Yeah I think BBX has a reply due by around June 10th or something like that. I believe that will be the last response before the judge schedules a decision. I believe the judge will also eventually rule on some other motions by BBX to overturn the verdict. So we're probably looking at July or possibly August for some kind of final ruling I would think.
The main purpose of the tender is so that a) they can file a consolidated group tax return and b) Bluegreen can pay dividends to BFCF & BBX without being taxed (before it was 80% deduction, now it's 100%).
In fact BFC/Woodbridge/Bluegreen can't utilize all or most of BBX's NOL's and that actually came up in the meeting. BFC can't net $17.6 million anyway. BBX owns and sells the property. BFC only owns 80% of BBX so if they really wanted the cash BBX would need to issue a dividend to all shareholders. I don't expect BBX to do this. If they drain BBX of cash then BBX wouldn't be able to make more investments in cash generating assets that would be able to utilize those NOL's.
Yep. I attended the annual meeting today. Got to ask Mr. Levan some questions, chatted with Seth Wise, Leo Hinkley (Investor Relations), and chatted with a couple of other private investors who probably have a lot more invested than I do. I can't say I came away with a ton of new information, but the discussions did tend to reaffirm my belief in the value of the company. A couple of things I learned though:
- The BBX Sweets business after all the 'noise' from expenses to integrate the companies (legal costs, organization restructuring, etc.) will be profitable. I was worried they were just buying a bunch of money losing assets which was not the case. They continually talk about buying businesses that will provide steady cash flow. I didn't really ask about Renin though although I probably should have.
- Someone asked about why BFCF didn't buy the extra shares that were tendered and it's basically because it could jeopardize BBX's listing on the NYSE. The same goes for a buyback at BBX at the moment.
- Due to the NOL's the $17.6M sale will be tax free (federal at least, not sure about state).
- The property in Bonterra that is being sold to a third party is still going through the entitlement process. CG - Did you say you thought the buyer was Lennar? They didn't confirm but I got that impression from one of my conversations. The JV with CC Devco at Bonterra is going well and they don't even have an onsite sales office there yet.
- I asked about the sales at Bluegreen and they said they still expect things to continue to improve and that the sales and marketing efforts will pay off. Levan mentioned something internally they did which might have had a small one time effect on sales, but didn't really go into detail.
If I think of anything else I'll let you know.
And I can say if 8150 got much lower the chances of IMOS shareholders approving a deal based on where 8150 is trading are diminishing.
Well I can tell you according to Bloomberg 8150 is trading at a 10.33 forward PE while Chipbond is trading at a 14.33 forward PE. That's before you take into account 8150 has about twice the cash as Chipbond and less debt (according to Morningstar) and trades at about 75% of the market cap that Chipbond does.
I would probably ignore him. His cash comparison is silly anyway (they did purchase a company and a note for a piece of land over the last year). It's not like they are burning through cash for operations. The news was very good. Higher sales, increased backlog, using cash to build inventory. The two big projects should start seeing some revenue this quarter and really ramp up next FY. Plus looks like they are getting some other orders and new customers. They might need to get some debt financing is if they need to spend more to build more inventory, but I don't expect them to be burning through cash now.
The one analyst asked about the conversion in the beginning of the Q&A and I think the way everyone understood management's response is just wait till the ThailLin merger is complete and then we can proceed. If management fails to announce something within a few weeks after the merger is done I think there might be a lot of unhappy investors again.
Understood. It does seem to be what the whole industry is saying though. As you mention Q4 was the strongest IMOS has ever experienced which is probably one of the reasons there has been an oversupply in the first half. I don't think the semiconductor industry is exactly done growing worldwide. So I guess if they can get back to 'normal' 2H levels and assuming the industry is still growing as a whole (especially 4K TV) and maybe they are winning some additional business I don't think it's unrealistic. As you said they are normally quite conservative although they shot themselves in the foot by saying 5-10% growth last quarter and I think they realize that. Even the 3-5% they are guiding for SK says "I think it should be in 3% to 5% growth, sequentially. I think that's a conservative estimation based on our current business situations.". The way that sounds to me is he still thinks there could be upside from the 3-5%.
There is no doubt everyone is disappointed and frustrated at this point. Despite all the turmoil I still think IMOS is pretty damn cheap especially compared to a lot of other stocks out there. Even with 8150 down as much as it is IMOS is trading at a nice discount.
Well they did $191M and $183M for 2014Q3 and 2014Q4 respectively last year ($374M total). To get to $402M that would imply about 7% growth over last year. I wouldn't call that gangbusters, but it's nice growth. However according to everything I'm looking at revenue for 2014 was $696.4M, not $704.4M which would imply 5% growth over second half last year.
So basically they've cut back estimates from 5-10% revenue growth to 3-5%. Sucks, but I guess not surprising with the inventory correction issues going on in the semi industry. Even still I'm guessing they should be able to earn $2+ for the year? I'll be curious to see how the stock reacts tomorrow as well as 8150 tonight. Thailin merger closes in about 5 weeks and one would hope management announces the IMOS conversion in very short order