reply to

    all vix futures were up today..

    by screenplays2000 May 19, 2014 5:21 PM
    bustin_ur_chops bustin_ur_chops May 19, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    "but uvxy goes down 2.6%? that makes sense"

    May 16, 2014 May 19, 2014
    ^VIX 12.44 12.42
    VX 05/21/2014 13.25 13.0000 -1.89%
    VX 06/18/2014 14.65 14.3500 -2.05%
    ^UVXY-IV 44.80 42.967 -4.09%

    whaddayatalkinabout???

    UVXY holds ~95% June VIX futures. They were down 2.05%. UVXY was down x2 that amount.

    Bustin

UVXY
25.48+0.42(+1.68%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

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