With low oil prices, chances of defaults are minor unless there is a 2008-level global recession. AER is pricing in a lot worse situation than the markets and the data suggest.
AER up today, finally.
I bought homeowners in the mid 1990s when they were selling for 4x PE, and one of them ended up getting bought into DHI and being a 4-5x bagger for me. The sector was just 'out of favor' nothing more.
This feels the same way. There are issues, but the business model and debt structure look fine.
With a PE of 5, you can buy AER itself and you are getting the equivalent of a 20% earnings yield.