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LeapFrog Enterprises Inc. Message Board

buy_buy_buy_123 129 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2015 1:26 PM Member since: Nov 18, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Money in Bermuda

    by stechsjj Jul 22, 2015 10:09 AM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 22, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    stech - Not exactly sure what you are asking. It's easy to check the cash balance from IMOS from the last Q. You just need to add $30M from the dividend that was just paid out. You can also find 8150's balance sheet (you'll need to convert from NT dollars to USD).

  • Reply to

    Money in Bermuda

    by stechsjj Jul 22, 2015 10:09 AM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 22, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Does anyone even know IMOS's exposure to Apple (not that the numbers were that bad anyway)? I read an article from May that said Novatek won part of Apple's LCD business (I think 15-20%). Before they used Synaptics solely. I wonder if Novatek will use IMOS for that business.

  • Reply to

    8150 crashed?

    by ecoli00001 Jul 21, 2015 10:25 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 22, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    This is a lot more than not trusting management. I think they've done a horrible job handling the conversion and buybacks as much as anyone, but most of the reason for the stock drop is due to concerns in the semi conductor market about China smartphone demand. I personally think that the overreaction in IMOS stock price is partly due to a lack of understanding about their business and growth drivers. Ultimately what they say on the conference call about earnings for the rest of the year is going to have a much bigger impact on the stock than the timing of the conversion at this point.

  • Reply to

    Money in Bermuda

    by stechsjj Jul 22, 2015 10:09 AM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 22, 2015 10:17 AM Flag

    IMOS has $91 million in cash in Bermuda. They had $61M before and just received a $30M dividend.

    8150 has about $180M in net cash and IMOS owns 58% of 8150.

  • Reply to

    8150 crashed?

    by ecoli00001 Jul 21, 2015 10:25 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 22, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    IMOS could pretty much earn a buck for the year at this point and be fairly valued.

  • Reply to

    Ground hog day-again

    by sean777007 Jul 9, 2015 3:40 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 20, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    Thank you.

  • Reply to

    Ground hog day-again

    by sean777007 Jul 9, 2015 3:40 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 20, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    Has anybody communicated with SJ/SK directly to confirm when the buyback will begin?

  • Reply to

    Ground hog day-again

    by sean777007 Jul 9, 2015 3:40 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 20, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    turt - That's true about the 4%+ share reduction with the buyback. However if they wait until mid-September to begin we may not see much of that in the Q3 results. The conversion buyback, if they ever bother to announce it, probably won't take place this year.

    Regarding Toshiba, since they haven't discussed it (as far I know) I have no idea when to expect that revenue to pop up or for that matter how much. Even if it does start now the ramp up could take many months. Did the recent news story about them receiving equipment even say what it was for? Have SK or SJ ever discussed this opportunity specifically?

    I agree China could be a big deal, but again If it does happen the timing of any type of announcement is up in the air. The rest of the business will eventually bounce back, but how they guide on the Q3 call will be what people focus on.

    jam - That 1.75 target seems to be from one analyst (not sure who) so I'd like to know how they are coming to their conclusions, not just some meaningless number they throw out. I'd also be curious to know what the other analysts are targeting.

  • Reply to

    Ground hog day-again

    by sean777007 Jul 9, 2015 3:40 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 19, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    Thanks. I wanted to see how the analysts are modeling IMOS earnings.

    I've been doing a lot of research this weekend trying to figure out how IMOS earnings will be for the rest of the year. I've been reading articles about different markets such as LCD drivers, smartphones, TV, computers. I found some good articles unfortunately I can't post the links here. It's definitely a mixed bag and hard to get a grasp on.

    The LCD driver market is definitely the bright spot for IMOS. This probably sets it apart from a company like Amkor (that and the fact that Amkor has about $1B in net debt while IMOS is about 1/3 net cash). While TV sales aren't great in general, 4K TV's are growing quite fast and there seems to be a push by manufacturers to sell a lot of 4K TV's this year. Smartphone sales will improve in the 2nd half, but how much remains the question. Monitor sales are very weak . I don't personally expect to see huge rebound in PC demand due to Windows 10.

