With low oil prices, chances of defaults are minor unless there is a 2008-level global recession. AER is pricing in a lot worse situation than the markets and the data suggest.
AER up today, finally.
I bought homeowners in the mid 1990s when they were selling for 4x PE, and one of them ended up getting bought into DHI and being a 4-5x bagger for me. The sector was just 'out of favor' nothing more.
This feels the same way. There are issues, but the business model and debt structure look fine.
With a PE of 5, you can buy AER itself and you are getting the equivalent of a 20% earnings yield.
The falcon wing doors are stupid on many levels. One is that they are impractical in any 2 car garage, or even one car garage with overhead.
Rich guys with huge garages who dont have to park in cramped parking lot spots wont get it, but the doors are NOT for real daily use vehicles. Its a fantasy idea for a fantasy car and reality will crash that party.
Looks nice but for real world, the boring minivan sliding door works 10 times better.
Should have saved it for the sports model.
Pump and dumps rob muppets of money. Are you part of the pump and dump operation or are you a muppet about to get skinned?
I am in some of his funds too. they are 'meh' okay. He made a good call buying early, but his estimates are way optimistic. Even if he's right, it wont be much of a return.
BMW has $83B in revenues and a market cap of about the same. So if Tesla does exactly what he says it does, its a double, but anything less and tsla will lower.
Tried shorting via calls, got burned. Wouldnt be surprised if the short-covering is whats powering it higher.
If so, the flame out when it happens will be big. But it looks like it will stay elevated at least thru earnings in Oct/Nov.
Natural gas hybrids would be the cheapest way to go here in the usa as well, so long at nat gas stays cheap.
Ford, GM, BMW, Nissan with billions of dollars and taxpayers help haven't been able to do anything close to what the Tesla is."
huh? Chevy volt has just as much range and you dont even have to find a charging station. And it costs much much less.
Prius a failure? Not really. One of Toyota's top sellers now.
Paying $80,000 to save gas money is poor economic decision.
They are buying Tesla for image not realism.
conversion helps the balance sheet by lower LT debt. But you are right, its also dilution, so the miniscule book value/share gets reduced a bit. Its questionable whether that matters to stockholders as nobody is owning this as a value stock.
"Musk knows this and cannot comment. "
Musk made comments that were practically an admission TLSA stock is overpriced. As in that its pricing in years of good execution.
This sure explains the price action, if GS is in on the ups and downs.
translation: expect TSLA to propped up above $160 for next 30 days, then expect the hammer to drop sometime in Q4 after the distribution of the converted shares.
EOY price target: $120.
"16M non-GAAP income from early payment of DoE loan."
What does that even mean? How do you make money on a loan? or they ignored a writedown? If so, why is that 'earnings'. So I can invent some 'non-GAAP earnings' that randomly excludes costs I dont want in the report? bizarre.
IMHO it will trade lower / less exhuberantly than the AH but what do I know.
my gut says short term 'volatile' longterm 'sell over $100/sh'.
Actually 700 miles would need about 3 stops of 30 mins each (driving to the site and waiting) so add 1hr 30 mins. Tesla model S is not a long-distance car for anyone but slowpokes, and neither will any BEV without a gas tank be.
". Will be a 5000 unit sales company for H2. " A car web site cited 1400 Tesla model S sales for July. That's only 8400 for H2 run rate. Not sure where they got that number, its odd Tesla doesnt release them themselves.
Tesla is on the hook for buying back every car sold that way. That's a liability on the books.