    The thing that keeps nagging me is the 'conservative' 3-5% revenue increase number given by management on that last call and trying to figure out how they get there. July is going to have to be a big M/M increase to meet those numbers. Honestly I think if they reiterate 3-5% on the call that would be great. I don't think the analysts seem to believe it. Is there some new business from Toshiba or someone else? They certainly don't mention anything on the call.

  • Reply to

    Ground hog day-again

    by sean777007 Jul 9, 2015 3:40 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 19, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    Does anyone have any of the recent analyst reports?

  • Reply to

    Ground hog day-again

    by sean777007 Jul 9, 2015 3:40 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 18, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    What a joke. So what was the purpose of making the announcement now if it's going to take two more months to begin the buyback?

  • Reply to

    ACLS updated its guidance

    by oak.martin Jul 16, 2015 11:30 AM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2015 10:14 PM Flag

    Hi. New to this stock and doing some research after reading a Seeking Alpha article on the stock. If you are referring to the presentation it says that financial outlook was from May 5th, so I'm not sure that's really 'updated' guidance per se. Just the same guidance they gave from last quarter.

    Regards.

  • Reply to

    TBT Oct. '14

    by jmft.rm Jul 17, 2015 11:19 AM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    royco - Waiting for a sign that the IMOS selling has stopped before I'd do anything. I'd like to see 8150 and 6147 stop nosediving as well.

  • Reply to

    TBT Oct. '14

    by jmft.rm Jul 17, 2015 11:19 AM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    Thanks for the reminder turt. Forgot about that. Of course if that were the case they should have announced it a month ago.

  • Reply to

    TBT Oct. '14

    by jmft.rm Jul 17, 2015 11:19 AM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 17, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    eco - My guess is mostly smaller investors and funds. Most bigger funds like Baupost are not going to panic into this selloff and are longer term investors.

    I haven't bought yet since I probably own too much already, but if it does get much lower I might hit the trigger. A lot of this seems like capitulation and no longer based on any type of fundamentals. Even with the adjusted EPS targets I see on E*TRADE and Yahoo of $1.74 for this year that puts the P/E at under 8 when subtracting out IMOS Bermuda and their portion of Taiwan cash. For this year it seems those analysts don't even believe IMOS will hit the 3-5% revenue growth they claim so the bar seems to be at least set low.

    Of course as altoid9992000 mentioned they should be implementing their buyback Now... Not waiting 30 days. I emailed management earlier, but they have stopped responding to me so it's more to vent than anything.

  • Reply to

    feasibility

    by bamajoe20715 Jul 16, 2015 1:56 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 16, 2015 6:10 PM Flag

    Sean - As much as I am mad at management I think the notion that management would or could hold down 8150 is misguided. For one thing why would they do it now if they aren't going to announce a merger for months. Also just look at how 6147 has acted and you can see 8150 isn't alone.

    I think the real question is how will earnings and guidance be? If they stick with their 3-5% revenue increase for the year I think the rest will take care of itself. If they lower guidance again that would be really disheartening. Considering they went from 10% to 3-5% (which they called conservative on the call) I hope they gave themselves plenty of breathing room.

  • Reply to

    The Best Thing BBX Could do...

    by ttullio3 Jul 14, 2015 4:57 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 16, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    Nope.

  • Reply to

    The Best Thing BBX Could do...

    by ttullio3 Jul 14, 2015 4:57 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 16, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    Whatever. I understand your question just fine. I'm telling you what Levan told me. How many times do I have to explain that. If you have a problem with what he's saying go call him yourself.

  • Reply to

    The Best Thing BBX Could do...

    by ttullio3 Jul 14, 2015 4:57 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 16, 2015 7:57 AM Flag

    Good question. I still see no new scheduled court date. Still at least looking forward to earnings in several weeks.

  • Reply to

    The Best Thing BBX Could do...

    by ttullio3 Jul 14, 2015 4:57 PM
    buy_buy_buy_123 buy_buy_buy_123 Jul 16, 2015 7:51 AM Flag

    Yes, I understood fine. According to Levan it's the same issue if BBX buys back its own shares. It could still jeopardize BBX's NYSE listing. I don't know all the rules behind this, but I personally asked Levan about this during the Q&A session.

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